Luis Felipe Lagos

Efectos Dinámicos de la Política Fiscal

This paper identifies the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on economic activity (GDP) in the Chilean economy. We use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) methodology. The main results are: a positive fiscal expenditure shock has a negative effect on output during the first quarter; afterwards the effect dies out. A positive tax shock also has a negative marginal impact on output for one quarter.

Looking Inside the Black Box: Monetary Policy in Chile

This paper studies monetary policy in Chile during the 1986-1997 period. We concentrate in understanding the monetary transmission mechanism by which the Central Bank instrument - a real interest rate - affects total expenditure, output and the inflation rate. The methodology used is structural VARS. We find a weak effect of the interest rate on all the variables. The interest rate has a significant effect on the expenditure-output gap. Both the interest rate and the expenditure-output gap have a significant effect on the price of non traded goods, in line with the dependent economy model (the Australian model).