Artur Radziwill

Tax Wedge and Skills: Case of Poland in International Perspective

The project intended to explain the causes of high structural unemployment in Poland. It is generally believed that the high level of unemployment in Poland is determined to a decisive degree by factors such as a restrictive labor code, high degree of unionization and/or the unemployment benefits system. The research provides macroeconomic and microeconomic evidence that the employment consequences of a tax wedge can be more severe for the low-skilled. Consequently, it argues that a high tax wedge can be potentially more harmful in countries abundant in this kind of labour. These results should send a strong message to policymakers, especially those in Central and Eastern Europe. The project was financed by a research grant provided by the Ministry of Education and Science, Poland and conducted by a team of CASE researchers: Marek Gora (coordinator), Mateusz Walewski, Artur Radziwill and Agnieszka Sowa. It was completed in the first quarter of 2006.

Monetary Policy Transparency in Inflation Targeting Countries: The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

This paper quantifies transparency of monetary policy in the three EU New Member States that have adopted direct inflation targeting strategy. Two measures of transparency are applied. The institutional measure reflects the extent to which a central bank discloses information that is related to the policymaking process. The behavioural measure reflects the clarity among the financial market participants about the true course of monetary policy. The paper shows an ambiguous association between the two measures of transparency, which may be attributed to the active exchange rate management policy that undermines the actual transparency proxied by the behavioural measure.

Future EMU Membership and Wage Flexibility in Selected EU Candidate Countries

This paper attempts to evaluate wage rigidity related to risks of increased size and volatility of unemployment after the candidate countries enter the EMU. Such evaluation is done through the study of past labour market adjustment mechanisms and, in particular, the role played by the exchange rate movements and independent monetary policy. The paper examines some institutional and structural characteristics of candidate countries labour markets that could influence the wage elasticity. The analysis indicates that generally nominal wages are not flexible in candidate countries. Inflationary surprises and nominal exchange rate movements have an effect on the adjustment, especially during the Russian crisis. On the other hand fast productivity growth creates the environment in which unit labour can adjust to unfavourable labour market outcomes through moderation of real wage dynamics despite nominal stickiness. The paper indicates possible fields of further in-depth research in this area.

EU's Eastern Neighbours: Institutional Harmonisation and Potential Growth Bonus

This paper provides the quantitative estimate of the potential growth bonus for CIS countries, and in particular EUs Easter Neighbours, that can be a result of deeper institutional harmonisation with the EU. Econometric investigation involving instrumental variable, simultaneous equation and dynamic panel techniques documents the strong positive link between growth performance and reforms, as well as between reforms and European integration. The paper derives the range of possible values of growth bonus from the deepened neighbourhood cooperation between 1 and 3.8 with the median at 1.8 percentage points. The least growth bonus is expected through basic liberalization reforms, while countries with a considerable institutional gap are likely to gain the most.

Barriers to growth in Moldova

This book brings together ten original studies on the transition and growth experience and the foundations for long-term growth of the newly independent states created by the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

The Failure of the IMF in Preventing Currency Crises in CIS Countries

The IMF has supported the transition process in a number of FSU countries. This support has involved concessionary financing, policy advice and technical assistance. Notwithstanding temporary conflicts, cooperation between the Fund and FSU countries throughout the period has been described by the Fund as generally successful. It has been argued that it has contributed to macroeconomic and financial stabilization.1 However, the financial crisis of 1998 wiped out this stabilization and proved that previous policies had not been fully sustainable. This chapter attempts to answer the crucial question of why countries collaborating closely with the IMF and implementing policies supported by the Fund had to undergo deep currency crises.2 The question becomes even more intriguing if one takes into consideration the fact that this was a first-generation crisis (see chapters 5, 6, 11, 12 and 13 of this volume) — that is, one caused by bad policies that led to macroeconomic imbalances. While the core of the problems was domestic, a deterioration in external conditions was the trigger that started the inevitable collapse. True, however, it is also now well understood that vested interests, insufficient structural reforms and lack of political will were also crucial factors preventing necessary policy adjustments. But did the Fund influence the pace of structural reforms and fiscal tightening enough?

Is Moldova Ready to Grow? Assessment of Post-Crisis Policies (1999-2000)

The efforts to stabilize the Moldovan economy after the crisis of 1998 have been largely successful. The country avoided international default as current account position radically improved, cooperation with international financial institutions was re-established and a significant primary fiscal surplus was achieved. As a result, the exchange rate was stabilised and inflation substantially reduced. Moreover, several important structural reforms were implemented and privatisation of key-industries pursued with much more determination than previously. However, only economic growth would bring real solutions to the persistent problems of external and internal imbalances of the Moldovan economy and would allow the country to face its heavy debt burden in the future. Unfortunately, prospects for sustainable growth remain weak, as the most important issues that constrain private entrepreneurship and investments have not been effectively tackled. These issues include: lack of territorial integrity, ineffective legal system, widespread corruption and rent seeking. It is unlikely that these problems can be solved until the Moldovan parliament assumes full ownership of reform process.

The Social Dimension in Selected Candidate Countries in the Balkans - Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Turkey: Synthesis Report

The European Commission awarded a contract in November 2005 to a consortium composed of the TARKI Social Research Institute (Hungary), CASE, Center for Social and Economic Research (Poland) and CEPS to analyse the socio-economic developments and the process of structural reforms in what were then four candidate countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey. The objective was to identify the major challenges in the current demographic, social and economic context that could be considered relevant in determining the capacity of these countries to function in the European Union. This study presents a synthesis of the findings for all four countries, and consists of an analytical section and a statistical annex. The four country reports are published separately in this same series.

Poland's Accession to the EMU

This paper is focused on the development of a proper macroeconomic strategy in the process of Polands accession to the European Monetary Union. It is argued that due to legal and political considerations Poland may not opt out from EMU participation. The country will however command net gains from participation in the eurozone, mainly due to reduced macroeconomic and microeconomic uncertainty. In order to achieve even higher gains it is necessary to reduce price and wage rigidities, eliminate constraints on free movement of labor, further promote trade links with EU and its diversification. Loss of monetary and exchange rate instruments will require responsive but generally conservative fiscal policy. Particularly, as Poland might experience major economic upturn at the outset in the EU membership, the country should achieve positive budget balance by this time. It will allow for fiscal expansion in case of future negative asymmetric shock or recessions. Fiscal policy should be therefore assigned to improve saving-investment balance and consequently current account, so that direct inflation targeting is well placed to achieve fulfillment of Maastricht price stability criterion. Real exchange rate is not an independent instrument to target current account, as real appreciation of domestic currency is unavoidable due to rapid productivity gains in Poland. Finally, the accession to EMU should follow promptly the accession to EU. Unilateral introduction of Euro is too risky for banking and real sectors. Slower process of joining EMU would hamper credibility of macroeconomic adjustment commitment.