Luiz G. A. Alves

Distance to the Scaling Law: A Useful Approach for Unveiling Relationships between Crime and Urban Metrics

We report on a quantitative analysis of relationships between the number of homicides, population size and ten other urban metrics. By using data from Brazilian cities, we show that well-defined average scaling laws with the population size emerge when investigating the relations between population and number of homicides as well as population and urban metrics. We also show that the fluctuations around the scaling laws are log-normally distributed, which enabled us to model these scaling laws by a stochastic-like equation driven by a multiplicative and log-normally distributed noise. Because of the scaling laws, we argue that it is better to employ logarithms in order to describe the number of homicides in function of the urban metrics via regression analysis. In addition to the regression analysis, we propose an approach to correlate crime and urban metrics via the evaluation of the distance between the actual value of the number of homicides (as well as the value of the urban metrics) and the value that is expected by the scaling law with the population size. This approach has proved to be robust and useful for unveiling relationships/behaviors that were not properly carried out by the regression analysis, such as the non-explanatory potential of the elderly population when the number of homicides is much above or much below the scaling law, the fact that unemployment has explanatory potential only when the number of homicides is considerably larger than the expected by the power law, and a gender difference in number of homicides, where cities with female population below the scaling law are characterized by a number of homicides above the power law.

Scaling laws in the dynamics of crime growth rate

The increasing number of crimes in areas with large concentrations of people have made cities one of the main sources of violence. Understanding characteristics of how crime rate expands and its relations with the cities size goes beyond an academic question, being a central issue for contemporary society. Here, we characterize and analyze quantitative aspects of murders in the period from 1980 to 2009 in Brazilian cities. We find that the distribution of the annual, biannual and triannual logarithmic homicide growth rates exhibit the same functional form for distinct scales, that is, a scale invariant behavior. We also identify asymptotic power-law decay relations between the standard deviations of these three growth rates and the initial size. Further, we discuss similarities with complex organizations.

Analogies Between the Cracking Noise of Ethanol-Dampened Charcoal and Earthquakes

We report on an extensive characterization of the cracking noise produced by charcoal samples when dampened with ethanol. We argue that the evaporation of ethanol causes transient and irregularly distributed internal stresses that promote the fragmentation of the samples and mimic some situations found in mining processes. The results show that, in general, the most fundamental seismic laws ruling earthquakes (the Gutenberg-Richter law, the unified scaling law for the recurrence times, Omoris law, the productivity law, and Båths law) hold under the conditions of the experiment. Some discrepancies were also identified (a smaller exponent in the Gutenberg-Richter law, a stationary behavior in the aftershock rates for long times, and a double power-law relationship in the productivity law) and are related to the different loading conditions. Our results thus corroborate and elucidate the parallel between the seismic laws and fracture experiments caused by a more complex loading condition that also occurs in natural and induced seismicity (such as long-term fluid injection and gas-rock outbursts in mining processes).

Transient Superdiffusion and Long-Range Correlations in the Motility Patterns of Trypanosomatid Flagellate Protozoa.

We report on a diffusive analysis of the motion of flagellate protozoa species. These parasites are the etiological agents of neglected tropical diseases: leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania amazonensis and Leishmania braziliensis, African sleeping sickness caused by Trypanosoma brucei, and Chagas disease caused by Trypanosoma cruzi. By tracking the positions of these parasites and evaluating the variance related to the radial positions, we find that their motions are characterized by a short-time transient superdiffusive behavior. Also, the probability distributions of the radial positions are self-similar and can be approximated by a stretched Gaussian distribution. We further investigate the probability distributions of the radial velocities of individual trajectories. Among several candidates, we find that the generalized gamma distribution shows a good agreement with these distributions. The velocity time series have long-range correlations, displaying a strong persistent behavior (Hurst exponents close to one). The prevalence of “universal” patterns across all analyzed species indicates that similar mechanisms may be ruling the motion of these parasites, despite their differences in morphological traits. In addition, further analysis of these patterns could become a useful tool for investigating the activity of new candidate drugs against these and others neglected tropical diseases.

Scale-Adjusted Metrics for Predicting the Evolution of Urban Indicators and Quantifying the Performance of Cities.

More than a half of world population is now living in cities and this number is expected to be two-thirds by 2050. Fostered by the relevancy of a scientific characterization of cities and for the availability of an unprecedented amount of data, academics have recently immersed in this topic and one of the most striking and universal finding was the discovery of robust allometric scaling laws between several urban indicators and the population size. Despite that, most governmental reports and several academic works still ignore these nonlinearities by often analyzing the raw or the per capita value of urban indicators, a practice that actually makes the urban metrics biased towards small or large cities depending on whether we have super or sublinear allometries. By following the ideas of Bettencourt et al. [PLoS ONE 5 (2010) e13541], we account for this bias by evaluating the difference between the actual value of an urban indicator and the value expected by the allometry with the population size. We show that this scale-adjusted metric provides a more appropriate/informative summary of the evolution of urban indicators and reveals patterns that do not appear in the evolution of per capita values of indicators obtained from Brazilian cities. We also show that these scale-adjusted metrics are strongly correlated with their past values by a linear correspondence and that they also display crosscorrelations among themselves. Simple linear models account for 31%–97% of the observed variance in data and correctly reproduce the average of the scale-adjusted metric when grouping the cities in above and below the allometric laws. We further employ these models to forecast future values of urban indicators and, by visualizing the predicted changes, we verify the emergence of spatial clusters characterized by regions of the Brazilian territory where we expect an increase or a decrease in the values of urban indicators.

Empirical analysis on the connection between power-law distributions and allometries for urban indicators

We report on the existing connection between power-law distributions and allometries. As it was first reported in Gomez-Lievano et al. (2012) for the relationship between homicides and population, when these urban indicators present asymptotic power-law distributions, they can also display specific allometries among themselves. Here, we present an extensive characterization of this connection when considering all possible pairs of relationships from twelve urban indicators of Brazilian cities (such as child labor, illiteracy, income, sanitation and unemployment). Our analysis reveals that all our urban indicators are asymptotically distributed as power laws and that the proposed connection also holds for our data when the allometric relationship displays enough correlations. We have also found that not all allometric relationships are independent and that they can be understood as a consequence of the allometric relationship between the urban indicator and the population size. We further show that the residuals fluctuations surrounding the allometries are characterized by an almost constant variance and log-normal distributions.

Solutions for a q-generalized Schrödinger equation of entangled interacting particles

We report on the time dependent solutions of the q-generalized Schrodinger equation proposed by Nobre et al. (2011). Here we investigate the case of two free particles and also the case where two particles were subjected to a Moshinsky-like potential with time dependent coefficients. We work out analytical and numerical solutions for different values of the parameter q and also show that the usual Schrodinger equation is recovered in the limit of q→1. An intriguing behavior was observed for q=2, where the wave function displays a ring-like shape, indicating a bind behavior of the particles. Differently from the results previously reported for the case of one particle, frozen states appear only for special combinations of the wave function parameters in case of q=3.

Investigating the interplay between mechanisms of anomalous diffusion via fractional Brownian walks on a comb-like structure

The comb model is a simplified description for anomalous diffusion under geometric constraints. It represents particles spreading out in a two-dimensional space where the motions in the x-direction are allowed only when the y coordinate of the particle is zero. Here, we propose an extension for the comb model via Langevin-like equations driven by fractional Gaussian noises (long-range correlated). By carrying out computer simulations, we show that the correlations in the y-direction affect the diffusive behavior in the x-direction in a non-trivial fashion, resulting in a quite rich diffusive scenario characterized by usual, superdiffusive or subdiffusive scaling of second moment in the x-direction. We further show that the long-range correlations affect the probability distribution of the particle positions in the x-direction, making their tails longer when noise in the y-direction is persistent and shorter for anti-persistent noise. Our model thus combines and allows the study/analysis of the interplay between different mechanisms of anomalous diffusion (geometric constraints and long-range correlations) and may find direct applications for describing diffusion in complex systems such as living cells.

Crime prediction through urban metrics and statistical learning

Abstract Understanding the causes of crime is a longstanding issue in researcher’s agenda. While it is a hard task to extract causality from data, several linear models have been proposed to predict crime through the existing correlations between crime and urban metrics. However, because of non-Gaussian distributions and multicollinearity in urban indicators, it is common to find controversial conclusions about the influence of some urban indicators on crime. Machine learning ensemble-based algorithms can handle well such problems. Here, we use a random forest regressor to predict crime and quantify the influence of urban indicators on homicides. Our approach can have up to 97% of accuracy on crime prediction, and the importance of urban indicators is ranked and clustered in groups of equal influence, which are robust under slightly changes in the data sample analyzed. Our results determine the rank of importance of urban indicators to predict crime, unveiling that unemployment and illiteracy are the most important variables for describing homicides in Brazilian cities. We further believe that our approach helps in producing more robust conclusions regarding the effects of urban indicators on crime, having potential applications for guiding public policies for crime control.

Long-range correlations and fractal dynamics in C. elegans: Changes with aging and stress

Reduced motor control is one of the most frequent features associated with aging and disease. Nonlinear and fractal analyses have proved to be useful in investigating human physiological alterations with age and disease. Similar findings have not been established for any of the model organisms typically studied by biologists, though. If the physiology of a simpler model organism displays the same characteristics, this fact would open a new research window on the control mechanisms that organisms use to regulate physiological processes during aging and stress. Here, we use a recently introduced animal-tracking technology to simultaneously follow tens of Caenorhabdits elegans for several hours and use tools from fractal physiology to quantitatively evaluate the effects of aging and temperature stress on nematode motility. Similar to human physiological signals, scaling analysis reveals long-range correlations in numerous motility variables, fractal properties in behavioral shifts, and fluctuation dynamics over a wide range of timescales. These properties change as a result of a superposition of age and stress-related adaptive mechanisms that regulate motility.