Lucio Guido Tapia Carpio

Estimating the economic costs of electricity deficit using input–output analysis: the case of Brazil

The objective of this article is to present a methodology to estimate the marginal cost of electric energy deficit in the long-term using input–output (I–O) analysis. We obtain a deficit marginal cost (DMC) curve that is not limited to a small number of levels, such as the curve used currently in Brazil, which is limited to four levels. The marginal cost of deficit is an important exogenous parameter used in the model’s chain to calculate the operation’s marginal cost and short-term market pricing. The electric energy deficit is a temporary lack of continuity in meeting demand, which is usually predictable and involves prior notice to the consumer. The cause of this deficit may be a lack of investment and/or low water inflows that impact the production of hydroelectric power plants. In this study, the marginal cost of the deficit is obtained from restrictions on the provision of electricity for productive sectors and by calculating the corresponding impact on the gross domestic product. The proposed methodology can be used with data from the I–O matrix of any country to estimate its marginal cost of electric energy deficit.

Model for the flexible commercialization of thermoelectric plants in Brazil

ABSTRACT This article proposes a model that allows thermoelectric power plants to identify the risks and opportunities that exist during the marketing of electricity in “hybrid” markets, where electricity is offered in two types of environments: regulated and free. Because electricity generated in Brazil is predominantly hydraulic, it has adopted a scheme of centralized dispatch through a chain of optimization models, the natural gas thermal power plants enter in a complementary manner, which mitigates operational risk in dry periods. In this article, the value of operational flexibility will be estimated, and a model will be proposed to help thermoelectric power plants with energy-marketing decisions in both regulated and free markets. The results indicate that paying a premium for the availability of generation capacity can significantly stimulate the development of new projects in thermoelectric generation.

Unitization of oil and gas fields in Brazil

ABSTRACT Since the 1997 end of the monopoly on the exploration and production of oil and gas in Brazil, there has been an explosion of activity in this industry. This includes four instances of approved unitization involving Petrobras (owned by the Brazilian government) and another 12 unitization cases being evaluated by ANP, the Brazilian oil industry regulator. In most of these cases, a polarization between private oil/gas companies operating in Brazil and Petrobras was apparent. In addition, unitization is further complicated in this country because three distinct operating regimes are allowed: concession contracts, production sharing agreements, and onerous assignment. This paper evaluates these strategies according to game theory, makes policy recommendations, and also seeks to support the drafting of regulations, suggesting it would be better to aim at exploration/production to promote rapid convergence in unitization.

Gerenciamento da geração de energia elétrica por subsistemas: uma abordagem competitiva

Este artigo descreve uma abordagem competitiva para a geracao de energia eletrica no Brasil. O objetivo e propor um modelo em que cada subsistema gerencia a sua operacao de forma independente, criando condicoes para o desenvolvimento da regiao de acordo com as suas proprias caracteristicas. O processo decisorio e descrito a partir da Teoria dos Jogos, em que os agentes levam a cabo suas estrategias a partir de decisoes em relacao as quantidades produzidas, resultando no equilibrio Nash-Cournot. Nesta abordagem e destacada a importância de um correto dimensionamento das linhas de transmissao, pois esta assegura a competicao sem a necessidade de arranjos para o gerenciamento da congestao. Palavras-chave: Teoria dos Jogos; Reforma do Setor Eletrico Brasileiro; Gerenciamento de Sistemas de Energia.