Lucjan T. Orlowski

Stages of the 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis: Is There a Wandering Asset Price Bubble?

This study identifies five distinctive stages of the current global financial crisis: the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market; spillovers into broader credit market; the liquidity crisis epitomized by the fallout of Northern Rock, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers with counterparty risk effects on other financial institutions; the commodity price bubble, and the ultimate demise of investment banking in the U.S. The study argues that the severity of the crisis is influenced strongly by changeable allocations of global savings coupled with excessive credit creation, which lead to over-pricing of varied types of assets. The study calls such process a “wandering asset-price bubble”. Unstable allocations elevate market, credit and liquidity risks. Monetary policy responses aimed at stabilizing financial markets are proposed.

Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries

This study examines the impact of various monetary policy regimes on the ability to lower inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU accession countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. It proposes a monetary policy framework of flexible targeting of relative inflation risk premium that is believed to be credible and useful for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is developed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by employing the threshold ARCH (TARCH) model.

Central European Banks and Stock Exchanges: Capacity-building and Institutional Development

This paper analyses capacity building and institutional development in the banking and capital market sectors of formerly planned economies in Central and Eastern Europe. While the existing literature mostly addresses the specific situation of banks and capital markets in a particular country or for a few countries of the region only, this paper identifies common institutional and structural problems of all 10 Central European applicant countries for EU membership. Given the strong tendencies towards imprudent banking, the small size of the financial markets, asymmetric information, inadequate capitalization and insufficient supervision, privatization of the large former state owned banks may require strong equity involvement of foreign banks and international institutions like the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), which reduce the risk for foreign investors by providing guarantees and securing more reliable banking policies of the respective governments.

Exchange Rate Risk and Convergence to the Euro

This paper proposes a new monetary policy framework for effectively navigating the path to adopting the euro. The proposed policy is based on relative inflation forecast targeting and incorporates an ancillary target of declining exchange rate risk, which is suggested as a key criterion for evaluating the currency stability. A model linking exchange rate volatility to differentials over the euro zone in both inflation (target variable) and interest rate (instrument variable) is proposed. The model is empirically tested for the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary, the selected new Member States of the EU that use direct inflation targeting to guide their monetary policies. The empirical methodology is based on the TARCH(p,q,r)-M model.

Direct Inflation Targeting in Central Europe

This paper discusses perceived benefits and disadvantages of direct inflation targeting for economies in transition in Central Europe. It examines the experience of net inflation targeting in the Czech Republic and of CPI forecast targeting regimes in Poland, providing specific suggestions for enhancing transparency of monetary policy. Inflation targeting is compared with exchange-rate pegging and is viewed as a superior solution for facilitating the monetary convergence of central European EU candidates to the inflation level prevailing in the eurozone. Other benefits of inflation targeting for central banks in transition economies are described as well. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E31, E52, P33. 5 figures, 2 tables, 22 references.

Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro

We demonstrate that bond yield compression is under way in the countries converging to the euro and that German yields are significant drivers of local currency yields. Based on the evidence from Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, we conclude that these new Member States of the European Union are ready to adopt the euro without risking a disruptive shock to their financial stability. This message transpires from investigating the daily volatility dynamics of local bond yields as a function of German yields, conditional on changes in local term spreads, exchange rates and adjustments to central bank reference rates. Similar results of high sensitivity of local currency bond yields to changes in German yields are obtained from testing monthly series of macroeconomic fundamentals. These findings provide evidence of the potential usefulness of term spreads as indicators of monetary convergence.

Monetary Policy Targeting in Central Europe's Transition Economics: The Case for Direct Inflation Targeting

Monetary policies of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic have undergone a significant transformation in the 1990s. The initial currency peg and the exchange-rate-based monetary policy have been gradually replaced by more flexible exchange rates and money-based policies. Preparations for accession to the European Union and, later, to the European Monetary Union, call for further policy advancements including effective measures for lowering inflation, for reducing volatility of interest rates and market exchange rates, and for stabilizing domestic financial markets. Monetary authorities need to gain credibility for their policies, which should become more transparent, forward-looking and predictable. This paper argues that direct inflation targeting will be a desirable monetary policy approach for accomplishing these objectives. At the initial stage of monetary policy adjustments, a stricter form of inflation targeting is proposed in order to strengthen central banks policy discipline and commitment to disinflation. When price indexes reach a more sustainable level, flexible inflation targeting is advised. After the candidates join the EU and begin preparations for accession to the EMU, direct inflation targeting will have to be gradually phased-out and replaced by the euro-peg.

A dynamic approach to inflation targeting in transition economies

This study views inflation targeting as a viable monetary regime for more advanced transition economies. A dynamic approach to the trajectory of disinflation and to the flexibility of direct inflation targeting is presented in the context of achieving monetary convergence to the EU/AMU. The candidate countries are advised to begin from strict inflation targeting and to follow with a more flexible inflation targeting regime before they establish a necessary ‘foundational credibility’ and monetary stability. These steps, ultimately followed by a euro-peg, are necessary in preparing for accession to the eurozone. The early experiences of the Czech Republic and Poland with inflation targeting are examined.

Money Rules for the Eurozone Candidate Countries

This study proposes the adoption of money growth rules as indicator variables of monetary policies by the countries converging to a common currency system, in particular, by the eurozone candidate countries. The analytical framework assumes an inflation target as the ultimate policy goal. The converging countries act in essence as “takers” of the inflation target, which, in this case, is the eurozone’s inflation forecast. The study advances a forwardlooking money growth model that might be applied to aid monetary convergence to the eurozone. However, feasibility of adopting money growth rules depends on stable relationships between money and target variables, which are low inflation and stable exchange rate. Long-run interactions between these variables are examined for Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic by employing a Johansen cointegration test, along with short-run effects assessed with a vector error correction procedure.

Monetary Policy Transparency in Inflation Targeting Countries: The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

This paper quantifies transparency of monetary policy in the three EU New Member States that have adopted direct inflation targeting strategy. Two measures of transparency are applied. The institutional measure reflects the extent to which a central bank discloses information that is related to the policymaking process. The behavioural measure reflects the clarity among the financial market participants about the true course of monetary policy. The paper shows an ambiguous association between the two measures of transparency, which may be attributed to the active exchange rate management policy that undermines the actual transparency proxied by the behavioural measure.