Luis Miguel Martínez

Effects of transportation accessibility on residential property values: hedonic price model in the Lisbon, Portugal, metropolitan area

The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between the availability of transportation infrastructure and services and the pattern of house prices in an urban area and to assess whether public investment in transportation can modify residential property values. This study was developed for the Lisbon, Portugal, metropolitan area (LMA) as part of a broader study that intends to develop new value-capture financing schemes for public transportation in the LMA. The paper focuses on three central municipalities in Portugal (Amadora, Lisbon, and Odivelas), where these effects could be more easily measured because of the existence of a significant variability of public transportation services. The paper tries to determine, with different spatial hedonic pricing models, the extent to which access to transportation infrastructure currently is capitalized into house prices and isolates the influence of three different transportation infrastructures: metro, rail, and road. The results suggest that the proximity to one or two metro lines leads to significant property value changes. Results further indicate that the classic hedonic price model (ordinary least-squares estimation) leads to similar coefficient values of the local accessibility dummy variables compared with the spatial lag model and thus provides a steady basis to forecast the property value changes derived from transportation investment for the study area in the absence of a significant property value database.

Using a multi equation model to unravel the influence of land use patterns on travel behavior of workers in Lisbon

Abstract This work addresses the relations between travel behavior and land use patterns using a simultaneous equation model system framework. The proposed model structure draws on an earlier model developed for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA), using data from a survey made in 1994, which concluded for the existence of significant effects of land use patterns on travel behavior, whereas the data used here were collected in 2009. During the last 15 years several and important changes have occurred in the study area with transport provision increasing substantially. Also several socioeconomic changes occurred that were accompanied by a strong increase in auto-ownership and an increase in urban sprawl. The research presented in this paper aims to answer an important policy question: Does the relation between travel behavior and land use patters found in 1994 still hold? And if not which changes occurred in 15 years? The behavior variables included here are multidimensional and include home location, car ownership, amount of mobility by mode, and the total time spent between the first and last trips in a day. The land use patterns are described by factors both at the residence and employment zones of each individual. The model results confirm the important role of land use on travel behavior in 2009 as we found for 1994 and the importance for public transportation in spite of the heavy investment in infrastructure for private cars.

Zoning Decisions in Transport Planning and Their Impact on the Precision of Results

In most transport planning studies, one of the first steps is the definition of a zoning scheme into which the study area is divided and the corresponding space is discretized. There are no clear rules on how to carry out this operation in an optimal way, and the dominating practice is to proceed on the basis of experience, trying to mix a certain degree of within-zone homogeneity and the convenience of using administrative borders as zone limits. The potential errors generated with this operation were examined, both at the statistical level when trip matrices are based on sampling and at the geographical level when all trips starting or ending in a zone are assumed to do so at its centroid. A set of quality criteria for a general zoning scheme and an algorithm that constructs a basic zoning on the basis of a sample of geo-referenced trip extreme points and improves it in successive steps according to those criteria are presented. A case study based on the mobility survey for the Lisbon, Portugal, metropolitan area illustrates those steps and the improvements achieved in each step. The magnitude of those improvements is significant and shows that more attention should definitely be given to this initial process in the transport planning studies.

Cellular Agent–Based Approach Incorporating Spatial Discrete Choice Methods: Simulation of Future Land Use Impacts of High-Speed Rail on Aveiro, Portugal

A cellular agent–based model was designed to simulate the potential land use impacts of the future high-speed rail (HSR) service on the city of Aveiro, Portugal, and its neighboring municipalities. The model incorporated a spatial discrete choice method as a submodel, which estimated land use evolution behavior based on the growth of socioeconomic variables and the increase of road and railway accessibility. For validation purposes, the model was first run to test the historical land use change in the study area from 1991 to 2011. Based on the validated model, an analysis of three scenarios with different hypothetical HSR station locations was implemented to estimate the future land use impacts of HSR between 2011 and 2031. The simulation revealed that the introduction of HSR service could offer great opportunities for land use development in the area and that the station location within the city of Aveiro showed relatively better attractiveness to the development of new urban fabric and commercial and industrial land covers.

Modelling Daily Mobility Satisfaction Using a Structural Equation Model

Recent research has started to focus on understanding the elements that influence the perception of users with the existent mobility options and their impact over the stated performance or satisfaction evaluation. The main methodology that has been applied to extract this information has been confirmatory factor analysis under a Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) framework. With this work, we intend to develop a new modelling approach using structural equation models, under a path analysis approach that not only allows understanding which attributes influence satisfaction but also allows predicting its values based on the exogenous measurable variables. The model obtained, presents an acceptable fit and was able to provide some insightful conclusions on the relation between satisfaction and accessibility, mobility, land use and socio-demographic characteristics.

From accessibility improvement to land development: a comparative study on the impacts of Madrid-Seville high-speed rail

Abstract This paper studies the impacts of Madrid-Seville High-Speed Rail (HSR) on land-cover change in the five HSR connected cities – Madrid, Ciudad Real, Puertollano, Cordoba, and Seville. The analysis period ranges from 1991 to 2006. The study finds that, in the Madrid-Seville region, the land development process concentrates mostly toward the two largest cities, Madrid and Seville, while other smaller HSR served cities are also benefited. The process of land development in each city varies largely. HSR contributes more to Ciudad Real and Cordoba than to Puertollano, with booming urban development in the former two cities. To study the accessibility impacts of HSR, binary discrete choice models are adopted. The results suggest that, the land development in smaller cities can be mainly explained by the improvement of regional accessibility and population growth. However, to model the urban development process in Madrid and Seville, the inputs with only accessibility and population are not sufficient.

Simulated Effects of the Location of High-Speed Rail Stations on Land Development: Case Study of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal

This paper studies the effects of high-speed rail (HSR) on land cover change in the Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) in Portugal according to a bilevel cellular automata/agent-based modeling framework. The model incorporates spatial mixed logit models at the local level and panel simultaneous equations models at the regional level. The regional submodel generates socioeconomic activities that are input into the local submodel for land development. The regional activities are also influenced by the local outputs. A backcasting simulation is executed to validate the model on the basis of the actual land cover change from 1991 to 2011. Five scenarios are then designed according to the numbers and the locations of HSR stations in the LMA. The simulation shows that the unbuilt land covers are largely developed by 2031, regardless of the inauguration of HSR. Under the scenarios with HSR, because of the dramatic improvement of accessibility, the land cover change speed is largely accelerated. With an additional station on the southern bank of the Tagus River, the overall accessibility does not further increase from the scenario with only one HSR station. Thus, the total land development remains similar. The enhanced access to the HSR service from the additional station contributes to the redistribution of the land cover change activities by moving them slightly southeastward. The results highlight the effect that station location could have on land cover change, pointing out the importance of carefully choosing the location.