Luke P. Shoo

Towards an integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change.

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. A novel integrated framework to assess vulnerability and prioritize research and management action aims to improve our ability to respond to this emerging crisis.

Abundance and the Environmental Niche: Environmental Suitability Estimated from Niche Models Predicts the Upper Limit of Local Abundance

Ecologists seek to understand patterns of distribution and abundance of species. Studies of distribution often use occurrence data to build models of the environmental niche of a species. Environmental suitability (ES) derived from such models may be used to predict the potential distributions of species. The ability of such models to predict spatial patterns in abundance is unknown; we argue that there should be a positive relationship between ES and local abundance. This will be so if ES reflects how well the species’ physiological and ecological requirements are met at a site and if those factors also determine local abundance. However, the presence of other factors may indicate that potential abundance is not attained at all sites. Therefore, ES should predict the upper limit of abundance, and the observed relationship with ES should be wedge shaped. We tested the relationship of ES with local abundance for 69 rain forest vertebrates in the Australian wet tropics. Ordinary least squares and quantile regressions revealed a positive relationship between ES and local abundance for most species (>84%). The relationships for these species were wedge shaped. We conclude that ES modeled from presence‐only data provides useful information on spatial patterns of abundance, and we discuss implications of this in addressing important problems in ecology.

Ecological specialization and population size in a biodiversity hotspot: how rare species avoid extinction

Species with narrow environmental niches typically have small geographic ranges. Small range size is, in turn, often associated with low local abundance. Together, these factors should mean that ecological specialists have very small total populations, putting them at high risk of extinction. But some specialized and geographically restricted species are ancient, and some ecological communities have high proportions of rare and specialized endemics. We studied niche characteristics and patterns of distribution and abundance of terrestrial vertebrates in the rainforests of the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT) to identify mechanisms by which rare species might resist extinction. We show that species with narrow environmental niches and small geographic ranges tend to have high and uniform local abundances. The compensation of geographic rarity by local abundance is exact, such that total population size in the rainforest vertebrates of the AWT is independent of environmental specialization. This effect would tend to help equalize extinction risk for specialists and generalists. Phylogenetic analysis suggests that environmental specialists have been gradually accumulating in this fauna, indicating that small range size/environmental specialization can be a successful trait as long as it is compensated for by demographic commonness. These results provide an explanation of how range-restricted specialists can persist for long periods, so that they now form a major component of high-diversity assemblages such as the AWT.

EVIDENCE OF CONSTRAINED PHENOTYPIC EVOLUTION IN A CRYPTIC SPECIES COMPLEX OF AGAMID LIZARDS

Lineages that exhibit little morphological change over time provide a unique opportunity to explore whether nonadaptive or adaptive processes explain the conservation of morphology over evolutionary time scales. We provide the most comprehensive evaluation to date of the evolutionary processes leading to morphological similarity among species in a cryptic species complex, incorporating two agamid lizard species (Diporiphora magna and D. bilineata). Phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial (ND2) and nuclear (RAG‐1) gene regions revealed the existence of eight deeply divergent clades. Analysis of morphological data confirmed the presence of cryptic species among these clades. Alternative evolutionary hypotheses for the morphological similarity of species were tested using a combination of phylogenetic, morphological, and ecological data. Likelihood model testing of morphological data suggested a history of constrained phenotypic evolution where lineages have a tendency to return to their medial state, whereas ecological data showed support for both Brownian motion and constrained evolution. Thus, there was an overriding signature of constrained evolution influencing morphological divergence between clades. Our study illustrates the utility of using a combination of phylogenetic, morphological, and ecological data to investigate evolutionary mechanisms maintaining cryptic species.

Making decisions to conserve species under climate change

Severe impacts on biodiversity are predicted to arise from climate change. These impacts may not be adequately addressed by conventional approaches to conservation. As a result, additional management actions are now being considered. However, there is currently limited guidance to help decision makers choose which set of actions (and in what order) is most appropriate for species that are considered to be vulnerable. Here, we provide a decision framework for the full complement of actions aimed at conserving species under climate change from ongoing conservation in existing refugia through various forms of mobility enhancement to ex situ conservation outside the natural environment. We explicitly recognize that allocation of conservation resources toward particular actions may be governed by factors such as the likelihood of success, cost and likely co-benefits to non-target species in addition to perceived vulnerability of individual species. As such, we use expert judgment of probable tradeoffs in resource allocation to inform the sequential evaluation of proposed management interventions.

Overview of the conservation status of Australian frogs

A review of the current conservation status of Australian amphibians was recently completed as part of a World Conservation Union (IUCN) sponsored Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA). Fifty of 216 amphibian species (23%) in Australia are now recognized as threatened or extinct in accord with IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. Here we report on the categories and criteria under which individual species qualified for listing and provide a summary of supporting information pertaining to population and distribution declines. Major threatening processes contributing to listing of species are also reviewed.

Integrating plant- and animal- based perspectives for more effective restoration of biodiversity

Ecological restoration of modified and degraded landscapes is an important challenge for the 21st century, with potential for major gains in the recovery of biodiversity. However, there is a general lack of agreement between plant- and animal-based approaches to restoration, both in theory and practice. Here, we review these approaches, identify limitations from failing to effectively integrate their different perspectives, and suggest ways to improve outcomes for biodiversity recovery in agricultural landscapes. We highlight the need to strengthen collaboration between plant and animal ecologists, to overcome disciplinary and cultural differences, and to achieve a more unified approach to restoration ecology. Explicit consideration of key ecosystem functions, the need to plan at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and the importance of plant–animal interactions can provide a bridge between plant- and animal-based methods. A systematic approach to restoration planning is critical to achieving effective biodiversity outcomes while meeting long-term social and economic needs.

Distributions, life‐history specialization, and phylogeny of the rain forest vertebrates in the Australian Wet Tropics

The purpose of this data set was to compile distributional, general life-history characteristics and phylogenies for Australian tropical rain forest vertebrates to inform a wide range of comparative studies on the determinants of biodiversity patterns and to assess the impacts of global climate change. We provide three distinct data sets: (1) a table of species-specific distributional and life-history traits for 242 vertebrate species found in the rain forests of the Australian Wet Tropics; (2) species distribution maps (GIS raster files) for 202 of the species displaying both the realized and potential distributions; and (3) phylogenies for these species. These species represent 93 birds, 31 amphibians, 31 mammals (including one monotreme), and 47 reptiles. Where information exists, the distributional and life-history data compiled here present information on: indices of environmental specialization (ENFA), habitat specialization, average body mass and size, sexual dimorphism, reproductive characteristics such as age at first reproduction, clutch/litter size, number of reproductive bouts per year and breeding seasonality, longevity, time of day when most active, and dispersal ability; distributional characteristics such as range size (potential and realized for both total and core ranges) and observed ranges in temperature, precipitation, and elevation; and niche attributes such as environmental marginality and specialization. The distribution maps provided represent a combination of presence-only ecological niche modeling (using MaxEnt) to estimate the potential distribution of a species followed by biogeographic clipping by expert opinion based on extensive field data and a subregional classification relevant to the topography and biogeographic history of the region to produce best-possible estimates of the realized distribution. Our assemblage contains many species with a shared evolutionary history, and thus many analyses of these data will need to account for phylogeny. Although a comprehensive phylogeny with branch length information does not exist for this diverse group of species, we present a best-estimate composite phylogeny constructed primarily from recently published molecular phylogenies of included groups.

Potential for mountaintop boulder fields to buffer species against extreme heat stress under climate change.

Species may circumvent or minimize some impacts resulting from climate change by utilizing microhabitats that buffer against extreme events (e.g., heat waves). Boulder field habitats are considered to have functioned as important refugia for rainforest fauna during historical climate fluctuations. However, quantitative data on microhabitat buffering potential in these habitats is lacking. We characterized temperature buffering over small distances (i.e., depths) within an exposed and forested boulder field on a tropical mountain. We demonstrate that temperatures are cooler and become more stable at increasing depths within boulder fields. The magnitude of difference is most pronounced in exposed situations where temperatures within boulder fields can be as much as 10°C lower than near surface conditions. Our data provide a first step toward building models that more realistically predict exposure to heat stress for fauna that utilize rocky habitats.

Moving beyond the conceptual: specificity in regional climate change adaptation actions for biodiversity in South East Queensland, Australia

While many scientific assessments have been recommending general strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change, translation of these recommendations into specific actions and practice has been limited. Focusing on two biomes, rainforest and wetlands in biodiverse South East Queensland, Australia, we demonstrate how general principles can be translated into specific actions for stakeholders and responsible agencies. We synthesize research that is contextualizing protection of refugia and habitat connectivity, establishing baseline data sets to detect change and developing strategic conservation planning scenarios to adjust reserve boundaries or situate new reserves. This has been achieved by coupling spatial information on biological assets (i.e. ecosystems and species) with future climate scenarios and process models to anticipate movement of critical habitats. Conservation planning software is also being used to prioritize investment to meet specific objectives. This approach is enabling us to identify at-risk biological assets, opportunities to ameliorate threats and obstacles to delivering regional adaptation actions. A larger total reserved area is needed, with proactive planning to capture areas further inland and along watercourses. Major obstacles include conflict between urbanization and priorities for habitat conservation and the need for greater levels of investment for monitoring programmes and to protect landward shifted wetlands on private land.