Sebastian Hess

A Meta‐Analysis of General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda

Model-based simulation of welfare effects is commonly used to make a case for trade liberalisation and to inform participants and stakeholders in trade negotiations. However, the simulated welfare effects of trade liberalisation vary greatly, even across studies that model similar liberalisation scenarios. This undermines confidence in the reliability of model-based simulations. A meta-analysis of over 100 studies that model WTO Doha Development Agenda trade negotiation outcomes is employed to identify characteristics of models, databases and liberalisation experiments that influence simulated welfare effects. Meta-regressions produce plausible results and explain a significant proportion of the variation in simulated welfare effects in a representative sample of Doha Development Agenda trade liberalisation studies. Results also reveal that many quantitative trade policy simulation studies fail to adequately document the assumptions and data on which they are based. Copyright 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Consumer Willingness to Pay for Safer Vegetables in Urban Markets of a Developing Country: The Case of Kale in Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract The rapid urban population growth, rising level of urban poverty, and problems with food supply and distribution systems have increased the importance of developing local supplies of perishable produce of safe and good nutritional value in developing countries. This examination of consumer preferences for food safety across major urban fresh vegetable market categories revealed that the explanations behind purchase intentions were market segment-specific. There is a need to target agricultural policies relating to handling practices and for public health policies to be more differentiated in promoting food safety.

Conceptualizing Path Dependence through Discourse Analysis: The Case of Seasonal Farm workers in Germany

This article introduces discourse analysis as a theoretical concept and an empirical methodology that may enable the endogenization of path creation and path breaking changes in conventional models of political path dependencies. Economic criteria such as rents created by a policy do not always provide a comprehensive explanation for path dependent political decisions. Discourse theory implies that specific interpretative schemata and narratives, such as story lines in the mass media, heavily influence the political discourse. Discourses themselves exercise a constitutive power that constrains decision-making processes and, thus, influence the ensuing policy creation path. Hence, discourses must be taken into account when political path creation is analysed. In this paper we trace over time individual story lines that represent important elements of the discourse underlying the restriction of seasonal farm workers from central and eastern European countries in Germany. We illustrate how dominant speakers and their story lines have been and currently are interacting to shape this policy.

A preliminary analysis of the impact of a Ukraine-EU free trade agreement on agriculture

Agriculture including food products is of particular interest for Ukraine. However, in free trade agreements involving the European Union, agriculture is always given special treatment and subject to less and slower liberalization than other sectors. This paper employs the standard Global Trade Analysis Project model in order to assess how World Trade Organization accession affects agriculture in Ukraine, and how potential bilateral tariff cuts may interact with potential productivity gains within Ukrainian agriculture. The results indicate that, due to trade liberalization, Ukraine can expect gains from a more efficient allocation of its resources in line with comparative advantage, leading to an increase of production and exports of wheat, other grains, and oilseeds, but also of several processed food products that benefit from less expensive intermediate inputs. However, Ukraines exports are concentrated on a small number of destinations, especially Russia and some other Former Soviet Union countries because they fail to meet quality standards elsewhere. When Ukrainian production of these products increases due to increased allocative efficiency, exports to Russia increase further and prices there fall, generating negative terms of trade effects that largely offset the allocative gains. Ukrainian imports of agricultural products increase as well, partly because Ukrainian consumers switch to higher quality imported goods even though domestic production increases. Regarding free trade agreement negotiations with the European Union, these results highlight for Ukraine the fact that improved agricultural productivity will help to get most out of improved market access. However, the results also highlight for Ukraine the great importance of adopting internationally accepted quality standards in order to diversify its export structure.

Cross-Atlantic Differences in Biotechnology and GMOs: A Media Content Analysis

Different regulations about the permission and approval rate of biotechnology and genetically modified organisms (GMOs) between the USA and Europe have been controversial for decades. While there is a wide scientific coverage of what may be the cause of this divergence, little is known about the role that popular media play in the related political discourse. We analyzed the media coverage of biotechnology topics in both the USA and UK from 2011-2013 by examining two opinion-leading newspapers. We test the hypothesis that the respective media content reflects differences in transatlantic policies towards biotechnology. The two newspapers differed in reporting intensity but were alike in their content about GMOs: with the central actors being scientists and NGOs, arguing mostly in the field of the agricultural sector, the debate seems to be locked in a stalemate of potential risks re-iterated against potential benefits, with none of the two positions clearly dominating the discourse.

Reviewing changing institutional conditions for private farming in Russia

The dominant organizations of agricultural production (kolkhozes and sovkhozes) have become obsolete with independence and the abolition of the Soviet era’s planned economy. These organizations had to be restructured and family farms, or more generally private farms, were intended to form the new backbone of farm production. However, development since then has been difficult. Based on a literature review, this study reviews and assesses this development in terms of the changing institutional conditions. The Russian government’s policies, by interchangeably supporting large-scale farming organizations or private farming, have created uncertainties for private farmers. Russian farmers were once strongly influenced by the mentality from Soviet times, but there are indications now that they are gaining strength, possibly as a consequence of a more benevolent political order, more entrepreneurial attitudes and developing organizational arrangements.

Social capital in Russian agricultural production co-operatives

When the Soviet kolkhozy and sovkhozy were converted, a large number of agricultural production co-operatives was created. Most of these co-operatives still exist in Russia and some of them have a strong market position, accounting for almost one-third of the aggregate volume produced by large farms. This study explores whether social capital might be the explanation for this relative success, i.e. that members support their co-operative because they trust their fellow members as well as the leadership. Interviews with co-operative members resulted in 1401 usable answers. The results from an ordered logit model indicate that social capital plays a partial role. Members who consider co-operatives to be an efficient business form value social ties to other members, even though the leadership does not enjoy much social capital.

GOVERNANCE OF PRODUCTION CO-OPERATIVES IN RUSSIAN AGRICULTURE

Many Soviet kolkhozy and sovkhozy were transformed into agricultural production co-operatives, because the farm workers would have had large transaction costs in any other type of organization. These co-operatives still hold a strong market position. This study explores the hypothesis that this market strength could be due to low governance costs, obtained through strong manager power. As managers want the co-operative to survive, they make limited investments in the co-operative and pay low wages. The members, however, do not consider this to be problematic. They appreciate the community within the village, their private plots of land and the co-operatives services. Hence the existence of the co-operatives is not threatened.

The Role of ICT Expenditure for Cash Crop Production and Income Generation in Southern Ethiopia

Previous studies indicate that cash crop producers in developing countries are, in comparison to other farmers, more inclined to spend a share of their income on information communication technologies (ICT). In some cases however, it is not known whether the larger cash crop producers are spending more on ICT because they are wealthier, or if the cash crop farms that make more use of ICT services have in the past been able to accumulate wealth faster. This paper attempts to understand this causality for the case of smallholder farmers in rural villages of southern Ethiopia. In the analysis, special emphasis is placed on the role of market participation and the role of investments into ICTs for household income generation. Results from Two Stage Least Square (2SLS) regressions indicated that income is the most significant driver of farmers’ spending behavior on ICT goods and services, while being a cash crop producer is the most important determinant of having a relatively high income. Thus, especially investment into mobile phones and cash crop production appear to be complementary.

Reconsidering Media Discourses on Food Crisis from a Quantitative Perspective

ABSTRACT In 2007–2008, when food prices started to increase dramatically, purchasing power parity of consumers, especially the urban poor, started to decrease automatically. High food prices were argued to cause poverty, hunger, and food riots among urban populations. Henceforward, “food crisis” became a new storyline in the current debate. In contrast, in the pre-2007 period, when rural farmers had been facing negative welfare effects of low food prices for many years, there were no crisis talks. This article analyzes different media coverage of urban consumers and rural producers under changes in relative incomes for the 2000–2013 period and propounds media bias on the food crisis debate by using content analysis and the OLS regression model.