Rodrigo Cerda

Inversión Privada e Impuestos Corporativos: Evidencia para Chile

Using annual data from Chile since the beginning of the eighties, we show that an increase in the corporate tax reduces firms investment. However the impact differs across firm size. In small and medium firms, investment as a fraction of the capital stoc

Is fiscal policy effective? Evidence for an emerging economy: Chile 1833–2000

This paper studies the impact of fiscal policy on economic activity by using Chilean annual data from 1833 to 2000. The data allows us to disentangle the impacts on economic activity -- due to the large variation in fiscal policy in the period under study -- by using a SVAR methodology. The study finds evidence of non Keynesian impacts of fiscal policy.

Efectos Dinámicos de la Política Fiscal

This paper identifies the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on economic activity (GDP) in the Chilean economy. We use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) methodology. The main results are: a positive fiscal expenditure shock has a negative effect on output during the first quarter; afterwards the effect dies out. A positive tax shock also has a negative marginal impact on output for one quarter.

Market power and primary commodity prices: the case of copper

This study identifies the economic fundamentals of the evolution of copper price. Its main hypothesis is that copper price is mainly determined by the evolution of demand of countries with large market power on that market. The novelty is that nominal exchange rates are one of the fundamentals of market power. Monthly data are used ranging from 1994 to 2003 and by means of a cointegration analysis; it is found that the Asian bloc significantly affects the price of this tradable good.

Impact of economic uncertainty in a small open economy: the case of Chile

ABSTRACT We construct the first news-based economic uncertainty index for Chile, which allowed us to rebuild 23 years of the history of economic uncertainty in the country and quantify its impact on the economy. We find that an increase in economic uncertainty conveys a fall in GDP, investment, and employment, even after accounting for the small open economy nature of Chile. In contrast to previous studies for big and developed economies, we do not find evidence of an overshooting effect when uncertainty dissipates; therefore, increases in economic uncertainty have negative effects on the economy, even in the long-run. Our estimates suggest that these impacts range from 10% to 20% for aggregate investment, 2.5% to 5% for GDP, and 1.3% to 4.2% for employment. Extensions suggest that economic uncertainty affects both mining and non-mining investment, with the former showing a more pronounced decline. We also find that the bulk of effect of economic uncertainty on aggregate investment is via private investment, with some short-run impacts on public investment. Moreover, compared to the GDP response, aggregate consumption responds in almost the same way to an economic uncertainty shock.

Economic Uncertainty Impact in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Chile

We construct the first news-based economic uncertainty index for Chile, which allowed us to rebuild 23 years of the economic uncertainty history of the country and quantify its impact over the economy. We find that an increase in economic uncertainty conveys a fall in GDP, investment and employment even after accounting for the small open economy nature of Chile. In contrast to previous studies for important and developed economies, we do not find evidence of an overshooting effect when uncertainty dissipates; therefore, increases in economic uncertainties have negative effects over the economy even in the long-run. Our estimates suggest that these impacts range from: 10 to 20 percent for aggregate investment, 2.5 and 5 percent for GDP and 1.3 to 4.2 for employment. Extensions suggest that both mining and non-mining investment are affected by economic uncertainty with the former showing a more pronounced decline. We also find that the bulk of the economic uncertainty effect over aggregate investment is via private investment, with some short-run impacts in public investment. Moreover, compared to the GDP response, aggregate consumption responds in almost the same way to an economic uncertainty shock.

Understanding Domestic Savings in Chile

This paper constructs time series data on savings per type of agent for Chile during the period 1960-2012. It is found that the economys average savings rate increased by 11 percentage points in the period 1985-2012 compared to 1960- 1984, with particularly pronounced growth in corporate savings. The evidence suggests that this increase was driven largely by the following measures: i) pension reform that introduced mandatory savings and private sector management, ii) banking reform, iii) tax reform, iv) capital markets reform and v) privatizations.

Inflation of Tradable Goods

This article explores which large economy blocks determine foreign inflation around the world. In the analysis, we focus on importable goods of 15 countries ranging from 1992 to 2003 at monthly basis. Using a SUR estimation, we find the US driving the inflation of importable goods around the world. However, decomposing the variation of importable good price indexes by frequency, by means of the Baxter–King approximate band pass filter, we find that the Asian area might be a source of considerable inflation on the short-run.

ANÁLISIS DEL TIPO DE CAMBIO REAL: CHILE 1986-1999Chile 1986-1999

This paper incorporates demand and supply fundamentals in the determination of the Real Exchange Rate (RER). We are able to confirm the negative influence of the ratio expenditure-PIB and the terms of trade on RER, but in addition we find robust evidence