Lucas D. Parsch

Simulation of forage harvest and conservation on dairy farms

Abstract A computer model was developed to simulate forage systems on dairy farms. The model simulated alfalfa growth, corn silage and corn grain yields, harvest, storage, feeding and ration formulation for a dairy herd. A 26-year series of historical weather data from East Lansing, Michigan, was used to compare management and technological alternatives on the basis of average net return and year-to-year variations. For example, a four-cut alfalfa system was found to be more profitable than a three-cut system 90% of the time. The comparison of a hay system with a silage system was very sensitive to forage intake assumptions; the break-even point shifted from 120 ha to 40 ha when silage intake was increased by 5%. The model can be used to assess the impact of new forage conservation methods under a wide range of climatic and management conditions.

Factors Affecting the Adoption of Value-added Production on Cow-Calf Farms

Factors that affect the decision to feed or sell calves at weaning are analyzed for Arkansas cow-calf operators. A discrete choice logit model is used to analyze the adoption of value-added cattle production. Farm size, human capital, perception of risk/returns and enterprise diversification are hypothesized to explain this decision. Regional factors and land quality are also accounted for. Operator perceptions towards risk, profitability and facilities were important. Production control and attention to marketing were also significant, but farm size and scale of cattle production had a minimal impact. Effects of human capital and off-farm labor opportunities need further investigation.

How cropland contract type and term decisions are made: evidence from an Arkansas tenant survey

This study examines land contract decision-making with the use of an eastern Arkansas data set. Estimated probit models used to test contract choice hypotheses support a credit constraint hypothesis, indicating that contract choice is based on: 1) the tenants financial position and operating expense levels, 2) the size of the operation; 3) alternative uses of agricultural land; and 4) the supply of contracted land. Results indicate limited support for the agency problem hypothesis and reject the risk aversion and farmers managerial ability hypotheses. Regression equations used to select lease term hypotheses indicate that cash rent levels are sensitive to land quality, supply of contract acres, irrigation, and crop produced. Tenant shares of the crop and variable costs are less sensitive to land quality than cash rents. Other variables that influence tenant shares of the crop and variable costs include tenant/landlord social capital, the supply of contracted acres, and crop selection.

THE 1996 FAIR ACT: MEASURING THE IMPACTS ON LAND LEASING

Using a 1997 survey of Arkansas farm operators, Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act impacts on changes in cropping mixes on leased land, operator attitudes concerning the sharing of FAIR Act benefits with landlords, and changes in leasing arrangements due to the FAIR Act are investigated. Operators indicated that the FAIR Act caused cropping-mixchanges on 24% of surveyed leases. Although some operators believe that landlords disproportionately benefit from the FAIR Act, about three-quarters feel that there was no change or had no opinion. Similarly, we find little evidence that leasing arrangements changed as a result of the FAIR Act.

Economics of simulated beef-forage rotational grazing under weather uncertainty

Abstract A biophysical model GRAZE is used to simulate pasture growth and animal weight gain for steers pastured on Bermudagrass. Economic performance is simulated for a continuously grazed pasture and compared to the performance of nine systems in which a rotational grazing schedule is strictly adhered to. Sensitivity of the performance of each strategy to weather risk is assessed for ten alternative weather scenarios, and each pasture management system is ranked for trade-offs between risk and returns using stochastic dominance ordering. Results indicate that expected net returns are highest with a continuous grazing system, but that risk considerations may influence some producers to select one of the rotational systems.

Validation of ALSIM1 (Level 2) under Michigan conditions

Abstract The performance of the alfalfa crop growth model ALSIM1 (Level 2) is tested under Michigan conditions. Simulated yield data are compared to (a) weekly topgrowth plot data collected over a 2-year period for 1-, 2- and 3-cutting systems and (b) harvest yield data for a four-cut system collected over a 5-year period. Results of parametric (regression) and non-parametric (Kolmogorov-Smirnov) testing indicate that the model is a reliable predictor of alfalfa harvested yields and of early-season topgrowth along the plant growth curve but that simulated regrowth for late season cuttings is less accurate.

Landlord Satisfaction with Arkansas Agricultural Land Agreements

Landlord satisfaction levels with agricultural land-leasing agreements are examined with a 1998 sample of Arkansas landowners. Ordered probit models are estimated identifying which factors significantly affect satisfaction levels. Results indicate that the type of lease is not a significant determinant of landlord satisfaction levels. Proportion of landlord’s income from leasing, tenant educational background, social capital variables, presence of irrigation equipment, and perceptions about the FAIR Act were found to significantly affect lease satisfaction in at least one of the three satisfaction models estimated. A comparison with an earlier study of Arkansas tenants indicates landlords have generally higher satisfaction levels.