Amaro Olimpio Pereira

Brazil beyond 2020: from deforestation to the energy challenge

The main assumptions and findings are presented on a comparative analysis of three GHG long-term emissions scenarios for Brazil. Since 1990, land-use change has been the most important source of GHG emissions in the country. The voluntary goals to limit Brazilian GHG emissions pledged a reduction in between 36.1% and 38.9% of GHG emissions projected to 2020, to be 6–10% lower than in 2005. Brazil is in a good position to meet the voluntary mitigation goals pledged to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) up to 2020: recent efforts to reduce deforestation have been successful and avoided deforestation will form the bulk of the emissions reduction commitment. In 2020, if governmental mitigation goals are met, then GHG emissions from the energy system would become the largest in the country. After 2020, if no additional mitigation actions are implemented, GHG emissions will increase again in the period 2020–2030, due to population and economic growth driving energy demand, supply and GHG emissions. However, Brazil is in a strong position to take a lead in low-carbon economic and social development due to its huge endowment of renewable energy resources allowing for additional mitigation actions to be adopted after 2020. Policy relevance The period beyond 2020 is now relevant in climate policy due to the Durban Platform agreeing a ‘protocol, legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal force’ that will have effect from 2020. After 2020, Brazil will be in a situation more similar to other industrialized countries, faced with a new challenge of economic development with low GHG energy-related emissions, requiring the adoption of mitigation policies and measures targeted at the energy system. Unlike the mitigation actions in the land-use change sector, where most of the funding will come from the national budgets due to sovereignty concerns, the huge financial resources needed to develop low-carbon transport and energy infrastructure could benefit from soft loans channelled to the country through nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs).

Climate change mitigation actions in Brazil

This article presents and discusses the main findings of a study focusing on climate change mitigation actions (MAs) in Brazil. Brazilian government presented to the 15th Conference of the Parties of the Climate Change Convention held in Copenhagen in 2009 (UNFCCC COP15) voluntary mitigation goals: a reduction in between 36.1 and 38.9% of the countrys green house gases (GHG) emissions projected to 2020. If Brazil meets its voluntary goals, its GHG emissions in 2020 will be 6–10% lower than in 2005. The main research question addressed in this study is what conditions should Brazil meet to achieve its pledge? It discusses how MAs are approached, conceptualized and planned in Brazil. It describes how the country identifies MAs and the contextual framework used to define them. It also maps the initiatives underway in the country, and analyses the issues faced for its successful implementation, as well as for future approaches. The main conclusion is that Brazil seems to be in a good position to meet its voluntary mitigation goals up to 2020, as avoiding deforestation will take up the bulk of the emission reduction. After 2020, Brazil will face a new challenge: combine economic development with low GHG energy-related emissions.

Impacts of carbon pricing on income inequality in Brazil

The introduction of a tax on greenhouse gases aims to increase awareness of the real costs of economic activities across all stakeholders. In the absence of such tax, these activities generate negative externalities, a market failure that imposes costs on others, including future generations. Developing countries have increasingly contributed to climate change, and emission mitigation policies are therefore also required in these economies. Among the priorities in their political agendas, however, are to reduce income concentration and alleviate poverty. Climate policies should therefore be implemented without interfering with such social goals. This study uses a Social Accounting Matrix for Brazil in 2005 to analyse the impact of implementing a charge per tonne of CO2e emitted on income distribution in Brazil. The results differ as much in relation to the level of the applied tax as to the means whereby the revenue thus raised is recycled in the economy. Two option paths are simulated: direct transfer to low-income families and exemption from labour taxes. As complementary results, impacts on GDP, on employment levels, and on GHG emissions are also analysed.

Information for a developmental approach to mitigation: linking sectoral and economy-wide models for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa

Improved tools are required to deliver good information for decision-making on the potential socio-economic benefits of a transition to a low-carbon society. This article reports on modelling approaches to answer policy-relevant questions carried out research teams in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa. The teams link detailed models of sectors with economy-wide models and report methodological findings. Combining bottom-up and top-down models holds the promise of addressing short and long-term time-frames technological change, economy-wide interactions, direct costs, emissions reductions, and broader socio-economic implications of mitigation. While making different choices of models, common challenges were identified around: communication between the two models; treatment of time; convergence criteria; trade-offs between model accuracy and requirements of stakeholder processes; and level of integration of sectors within the economy-wide model. The teams each examined a diverse range of mitigation actions. By assuming the same range of carbon prices (US

Performance assessment of Alternative Energy Resources in Brazilian power sector using Data Envelopment Analysis

10, US

Strategies to promote renewable energy in Brazil

20 and US

Energy in Brazil: Toward sustainable development?

50 per ton of CO2-eq) results can be compared, while understanding that variation may also be due to assumed differences in carbon pricing mechanisms, recycling of revenue and models chosen. The studies for Brazil and Chile found relatively higher emission reductions at this medium carbon price than those for South Africa and Colombia. Our analysis of the socio-economic implications suggests that emissions reductions with a medium carbon tax would be accompanied by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses ranging from 0.5% of GDP to 3%. Three studies further examined implications for employment and wages and found negative effects, which could be softened only to some extent by recycling of revenue.