Lucy Cradden

Preliminary Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the UK Onshore Wind Energy Resource

Abstract Wind power is currently the fastest growing renewable technology and will play a significant role in constraining the extent of climate change. However, the very fact that its ‘fuel source’ is driven by the climate may leave it exposed as climate changes over the coming decades. In this preliminary assessment, the potential for changes in climate to affect the significant onshore wind resource in the United Kingdom (UK) is explored using the regional climate change scenarios published by the UK Climate Impacts Programme in 2002. The scenarios indicate seasonal changes in potential wind production with winter production generally increasing while summer decreases.

Will climate change impact on wind power development in the UK

Partly in response to concerns about anthropogenic climate change, renewable energy production is growing rapidly in the United Kingdom (UK). The wind power industry takes advantage of the country having some of the highest mean wind speeds in Europe. Future climate change, however, has the potential to alter the characteristics of the UK wind climate. Small changes in mean wind speed could produce much greater changes in wind energy output as the power generated is related to the cube of wind speed. This paper aims to use a simple method to provide insight into projected future UK wind climate and how this might differ from current patterns. A discussion of the scale of the projected impacts on the wind energy industry follows.

Capacity Value of Offshore Wind in Great Britain

The extent to which large volumes of offshore wind can contribute to a secure and reliable electricity supply is the subject of much debate. Central to providing credible answers is a detailed understanding of the wind resource and its variability in time and space. Here, a mesoscale atmospheric model was employed to create a 10 year hindcast of British onshore and offshore wind speeds and simulate the output of a British offshore wind fleet. This enabled estimation of the capacity value of British wind fleets both on- and offshore during periods of high winter demand. It provides a credible estimate of the distinct long-term contribution of production from a future British offshore wind fleet and indicates substantial improvement over onshore wind. Furthermore, a first level analysis demonstrated that the availability of offshore wind farms had a modest negative impact on the capacity value of wind but that conventional generation and demand levels played a more significant role.

High Resolution Wind Power Models - an Irish Case Study

Abstract This paper focuses on high resolution wind power statistical models fitted to meteorological data for the island of Ireland. A discrete Burr model efficiently represents the number of consecutive hours of wind power availability. The models developed in this study may be most useful at time resolutions less than 6 hours to capture zero power and short bursts of wind power potential. They could serve as a useful complement to other wind power modelling approaches such as MERRA reanalysis models.

High Resolution Wind Power and Wind Drought Models

We present high resolution wind power statistical models fitted to meteorological data for the island of Ireland. We find that a discrete Burr model efficiently represents the number of consecutive hours of wind power availability. Burr models are also useful to model the complement of the wind power availability events, wind droughts, when wind speed is insufficient to produce wind power. The models developed in this study may be most useful at time resolutions less than 6 hours to capture zero power and short bursts of wind power potential. They could serve as a useful complement to other wind power modelling approaches such as MERRA reanalysis models. Wind power duration models, and their wind drought complements, also provide insights for investors on potential wind power availability at geographic locations.

The Offshore Environment

An accurate assessment of the offshore environment, including the meteorological, oceanographic and other relevant environmental conditions, is fundamental to the design of FOWTs.