W.N.W. Azman-Saini

Testing liquidity constraints in 10 Asian developing countries: an error-correction model approach

An error-correction model is used to estimate the fraction of consumers who are liquidity-constrained in 10 Asian developing countries. Our estimates of the fraction of consumers who are liquidity-constrained range between 0.25 and 0.98. We further investigate whether financial liberalization has resulted in the reduction of liquidity constraints in these countries. However, the results find support for this only in the cases of South Korea, Sri Lanka and Taiwan.

Monetary policy effectiveness and stock market cycles in ASEAN-5

This article examines the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on real output in bull and bear phases of stock market in five ASEAN economies (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand) using the recently developed pooled mean group (PMG) technique. Stock market cycles are identified by employing Markov switching models and the rule-based nonparametric approach. Estimating the models using monthly data from 1991:1 to 2011:12, the results show that monetary policy (measured by short-term interest rate) has a negative and statistically significant long-run effect on real output in bull and bear market periods while the effects are stronger in bear periods than bulls. In the short run, there is no statistically significant relationship between monetary policy and real output. These results are consistent with finance constraints (capital market imperfection) models that predict that monetary policy is more effective during bear periods than bulls.