Luis Costa

Linking components of vulnerability in theoretic frameworks and case studies

Clarification on what is meant by ‘vulnerability’ continues as an unresolved problem in a world of inter-connected research fields dealing with natural hazards and of policy-makers eager for vulnerability assessments that will help in steering their decisions. This paper investigates the theoretical definitions of vulnerability components in risk-hazard and climate-change frameworks and the description of these components as operated in vulnerability assessments at the case-study level. The results point to a lower level of heterogeneity in vulnerability interpretations at the case-study level when compared to the semantically rich descriptions of vulnerability components in conceptual frameworks. Despite differences in definitions, vulnerability components such as hazard and exposure, capacities and adaptation, susceptibility and sensitivity, or susceptibility and vulnerability were made operational by the use of similar indicators and methodologies between and within the communities investigated. In order to attain a better understanding of the interdisciplinary use of the term ‘vulnerability’, the comparison of methodologies to assess vulnerability components at the case-study level seems essential.

A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

This is the Supporting Information (SI) to our manuscript A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions. We estimate cumulative CO2 emissions during the period 2000 to 2050 from developed and developing countries based on the empirical relationship between CO2 per capita emissions (due to fossil fuel combustion and cement production) and corresponding HDI. We choose not to include emissions from land use and other greenhouse gases since they were found not to be strongly correlated with personal consumption and national carbon intensities [1]. In addition, data of past CO2 emissions from land use is uncertain due to the lack of historical data of both former ecosystem conditions and the extent of subsequent land use [2]. In order to project per capita emissions of individual countries we make three assumptions which are detailed below. First, we use logistic regressions to fit and extrapolate the HDI on a country level as a function of time. This is mainly motivated by the fact that the HDI is bounded between 0 and 1 and that it decelerates as it approaches 1. Second, we employ for individual countries the correlations between CO2 per capita emissions and HDI in order to extrapolate their emissions. This is an ergodic assumption, i.e. that the process over time and over the statistical ensemble is the same. Third, we let countries with incomplete data records evolve similarly as their close neighbors (in the emissions-HDI plane, see Fig. 1 in the main text) with complete time series of CO2 per capita emissions and HDI. Country–based emissions estimates are obtained by multiplying extrapolated CO2 per capita values by population numbers of three scenarios extracted from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment report [3]. Finally, we propose a reduction scheme, where countries with an HDI above the development threshold reduce their per capita CO2 emissions with a rate that is proportional to their HDI. We estimate the minimum proportionality constant so that the global emissions by 2050 meet the 1000Gt limit.Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world’s population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300 Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20 % to 30 % of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2°C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2°C target after a particular development threshold is reached. For example, in each time step of five years, countries with an HDI of 0.85 would need to reduce their per capita emissions by approx. 17% and countries with an HDI of 0.9 by 33 %. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100 Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2°C.

A Systematic Study of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Interactions

Sustainable development goals (SDGs) have set the 2030 agenda to transform our world by tackling multiple challenges humankind is facing to ensure well-being, economic prosperity, and environmental protection. In contrast to conventional development agendas focusing on a restricted set of dimensions, the SDGs provide a holistic and multidimensional view on development. Hence, interactions among the SDGs may cause diverging results. To analyze the SDG interactions we systematize the identification of synergies and trade-offs using official SDG indicator data for 227 countries. A significant positive correlation between a pair of SDG indicators is classified as a synergy while a significant negative correlation is classified as a trade-off. We rank synergies and trade-offs between SDGs pairs on global and country scales in order to identify the most frequent SDG interactions. For a given SDG, positive correlations between indicator pairs were found to outweigh the negative ones in most countries. Among SDGs the positive and negative correlations between indicator pairs allowed for the identification of particular global patterns. SDG 1 (No poverty) has synergetic relationship with most of the other goals, whereas SDG 12 (Responsible consumption and production) is the goal most commonly associated with trade-offs. The attainment of the SDG agenda will greatly depend on whether the identified synergies among the goals can be leveraged. In addition, the highlighted trade-offs, which constitute obstacles in achieving the SDGs, need to be negotiated and made structurally nonobstructive by deeper changes in the current strategies.

Increasing pressure, declining water and climate change in north-eastern Morocco

The coastal stretch of north-eastern Mediterranean Morocco holds vitally important ecological, social, and economic functions. The implementation of large-scale luxury tourism resorts shall push socio-economic development and facilitate the shift from a mainly agrarian to a service economy. Sufficient water availability and intact beaches are among the key requirements for the successful realization of regional development plans. The water situation is already critical, additional water-intense sectors could overstrain the capacity of water resources. Further, coastal erosion caused by sea-level rise is projected. Regional climate change is observable, and must be included in regional water management. Long-term climate trends are assessed for the larger region (Moulouya basin) and for the near-coastal zone at Saidia. The amount of additional water demand is assessed for the large-dimensioned Saidia resort; including the monthly, seasonal and annual tourist per capita water need under inclusion of irrigated golf courses and garden areas. A shift of climate patterns is observed, a lengthening of the dry summer season, and as well a significant decline of annual precipitation. Thus, current water scarcity is mainly human-induced; however, climate change will aggravate the situation. As a consequence, severe environmental damage due to water scarcity is likely and could impinge on the quality of local tourism. The re-adjustment of current management routines is therefore essential. Possible adjustments are discussed and the analysis concludes with management recommendations for innovative regional water management of tourism facilities.

Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods within the 600 largest European cities

The economic assessment of the impacts of storm surges and sea-level rise in coastal cities requires high-level information on the damage and protection costs associated with varying flood heights. We provide a systematically and consistently calculated dataset of macroscale damage and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities opening the perspective for a wide range of applications. Offering the first comprehensive dataset to include the costs of dike protection, we provide the underpinning information to run comparative assessments of costs and benefits of coastal adaptation. Aggregate cost curves for coastal flooding at the city-level are commonly regarded as by-products of impact assessments and are generally not published as a standalone dataset. Hence, our work also aims at initiating a more critical discussion on the availability and derivation of cost curves.

One millennium of historical freshwater fish occurrence data for Portuguese rivers and streams

The insights that historical evidence of human presence and man-made documents provide are unique. For example, using historical data may be critical to adequately understand the ecological requirements of species. However, historical information about freshwater species distribution remains largely a knowledge gap. In this Data Descriptor, we present the Portuguese Historical Fish Database (PHish–DB), a compilation of 2214 records (557 at the basin scale, 184 at the sub-basin scale and 1473 at the segment scale) resulting from a survey of 194 historical documents. The database was developed using a three-scale approach that maximises the inclusion of information by allowing different degrees of spatial acuity. PHish database contains records of 25 taxonomical groups and covers a time span of one millennium, from the 11th until the 20th century. This database has already proven useful for two scientific studies, and PHish further use will contribute to correctly assess the full range of conditions tolerated by species, by establishing adequate benchmark conditions, and/or to improve existing knowledge of the species distribution limits.