Lucjan Gucma

Trans-Risk - An integrated method for risk management in transport

Trans-Risk - An Integrated Method for Risk Management in Transport Many attempts have been made at risk management integration in other spheres of life. A review of risk management in the modes of transport shows some substantial differences in the terminology and the detailed rules and applications of risk management. As a result, it is important to try and integrate risk management methods in transport. This paper presents the results of the work of an interdisciplinary team working on integrating the methods of risk management. The members represented the four modes of transport listed in the project called Integrated System of Transport Safety ZEUS. The paper presents the background conditions for the integration of risk management in transport and a concept of an integrated method for risk management called TRANS-RISK. Trans-risk - zintegrowana metoda zarządzania ryzykiem w transporcie Podjęto już wiele prób integracji metod zarządzania ryzykiem w innych dziedzinach życia. Przegląd metod zarządzania ryzykiem w poszczególnych gałęziach transportu wskazuje na dość duże rozbieżności terminologiczne i rozbieżności dotyczące szczegółowych zasad i zastosowań metod zarządzania ryzykiem. Istnieje zatem konieczność podjęcia próby integracji metod zarządzania ryzykiem w transporcie. Niniejszy praca jest wynikiem działań interdyscyplinarnego zespołu pracującego nad tym problemem. Są to przedstawiciele czterech gałęzi transportu w projekcie Zintegrowany System Bezpieczeństwa Transportu ZEUS. Praca zawiera założenia do integracji metod zarządzania ryzykiem w transporcie oraz koncepcję zintegrowanej metody zarządzania ryzykiem TRANS-RISK.

Monte Carlo Method of Ship's Underkeel Clearance Evaluation for Safety of Ferry Approaching to Ystad Port Determination

Monte Carlo Method of Ships Underkeel Clearance Evaluation for Safety of Ferry Approaching to Ystad Port Determination The paper is concerned with the analysis of simulation research results of newly design Piast ferry entering to modernized Ystad Port. The ship simulation model is described. After execution of real time simulations the Monte Carlo method of underkeel clearance evaluation is applied to asses the probability of ferry touching the bottom. The results could be used in risk assessment of ships entering to the ports. Metoda Monte Carlo do Określania Rezerwy Wody Pod Stępką DLA Zapewnienia Bezpieczeństwa Promów na Podejściu do Portu Ystad W artykule zaprezentowano analizę wyników badań symulacyjnych wejść nowoprojektowanego promu Piast do modernizowanego portu Ystad. Przedstawiono także model symulacyjny statku wykorzystany w badaniach. Po przeprowadzeniu symulacji w czasie rzeczywistym, metoda Monte Carlo określania zapasu wody pod stępką została wykorzystana do oszacowania prawdopodobieństwa kolizji z dnem akwenu. Uzyskane wyniki mogą być wykorzystane do oceny ryzyka statków podchodzących do portów.

Risk Analysis Of Collision Between Passenger Ferry And Chemical Tanker In The Western Zone Of The Baltic Sea

Abstract This paper presents assumptions and process of the forming of a risk assessment model for collision between a passenger ferry departing from or approaching port of Świnoujście and a chemical tanker carrying a dangerous cargo. In order to assess navigational safety on the basis of data obtained from AIS system, were prepared probabilistic domains of ships, which made it possible to estimate number of navigational incidents as well as their spatial distribution, that consequently allowed to determine potentially dangerous areas. The next phase was formulation of a simulative model intended for the calculating of probability of collision between the ferry and chemical tanker as well as the determining of characteristic scenarios for such collision. This paper presents also an analysis of consequences of the collision with taking into consideration a damage of cargo tanks.

Optimal Planning of Pollution Emergency Response with Application of Navigational Risk Management

Abstract According to the HELCOM AIS, there are about 2,000 ships in the Baltic marine area at any given moment. The main environmental effects of shipping and other activities at sea include air pollution, illegal deliberate and accidental discharges of oil, hazardous substances and other wastes, and the unintentional introduction of invasive alien organisms via ships’ ballast water or hulls. Original oil pollution model and optimal allocation of response resources was proposed in the paper.

Risk Based Decision Model for Maximal Ship Entry to the Ports

The paper presents concept of probabilistic and risk based decision support model for large ships admittance to ports. Two main accident types are included into the model. The accidents due to ships exceeding horizontal boundaries of manoeuvring area such as grounding in channel and the accidents due to ship hitting the bottom because of exceeding the available water depth.

Analysis of the Existing Parameters of the Ports Entrances in the World in Terms of Their Design

This article aims to analyse the statistical parameters of waterways forming the entrance to the port and the construction of a model for determining the optimum parameters of the entrance to the port. It has been analyzed parameters of the entrances to the 100 selected global ports, based on the analysis it was examined the interdependence between certain parameters and the impact they have on the maximum size of the ship which can enter to the port. This analysis allowed to develop a model, which can possible to be applied to the entrance of initial port design. http://www.transnav.eu the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation Volume 11

System for Determining Dynamic Under Keel Clearance of Vessels Entering the Port of Swinoujscie (DRWPS)

The article presents a system for determining dynamic under keel clearance. In order to build a DRWPS system, a mixed model was created based on the analysis of math models. The system includes advisory software for defining the conditions for the entering of large LNG vessels in the context of under keel clearance and software was built to support the decision‐making of operators who are responsible for introducing these vessels to the Port of Swinoujscie. http://www.transnav.eu the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation Volume 11

Applying Simulation Studies to Define Further Development of the Przemyslowy Canal in Szczecin

The increasing sizes of ships and lack of functionality of the existing solutions determine the interest in rebuilding the already existing solutions. Simulation models allow to analyse the possible modernisation variants taking into account the variability of elementary parameters. The article presents analysis results for the Przemyslowy Canal in Szczecin with respect to navigation safety and regulating traffic regulations in the Przemyslowy Canal taking into consideration the interests of all subjects involved. The paper applies real‐time simulation methods based on manoeuvring simulators. After a thorough analysis that took into account the safety of navigation, further possibilities of development have been determined. Study results are aimed at designing new solutions in case of modernization of the Przemyslowy Canal in Szczecin. http://www.transnav.eu the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation Volume 11 Number 3 September 2017 DOI: 10.12716/1001.11.03.22

Method for Reserves Determination of Static and Dynamic List of Bulk Carriers, Applied to the Dynamic Under Keel Clearance System in the Port of Swinoujscie

Abstract The paper presents the methodology for determining the components which are related to heel of bulk carrier with one component excluded — the heel of vessel due to waves. The described method was applied to the system, which is dedicated to use in determination of UKC of vessels at the approach to the Port of Swinoujscie. The method includes determination of heel caused by: draught reading errors, wind, current, tugboats and heel related to vessel maneuvers. To determine heel related to vessel maneuver 2-stage method was carried out. The first stage simulation was used to identify the parameters of ship movement. At the second stage, the maximum heel of Bulk Carrier were calculated by using analytical methods. Presented method was implemented to the item rating under keel clearance at the approach to the Port of Swinoujscie

Stochastic Model of Ships Traffic Capacity and Congestion — Validation by Real Ships Traffic Data on Świnoujście — Szczecin Waterway

Abstract Paper presents validation of previously created stochastic ships traffic stream model by the real data of ships delays on Świnoujście — Szczecin waterway. The model is mostly based on Monte Carlo methodology. The model is microscopic which means that each ship’s model is treated as separate object possessing given attributes. As the main parameter of presented validation total waiting (delay) time of ships have been applied. The time of ships delays was possessed from Szczecin VTS centre and compared with the model output.