Luís Eduardo Afonso

Ex-Ante Methods to Assess the Impact of Social Insurance Policies on Labor Supply with an Application to Brazil

This paper solves and estimates a stochastic model of optimal inter-temporal behavior to assess how changes in the design of the unemployment benefits and pension systems in Brazil could affect savings rates, the share of time that individuals spend outside of the formal sector, and retirement decisions. Dynamics depend on five main parameters: preferences regarding consumption and leisure, preferences regarding formal versus informal work, attitudes towards risks, the rate of time preference, and the distribution of an exogenous shock that affects movements in and out of the social insurance system (given individual decisions). The yearly household survey is used to create a pseudo panel by age-cohorts and estimate the joint distribution of model parameters based on a generalized version of the Gibbs sampler. The model does a good job in replicating the distribution of the members of a given cohort across states (in or out of the social insurance / active or retired). Because the parameters are related to individual preferences or exogenous shocks, the joint distribution is unlikely to change when the social insurance system changes. Thus, the model is used to explore how alternative policy interventions could affect behaviors and through this channel, benefit levels and fiscal costs. The results from various simulations provide three main insights: (i) the Brazilian social insurance system today might generate unnecessary distortions (lower savings rates and less formal employment) that increase the costs of the system and can induce regressive redistribution; (ii) there are important interactions between the unemployment benefits and pension systems, which calls for joint policy analysis when considering reforms; and (iii) current distortions could be reduced by creating an actuarial link between contributions and benefits and then combining matching contributions and anti-poverty targeted transfers to cover individuals with limited or no savings capacity.

Um estudo sobre os diferenciais de remuneração entre os professores das redes pública e privada de ensino

This paper studies the earnings differentials between public and private professors in the different levels of education. In most of the cases, there is a positive differential in favor of the private sector. This conclusion changes when we compute the Present Value of the Work Contract (PVWC). The PVWC considers all the income received during the workers life span. Here, we compute the present value of the wages received in the working life with the retirement benefits. The results show that the PVCW is higher in the public sector than in the private sector. We compute the internal rate of return (IRR) of the retirement system. We conclude that different retirement rules between the two sectors have a huge impact in the professors´ life earnings with a public IRR higher than the private one. We also conclude that public teachers do not receive lower earnings than their private counterparts.

Reforma da previdência: o encontro marcado

27 (4), 2007Talvez o melhor titulo para esse livro fosse“Tudo que voce queria saber sobre previdencia,mas nao conseguia entender quando os econo-mistas tentaram explicar”. O texto em questaotem varias qualidades. Talvez a principal delas se-ja a capacidade de conciliar em uma so obra umalinguagem quase coloquial e uma abordagem quenao perde o rigor e a precisao no uso dos concei-tos e na analise dos dados.A expressao “Reforma da previdencia” temnos acompanhado ha mais de uma decada. Nominimo desde o inicio do primeiro mandato deFernando Henrique Cardoso e raro o dia em queos meios de comunicacao nao trazem alguma no-ticia relacionada ao tema. Em parte por essa per-sistencia na midia e por algumas concepcoes er-roneamente difundidas, criou-se uma granderesistencia por parte de alguns grupos a qualquerproposta de reforma. Todos aqueles que defen-dem alguma mudanca previdenciaria sao taxadosde neoliberais, alheios a preocupacoes populares,insensiveis e outras qualificacoes menos elogio-sas. Por outro lado, aqueles que pleiteiam cons-tantes beneficios e vantagens arvoram-se comodefensores dos pobres e dos trabalhadores. Co-mo se nao houvesse custos impostos a sociedadepara suportar esses beneficios.Sabedor desse fato e das resistencias ao te-ma, o autor demonstra um cuidado extremo emsua abordagem inicial. Giambiagi retoma no pri-meiro capitulo um episodio marcante de sua vi-da privada, que serve de alerta ao leitor que a ari-dez do assunto nao afeta sua sensibilidade frentea questoes universais como a velhice e a incerte-za a ela associada. Essa tecnica de ilustrar passa-gens do texto com fatos do cotidiano e exemplosde facil assimilacao, empregada varias vezes, apre-senta um bom resultado, pois facilita sobrema-neira a leitura das mais de 220 paginas da obra.Os capitulos do livro (alguns com titulosbastante espirituosos) sao relativamente indepen-dentes entre si. O autor teve a preocupacao de es-colher alguns dos topicos mais relevantes e con-troversos. Por meio desses, guia-se o leitor leigo,que parece ser o publico-alvo, pelas inumeras es-pecificidades da questao previdenciaria no Brasil.No segundo capitulo, apropriadamente de-nominado “O Brasil esta perdendo o bonde dahistoria”, Giambiagi faz uma contextualizacaosobre as recentes mudancas economicas pelasquais o mundo vem passando. Em varios paisespredomina uma cultura de esforcos para aumen-tar a produtividade, busca por novos mercados eincentivos economicos na decisao correta, asso-ciados a investimentos governamentais em infra-estrutura. Ja no Brasil, predomina o que o autorapropriadamente denomina de “cultura do coi-tadinho”, em que sempre se espera que o gover-no solucione todos os problemas dos individuos.Nesse sentido, as perenes dificuldades em refor-mar a previdencia podem ser entendidas comouma mostra desse traco da cultura brasileira.Qualquer tentativa de mudanca na previdencia e

Comprehensive Homeowners Microinsurance in Brazil: Estimation of Pricing and Market Potential

ABSTRACT This study examines the question of comprehensive microinsurance for Brazilian homeowners. In particular, the study calculates (i) pricing for selected types of microinsurance homeowners coverages and insured amounts and (ii) the estimated market potential of this product. The Brazilian agency charged with responsibility for regulation of private insurance, SUSEP, has determined that microinsurance should be aimed at families with a monthly per capita income of up to two minimum wages. According to this criterion, the study finds that there are more than 42 million households in Brazil eligible for microinsurance. The study also finds that microinsurance premiums for these households would be very low (US

Reforma da previdência social e custo de transição: simulando um Sistema Universal para o Brasil

0.97 to 2.03 per month)—less than 1% of average household income. This type of insurance would certainly be viable, considering the calculated market size of approximately US

O impacto da mudança da regra de cálculo das aposentadorias por tempo de contribuição do INSS: o fator previdenciário é atuarialmente justo?

780 million per year. These figures show that there is significant potential for the expansion of the microinsurance market in Brazil.

Análise do conteúdo das provas da área de Ciências Contábeis: edições do Provão 2002/2003 e do ENADE de 2006

This article presents a reform proposal of Brazils pension system. The new system is based on the principles of actuarial fairness, incentive to formalization, universalization and simplification of the social security structure. We calculated the balancing contribution rate to the system. The social security debt is also estimated in the present situation and in the proposed system. In the end, the transition cost of shifting to the new system is calculated. The results show that this cost is high, although is distributed in the time.

O impacto da criação da Funpresp sobre os benefícios previdenciários dos servidores públicos federais

O primeiro objetivo e comparar a regra de calculo das Aposentadorias por Tempo de Contribuicao do RGPS com tres propostas em estudo: Regra 85/95, Media dos 80% maiores salarios e Media dos ultimos 36 salarios. Empregam-se quatro parâmetros de comparacao: Taxa de Reposicao, Taxa Interna de Retorno, Aliquota Efetiva e Aliquota Atuarialmente Justa. O segundo objetivo e calcular o Fator Previdenciario Atuarialmente Justo. O Fator penaliza (incentiva) mais do que o atuarialmente justo as aposentadorias precoces (tardias). As propostas sao mais generosas que a regra atual. Se a Regra 85/95 fosse adotada, os homens seriam mais prejudicados que as mulheres.

Uma análise das formas de remuneração dos sócios por meio do planejamento tributário

Este estudo tem dois objetivos. O primeiro e verificar se as provas da area de Ciencias Contabeis do Provao de 2002/2003 e do ENADE/2006 incluiram os itens que representem adequadamente o dominio de conteudo da area. O segundo objetivo e desenvolver uma analise critica acerca destes testes de desempenho. Para tanto, empregou-se a tecnica do grupo focal. Foram realizadas duas sessoes de entrevistas junto a um grupo de especialistas da area, composto por docentes, estudantes de mestrado e doutorado. Os resultados evidenciam que na percepcao dos participantes do grupo focal os exames podem ser considerados uma aproximacao adequada do nivel de conhecimento cognitivo da area, dado que os principais conteudos foram avaliados pelos testes. Entretanto, na percepcao dos participantes as questoes dos testes nao mensuraram adequadamente as habilidades, atitudes e comportamentos predeterminados pelas comissoes de especialistas da area, nomeadas pelo Instituto Nacional de Estudos e Pesquisas Educacionais Anisio Teixeira (INEP). Os participantes apontaram que o baixo desempenho dos estudantes possa estar relacionado a reduzida motivacao para resolver a prova.

O salário mínimo como instrumento de combate à pobreza extrema: estariam esgotados seus efeitos?

The goal of this study is to quantify the impacts of the creation of Funpresp in 2012, focusing on the active federal civil servants. Using techniques of actuarial mathematics, through the calculation of annuities, we calculate the difference between the retirement benefits in the old and in the new pension regime. The change is unfavorable for all servers of different ages and income levels, with losses of about 15%. Additionally, we analyzed the set of conditions that should be verified so that any worker would be affected by the changes. Only in the highly unlikely circumstances of a real interest rate above 9% or a contribution rate of 47% of the income for Funpresp that would be no reduction in the benefits. These results illustrate the need for action to increase the informational level of civil servants in order they can understand correctly the impacts of the creation of Funpresp.The goal of this study is to quantify the impacts of the creation of Funpresp in 2012, focusing on the active federal civil servants. Using techniques of actuarial mathematics, through the calculation of annuities, we calculate the difference between the retirement benefits in the old and in the new pension regime. The change is unfavorable for all servers of different ages and income levels, with losses of about 15%. Additionally, we analyzed the set of conditions that should be verified so that any worker would be affected by the changes. Only in the highly unlikely circumstances of a real interest rate above 9% or a contribution rate of 47% of the income for Funpresp that would be no reduction in the benefits. These results illustrate the need for action to increase the informational level of civil servants in order they can understand correctly the impacts of the creation of Funpresp.