Luigi Bisanti

Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities

BACKGROUND Higher incidence rates of childhood cancer and particularly leukemia have been observed in regions with higher radon levels, but case-control studies have given inconsistent results. We tested the hypothesis that domestic radon exposure increases the risk for childhood cancer. METHODS We identified 2400 incident cases of leukemia, central nervous system tumor, and malignant lymphoma diagnosed in children between 1968 and 1994 in the Danish Cancer Registry. Control children (n = 6697) were selected from the Danish Central Population Registry. Radon levels in residences of children and the cumulated exposure of each child were calculated as the product of exposure level and time, for each address occupied during childhood. RESULTS Cumulative radon exposure was associated with risk for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), with rate ratios of 1.21 (95% confidence interval = 0.98-1.49) for levels of 0.26 to 0.89 x 10(3) Bq/m3-years and 1.63 (1.05-2.53) for exposure to >0.89 x 10(3) Bq/m3-years, when compared with <0.26 x 10(3) Bq/m3-years. A linear dose-response analysis showed a 56% increase in the rate of ALL per 10(3) Bq/m3-years increase in exposure. The association with ALL persisted in sensitivity analyses and after adjustment for potential confounders. No association was found with the other types of childhood cancer. CONCLUSIONS This study suggests that domestic radon exposure increases the risk for ALL during childhood but not for other childhood cancers.Background: Epidemiologic studies show that high temperatures are related to mortality, but little is known about the exposure-response function and the lagged effect of heat. We report the associations between daily maximum apparent temperature and daily deaths during the warm season in 15 European cities. Methods: The city-specific analyses were based on generalized estimating equations and the city-specific results were combined in a Bayesian random effects meta-analysis. We specified distributed lag models in studying the delayed effect of exposure. Time-varying coefficient models were used to check the assumption of a constant heat effect over the warm season. Results: The city-specific exposure-response functions have a V shape, with a change-point that varied among cities. The meta-analytic estimate of the threshold was 29.4°C for Mediterranean cities and 23.3°C for north-continental cities. The estimated overall change in all natural mortality associated with a 1°C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold was 3.12% (95% credibility interval = 0.60% to 5.72%) in the Mediterranean region and 1.84% (0.06% to 3.64%) in the north-continental region. Stronger associations were found between heat and mortality from respiratory diseases, and with mortality in the elderly. Conclusions: There is an important mortality effect of heat across Europe. The effect is evident from June through August; it is limited to the first week following temperature excess, with evidence of mortality displacement. There is some suggestion of a higher effect of early season exposures. Acclimatization and individual susceptibility need further investigation as possible explanations for the observed heterogeneity among cities.

Once-Only Sigmoidoscopy in Colorectal Cancer Screening: Follow-up Findings of the Italian Randomized Controlled Trial—SCORE

BACKGROUND A single flexible sigmoidoscopy at around the age of 60 years has been proposed as an effective strategy for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. METHODS We conducted a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effect of flexible sigmoidoscopy screening on CRC incidence and mortality. A questionnaire to assess the eligibility and interest in screening was mailed to 236,568 men and women, aged 55-64 years, who were randomly selected from six trial centers in Italy. Of the 56,532 respondents, interested and eligible subjects were randomly assigned to the intervention group (invitation for flexible sigmoidoscopy; n = 17,148) or the control group (no further contact; n = 17,144), between June 14, 1995, and May 10, 1999. Flexible sigmoidoscopy was performed on 9911 subjects. Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed to compare the CRC incidence and mortality rates in the intervention and control groups. Per-protocol analysis was adjusted for noncompliance. RESULTS A total of 34,272 subjects (17,136 in each group) were included in the follow-up analysis. The median follow-up period was 10.5 years for incidence and 11.4 years for mortality; 251 subjects were diagnosed with CRC in the intervention group and 306 in the control group. Overall incidence rates in the intervention and control groups were 144.11 and 176.43, respectively, per 100,000 person-years. CRC-related death was noted in 65 subjects in the intervention group and 83 subjects in the control group. Mortality rates in the intervention and control groups were 34.66 and 44.45, respectively, per 100,000 person-years. In the intention-to-treat analysis, the rate of CRC incidence was statistically significantly reduced in the intervention group by 18% (rate ratio [RR] = 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.69 to 0.96), and the mortality rate was non-statistically significantly reduced by 22% (RR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.56 to 1.08) compared with the control group. In the per-protocol analysis, both CRC incidence and mortality rates were statistically significantly reduced among the screened subjects; CRC incidence was reduced by 31% (RR = 0.69; 95% CI = 0.56 to 0.86) and mortality was reduced by 38% (RR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.40 to 0.96) compared with the control group. CONCLUSION A single flexible sigmoidoscopy screening between ages 55 and 64 years was associated with a substantial reduction of CRC incidence and mortality.

Effects of Cold Weather on Mortality: Results From 15 European Cities Within the PHEWE Project

Weather-related health effects have attracted renewed interest because of the observed and predicted climate change. The authors studied the short-term effects of cold weather on mortality in 15 European cities. The effects of minimum apparent temperature on cause- and age-specific daily mortality were assessed for the cold season (October-March) by using data from 1990-2000. For city-specific analysis, the authors used Poisson regression and distributed lag models, controlling for potential confounders. Meta-regression models summarized the results and explored heterogeneity. A 1 degrees C decrease in temperature was associated with a 1.35% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.53) increase in the daily number of total natural deaths and a 1.72% (95% CI: 1.44, 2.01), 3.30% (95% CI: 2.61, 3.99), and 1.25% (95% CI: 0.77, 1.73) increase in cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebrovascular deaths, respectively. The increase was greater for the older age groups. The cold effect was found to be greater in warmer (southern) cities and persisted up to 23 days, with no evidence of mortality displacement. Cold-related mortality is an important public health problem across Europe. It should not be underestimated by public health authorities because of the recent focus on heat-wave episodes.

The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project

BackgroundThe present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity.MethodsHeat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated.ResultsThe effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions.ConclusionsClimate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

High temperature and hospitalizations for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in 12 European cities.

RATIONALE Episode analyses of heat waves have documented a comparatively higher impact on mortality than on morbidity (hospital admissions) in European cities. The evidence from daily time series studies is scarce and inconsistent. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the impact of high environmental temperatures on hospital admissions during April to September in 12 European cities participating in the Assessment and Prevention of Acute Health Effects of Weather Conditions in Europe (PHEWE) project. METHODS For each city, time series analysis was used to model the relationship between maximum apparent temperature (lag 0-3 days) and daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory causes by age (all ages, 65-74 age group, and 75+ age group), and the city-specific estimates were pooled for two geographical groupings of cities. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS For respiratory admissions, there was a positive association that was heterogeneous between cities. For a 1 degrees C increase in maximum apparent temperature above a threshold, respiratory admissions increased by +4.5% (95% confidence interval, 1.9-7.3) and +3.1% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-5.5) in the 75+ age group in Mediterranean and North-Continental cities, respectively. In contrast, the association between temperature and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular admissions tended to be negative and did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS High temperatures have a specific impact on respiratory admissions, particularly in the elderly population, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Why high temperature increases cardiovascular mortality but not cardiovascular admissions is also unclear. The impact of extreme heat events on respiratory admissions is expected to increase in European cities as a result of global warming and progressive population aging.

Vulnerability to Heat-Related Mortality: A Multicity, Population-Based, Case-Crossover Analysis

Background: Although studies have documented increased mortality during heat waves, little information is available on the subgroups most susceptible to these effects. We evaluated the effects of summertime high temperature on daily mortality among population subgroups defined by demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, and episodes of hospitalization for various conditions during the preceding 2 years. Methods: We studied a total of 205,019 residents of 4 Italian cities (Bologna, Milan, Rome, and Turin) age 35 or older who died during 1997–2003. The case-crossover design was applied to evaluate the association between mean apparent temperature (same and previous day) and all-cause mortality. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of dying at 30°C (apparent temperature) relative to 20°C were estimated accounting for time, population changes, and air pollution. Results: We found an overall OR of 1.34 (CI = 1.27–1.42) at 30°C relative to 20°C. The odds ratio increased with age and was higher among women (OR = 1.45; 1.37–1.52) and among widows and widowers (1.50; 1.33–1.69). Low area-based income modestly increased the effect. Among the preexisting medical conditions investigated, effect modification was detected for previous psychiatric disorders (1.69; 1.39–2.07), depression (1.72; 1.24–2.39), heart conduction disorders (1.77; 1.38–2.27), and circulatory disorders of the brain (1.47; 1.34–1.62). Temperature-related mortality was higher among people residing in nursing homes, and a large effect was also detected for hospitalized subjects. Conclusions: Subsets of the population that are particularly vulnerable to high summer temperatures include the elderly, women, widows and widowers, those with selected medical conditions, and those staying in nursing homes and healthcare facilities.

Impact of high temperatures on mortality: is there an added heat wave effect?

Background: Mortality during sustained periods of hot weather is generally regarded as being in excess of what would be predicted from smooth temperature-mortality gradients estimated using standard time-series regression models. However, the evidence for an effect of continuous days of exceptional heat (“heat wave effect”) is indirect. In addition, because some interventions may be triggered only during forecasted heat waves, it would be helpful to know what fraction of all heat-related deaths falls during these specific periods and what fraction occurs throughout the remainder of the summer. Methods: Extended time-series data sets of daily mortality counts in 3 major European cities (London, 28 years of data; Budapest, 31 years; Milan, 18 years) were examined in relation to hot weather using a generalized estimating equations approach. We modeled temperature and specific heat wave terms using a variety of specifications. Results: With a linear effect of same-day temperature above an identified threshold, an additional “heat wave” effect of 5.5% was observed in London (95% confidence interval = 2.2 to 8.9), 9.3% in Budapest (5.8 to 13.0), and 15.2% in Milan (5.7 to 22.5). Heat wave effects were reduced slightly when we relaxed the linear assumption and these effects were reduced substantially when temperature was modeled as an average value of lags 0 to 2 days. In London, fewer than half of all heat-related deaths could be attributed to identified heat wave periods. In Milan and Budapest, the fraction was less than one fifth. Conclusions: Heat wave effects were apparent in simple time-series models but were reduced in multilag nonlinear models and small when compared with the overall summertime mortality burden of heat. Reduction of the overall heat burden requires preventive measures in addition to those that target warnings and responses uniquely to heat waves.

Road traffic and adverse respiratory effects in children. SIDRIA Collaborative Group.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relation between traffic indicators in the area of residence and the occurrence of chronic respiratory disorders in children. METHODS: A population based survey was conducted in 10 areas of northern and central Italy (autumn 1994 to winter 1995) in two age groups (6-7 and 13-14 years). Information on several respiratory disorders and on traffic near residences was collected with a questionnaire given to children and to their parents. The sample analysed included 39,275 subjects (response rate 94.4%). Outcomes were: (a) early (first 2 years of life) respiratory diseases, and (b) current respiratory disorders (asthma, wheeze, cough, or phlegm in the past year). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), adjusted for several potential confounders, were estimated from logistic regression models. Main results were stratified by level of urbanisation (metropolitan areas, other centres). RESULTS: In the metropolitan areas, high frequency of lorry traffic in the street of residence was associated with significantly increased risks for many adverse respiratory outcomes. Among early respiratory diseases, the strongest associations were found for recurrent bronchitis (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.30), bronchiolitis (1.74, 1.09 to 2.77) and pneumonia (1.84, 1.27 to 2.65), although no association was detected for episodes of wheezing bronchitis. All the current respiratory disorders were positively and consistently associated with frequency of lorry traffic, particularly the most severe bronchitic and wheezing symptoms: persistent phelgm for > 2 months (1.68; 1.14 to 2.48), and severe wheeze limiting speech (1.86; 1.26 to 2.73). No or weaker associations with heavy vehicular traffic were detected in urban and rural areas and no increased risks were found in the whole sample with the reported traffic density in the zone of residence. After extensive evaluations, the potential of reporting bias seems unlikely. CONCLUSION: Exposure to exhausts from heavy vehicular traffic may have several adverse effects on respiratory health of children living in metropolitan areas, increasing the occurrence of lower respiratory tract infections early in life and of wheezing and bronchitic symptoms at school age.

Estimating the Exposure–Response Relationships between Particulate Matter and Mortality within the APHEA Multicity Project

Several studies have reported significant health effects of air pollution even at low levels of air pollutants, but in most of theses studies linear nonthreshold relations were assumed. We investigated the exposure–response association between ambient particles and mortality in the 22 European cities participating in the APHEA (Air Pollution and Health—A European Approach) project, which is the largest available European database. We estimated the exposure–response curves using regression spline models with two knots and then combined the individual city estimates of the spline to get an overall exposure–response relationship. To further explore the heterogeneity in the observed city-specific exposure–response associations, we investigated several city descriptive variables as potential effect modifiers that could alter the shape of the curve. We conclude that the association between ambient particles and mortality in the cities included in the present analysis, and in the range of the pollutant common in all analyzed cities, could be adequately estimated using the linear model. Our results confirm those previously reported in Europe and the United States. The heterogeneity found in the different city-specific relations reflects real effect modification, which can be explained partly by factors characterizing the air pollution mix, climate, and the health of the population.

Consumption of fresh fruit rich in vitamin C and wheezing symptoms in children

BACKGROUND A beneficial effect of fresh fruit consumption on lung function has been observed in several studies. The epidemiological evidence of the effect on respiratory symptoms and asthma is limited. The consumption of fruit rich in vitamin C was examined in relation to wheezing and other respiratory symptoms in cross sectional and follow up studies of Italian children. METHODS Standardised respiratory questionnaires were filled in by parents of 18 737 children aged 6–7 years living in eight areas of Northern and Central Italy. The winter intake of citrus fruit and kiwi fruit by the children was categorised as less than once per week, 1–2 per week, 3–4 per week, and 5–7 per week. A subset of 4104 children from two areas was reinvestigated after one year using a second parental questionnaire to record the occurrence of wheezing symptoms over the intervening period. RESULTS In the cross sectional analysis, after controlling for several confounders (sex, study area, paternal education, household density, maternal smoking, paternal smoking, dampness or mould in the childs bedroom, parental asthma), intake of citrus fruit or kiwi fruit was a highly significant protective factor for wheeze in the last 12 months (odds ratio (OR) = 0.66, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.55 to 0.78, for those eating fruit 5–7 times per week compared with less than once per week), shortness of breath with wheeze (OR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.84), severe wheeze (OR = 0.59, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.85), nocturnal cough (OR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.83), chronic cough (OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.88), and non-coryzal rhinitis (OR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.83). In the follow up study fruit intake recorded at baseline was a strong and independent predictor of all symptoms investigated except non-coryzal rhinitis. In most cases the protective effect was evident even among children whose intake of fruit was only 1–2 times per week and no clear dose-response relationship was found. The effect was stronger (although not significantly so (p = 0.13)) in subjects with a history of asthma; those eating fresh fruit at least once a week experienced a lower one year occurrence of wheeze (29.3%) than those eating fruit less than once per week (47.1%) (OR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.81). CONCLUSIONS Although the effect of other dietary components cannot be excluded, it is concluded that the consumption of fruit rich in vitamin C, even at a low level of intake, may reduce wheezing symptoms in childhood, especially among already susceptible individuals.