M. Azali

Does PPP hold between Asian and Japanese economies? Evidence using panel unit root and panel cointegration

This paper presents an empirical analysis of panel unit root and panel cointegration tests of long-run absolute purchasing power parity (PPP) for seven Asian developing economies (ADE). The evidence shows that the panel parametric and non-parametric tests either with a trend term or without a trend term support the hypothesis of cointegration between the bilateral exchange rates and relative prices against the selected foreign country — Japan.

Financial integration and the ASEAN-5 equity markets

The existence of long-run relationships among the ASEAN-5 equity markets is empirically investigated. This study utilized weekly data spanning January 1988 to August 1999. The results of Granger noncausality test due to Toda and Yamamoto (Journal of Econometrics,66, 225–50, 1995) reveal that the Singapore equity market was not affected by other markets except by the Philippines in the long run. This result shows that there exist opportunities for beneficial international portfolio diversification within the context of the Asean-5 equity markets.

Money-income and credit-income relationships during the pre- and the post-liberalization periods: evidence from Malaysia

Using the Bernankes contemporaneous structural VAR, this paper investigates the role of money and credit in the monetary transmission mechanism during the pre- and post-liberalization periods in Malaysia. During the pre-liberalization period where credit and interest rates were regulated, the evidence supports the dominance of bank credit shocks over money shocks in explaining the output variability. After the liberalization of financial market, however, money as well as credit innovations were proven to make significant contribution to the output fluctuation.

The stock market and the ringgit exchange rate: a note

Abstract This paper presents and tests an augmented monetary model that includes the effect of stock prices on the bilateral exchange rates. The model is applied to the ringgit/US dollar (RM/US) and ringgit/Japanese yen (RM/JY) exchange rates. The empirical analysis is conducted by the Johansen method of cointegration. Using the data from the recent float that ends with 1996:Q4, the study is motivated, among others, by an interesting preliminary finding that although the augmented monetary model is cointegrated, it is subject to parameter instability and that the parameter time dependency can be attributed at least partly to a particular subset of the variables in the system including stock prices. We find that a restricted VAR model which imposes exogeneity restrictions on I(1) variables, such as stock prices, among others, exhibits both cointegration and parameter stability. In addition, we demonstrate that exchange rate adjusts to clear any disequilibrium in the long-run relationship. The empirical findings tend to suggest that the equity market is significant in affecting the exchange rate and in explaining at least in part the parameter instability evidenced in the cointegrating system. Hence, we conclude that models of equilibrium exchange rate should be extended to include equity markets in addition to bond markets.

The monetary approach to exchange rate determination for Malaysia

This article uses alternative versions of the monetary approach to exchange rate determination to explain the Malaysian-ringgit-USD exchange rate during the recent past. The result shows that in general the estimated coefficients of money and income differentials are consistent with all variants of monetary model. In particular, the evidence strongly supports the Bilsons version of the monetary approach.

CURRENCY LINKAGES AMONG ASEAN

The purpose of this study is to examine the potential linkages among ASEAN-5 currencies, in particular the possibility of a Singapore dollar bloc during the pre- and post-crisis periods by using the Johansen multivariate cointegration test and the Granger causality test. Significant nonstationarity and the presence of unit roots were documented for each currency under both study periods. Using ASEAN-4 exchange rates against the Singapore dollar, the Johansen cointegration test showed that there was no cointegrating relationship during the pre-crisis period. However there were two statistically significant cointegrating vectors among ASEAN exchange rates for the post-crisis period. These findings imply that there is low financial integration before the crisis, but that ASEAN countries are financially more integrated after the crisis. This finding also indicates increasingly role of the Singapore dollar in ASEAN. Therefore, the Singapore dollar may be a possible candidate as the common currency for ASEAN. The analysis is repeated by adding the US dollar to the model. The finding ascertains the influence of the US dollar on ASEAN currencies before the crisis.

Tests of the different variants of the monetary model in a developing economy: Malaysian experience in the pre- and post-crisis periods

This study examines the validity of four different variants of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for Malaysia covering both the pre- and post-crisis periods using the vector error-correction models. The findings demonstrate that for both periods, the variables used are cointegrated. Tests tend to suggest that of the four variants of monetary model, the sticky-price model holds in both periods and the flexible-price model holds only in the post-crisis period. The proportionality between the exchange rate and relative money does not hold in any period. The plotted actual and fitted exchange rates for both sub-samples show that the models are able to track the actual exchange rate trend quiet well.

Tests of different monetary aggregates for the monetary models of the exchange rate in five ASEAN countries

This study examines the usefulness of divisia money, relative to simple sum money, for exchange rate modelling in a period of rapid financial deregulation. This comparison is conducted using the monetary model of the exchange rate. In the long-run modelling, the divisia money is significantly superior to simple sum money in the case of Malaysia and the Philippines while indifferent for Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand.

Monetary policy effectiveness and stock market cycles in ASEAN-5

This article examines the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on real output in bull and bear phases of stock market in five ASEAN economies (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand) using the recently developed pooled mean group (PMG) technique. Stock market cycles are identified by employing Markov switching models and the rule-based nonparametric approach. Estimating the models using monthly data from 1991:1 to 2011:12, the results show that monetary policy (measured by short-term interest rate) has a negative and statistically significant long-run effect on real output in bull and bear market periods while the effects are stronger in bear periods than bulls. In the short run, there is no statistically significant relationship between monetary policy and real output. These results are consistent with finance constraints (capital market imperfection) models that predict that monetary policy is more effective during bear periods than bulls.

Testing the validity of the monetary model for ASEAN with structural break

This study examines the validity of the long run structural relations underlying the monetary exchange rate model for Malaysia, Singapore, The Philippines and Thailand. Take into consideration the possibility of structural change, we examined the models using recent developed techniques of testing unit root and cointegration with a structural break. Our findings of three cointegrating relations among the variables in the system were further identified by testing theoretical restrictions on the cointegrating equations. The long run relationships were able to be interpreted according to the theory, hence, support the long run validity of the monetary exchange rate model.