M. C. Sousa

Numerical modeling of the impact of the Ancão Inlet relocation (Ria Formosa, Portugal)

This work describes the application of hydrodynamic (ELCIRC) and transport (VELA and VELApart) models to the Ria Formosa lagoon (Portugal) to study the impact of the relocation of the Ancao Inlet. Located in the south of Portugal, this lagoon is a mesotidal barrier island system that communicates with the sea through 6 inlets. The Old Ancao Inlet was artificially closed and the New Ancao Inlet was relocated into a westward position. This work investigates the hydrodynamic patterns and the potential pathways of tracers in Ria Formosa in two distinct configurations: before and after the Ancao Inlet relocation. The hydrodynamic model was successfully calibrated and validated against elevation, velocity and inlet discharges data, accurately reproducing the tidal propagation. The inlet relocation increases the magnitude of tidal currents, residual velocities and the tidal prism across the bar, suggesting a better stability. The tracers transport simulations suggest enhanced water exchanges through the Ancao Inlet and smaller residence times in the western part of Ria Formosa with the present configuration. Overall, it is concluded that the Ancao Inlet relocation had a positive contribution towards increasing the water renewal of the western part of the lagoon, thus decreasing its vulnerability to pollution.

Assessment of Wind Pattern Accuracy from the QuikSCAT Satellite and the WRF Model along the Galician Coast (Northwest Iberian Peninsula)

Surface wind along the Galician coast is a key factor allowing the analysis of important oceanographic features that are related to the great primary production in this area, as upwelling events. A comparative analysis between surface winds obtained from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, and in situ observations from buoys along the Galician coast is carried out from November 2008 to October 2009. This comparison evaluates the accuracy of satellite and modeled data. The results show that the wind speeds derived from QuikSCAT and the WRF Model are similar along the coast, with errors ranging from 1.5 to 2 m s 21 . However, QuikSCAT tends to overestimate wind speeds when compared to the buoys measurements. Regarding the wind direction, the RMSE values are about 358 for the stations under analysis. The bias presents a similar pattern between satellite and modeled data, with positive values at the western coast and negative values at the middle and northern coasts, the satellite data always being lower in absolute value than the modeled data. A spatial comparison between QuikSCAT and WRF data is also performed over the whole Galician coast to evaluate the differences between the two datasets. This comparison shows that the modeled wind speed tends to be lower than satellite winds over the entire domain, with the highest RMSE and bias values found for the wind speed and direction observed near the shoreline.

How will Somali coastal upwelling evolve under future warming scenarios

Somali upwelling system, the fifth in the world, presents some unique features compared with the other major upwelling systems: 1) it is a Western Boundary Upwelling System located near the Equator and 2) upwelling affects the moisture responsible for monsoon rainfall. The intensity of Somali coastal upwelling during summer was projected for the twenty first century by means of an ensemble of Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models within the framework of CMIP5 and CORDEX projects, respectively. Regardless global or regional circulation models and the chosen greenhouse warming scenario, the strengthening of Somali coastal upwelling, which increases with latitude, is even higher than observed for the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System. In addition, coastal upwelling strengthening is mainly due to Ekman transport since Ekman pumping shows no clear trend for most of the latitudes. Projected land-sea air temperature and pressure show a clear intensification of land-sea thermal and pressure gradient as a consequence of the global warming, which is likely to affect the strengthening of Somali upwelling verifying the hypothesis of Bakun. As a consequence, projected sea surface temperature warming is less intense nearshore than at oceanic locations, especially at latitudes where upwelling strengthening is more intense.

Effect of Minho estuarine plume on Rias Baixas: numerical modeling approach

ABSTRACT Sousa, M.C., Vaz, N., Alvarez, I. and Dias, J.M., 2013. Effect of Minho estuarine plume on Rias Baixas: numerical modeling approach. The Minho River, situated 30 km south from the Rias Baixas, is the most important freshwater source flowing into the Western Galician coast. This discharge is particularly important in driving the circulation and hydrography of this coastal region. To study this important issue, numerical modeling may constitute an important tool being used to understand the coastal plume effects under different conditions. The main purpose of this study is to implement and validate a marine model able to reproduce the propagation of the Minho estuarine plume. The chosen period for the validation was the spring of 1998, because a high Minho River discharge was reported as well as favorable wind patterns to spread the river plume towards the Rias Baixas. The numerical model MOHID was used through a downscaling approach with a three-level one-way nested scheme. The numerical predictions show good agreement with the observed water level in the entire domain. Also, the measured components of the velocity are well represented by the model, as well as the observed pycnocline, which is predicted for the observed depth. According to the model results, a buoyancy intrusion caused by the Minho river reverses the normal estuarine salinity longitudinal gradient of the Rias de Vigo and Pontevedra. Otherwise, this pattern is not observed in the Ria de Arousa. All these patterns are corroborated by in situ measurements. In summary, the validation results show that the model adequately reproduces the hydrodynamic and thermohaline patterns of the Western Galician coast.

Unusual Circulation Patterns of the Rias Baixas Induced by Minho Freshwater Intrusion (NW of the Iberian Peninsula)

The Minho River, situated 30 km south of the Rias Baixas, is the most important freshwater source flowing into the Western Galician coast (NW of the Iberian Peninsula). The buoyancy generated by the Minho estuarine plume can reverse the normal circulation pattern inside the Rias Baixas affecting the exchange between the Rias and the ocean, changing the input of nutrients. Nevertheless, this inversion of the circulation patterns is not a well-monitored phenomenon. The only published results based on in situ data related to the presence of the Minho River plume inside the Rias de Vigo and Pontevedra correspond to an event measured on spring 1998. In this case unexpectedly higher inflow surface current velocities were found at the Ria de Pontevedra, located further away from Minho River. Thus, the main aim of this study is to research the main factors inducing this unusual pattern on the circulation of the Rias de Vigo and Pontevedra. A numerical model implementation of MOHID previously developed, calibrated, and validated for this coastal area was used. Several scenarios were performed in order to explain the individual effect of the Minho River, rivers discharging into each Rias, and estuarine morphology changes. According to the model results, the Minho River discharge is a key factor in the establishment of the negative circulation, while small rivers inside the Rias slightly attenuate this circulation. The negative circulation was stronger in Ria de Pontevedra independently of the distance of this coastal system from the Minho River mouth, showing that morphologic estuarine features are the main factor justifying the different local circulation patterns.

Why coastal upwelling is expected to increase along the western Iberian Peninsula over the next century

Former studies about coastal upwelling along the Western Iberian Peninsula (WIP) using historical data indicated contradictory results, showing either its strengthening or reduction, while previous studies using Global Climate Models (GCMs) indicated that global warming is likely to intensify this phenomenon although predicting different rates and not justifying the patterns found. Taking advantage of the recent high spatial resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) projections from EURO-CORDEX project (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 8.5), detailed higher accuracy estimations of the spatio-temporal trends of Upwelling Index (UI) along the WIP coast were performed in this study, integrating the coastal mesoscale effects within the framework of climate change. Additionally, this research brings new insights about the origin of the WIP coastal upwelling intensification over the next century. These new projections clarified the upwelling strengthening rates predicted along the coast of the WIP from 2006 to 2099 revealing more prominent changes in the northern limit of the region (25-30m3s-1km-1 per decade between 41.5 and 42.5°N). Trends observed at high latitudes of the region were found to be induced by the displacement of the Azores High, which will intensify (0.03hPa per decade) and drift northeastward (10km per decade) during the 21st century.

A Numerical Study of Local Variations in Tidal Regime of Tagus Estuary, Portugal

Tidal dynamics of shallow estuaries and lagoons is a complex matter that has attracted the attention of a large number of researchers over the last few decades. The main purpose of the present work is to study the intricate tidal dynamics of the Tagus estuary, which states as the largest estuary of the Iberian Peninsula and one of the most important wetlands in Portugal and Europe. Tagus has large areas of low depth and a remarkable geomorphology, both determining the complex propagation of tidal waves along the estuary of unknown manner. A non-linear two-dimensional vertically integrated hydrodynamic model was considered to be adequate to simulate its hydrodynamics and an application developed from the SIMSYS2D model was applied to study the tidal propagation along the estuary. The implementation and calibration of this model revealed its accuracy to predict tidal properties along the entire system. Several model runs enabled the analysis of the local variations in tidal dynamics, through the interpretation of amplitude and phase patterns of the main tidal constituents, tidal asymmetry, tidal ellipses, form factor and tidal dissipation. Results show that Tagus estuary tidal dynamics is extremely dependent on an estuarine resonance mode for the semi-diurnal constituents that induce important tidal characteristics. Besides, the estuarine coastline features and topography determines the changes in tidal propagation along the estuary, which therefore result essentially from a balance between convergence/divergence and friction and advection effects, besides the resonance effects.

Influence of upwelling events on the estuaries of the north-western coast of the Iberian Peninsula

Coastal upwelling is one of the best studied oceanographic phenomena because of its effects on primary production. The western coast of the Iberian Peninsula has high biological diversity, mainly due to this primary production. In this study, the response of salinity and temperature to the occurrence of upwelling was analysed at the Ria de Vigo– and Ria de Aveiro–ocean boundary over the course of a year. Both systems were influenced by similar external forcing, but the response of thermohaline properties differed. Salinity and temperature were dependent on external forcing throughout the water column at Ria de Aveiro, whereas near-bed measurements revealed the presence of upwelled water at Ria de Vigo. Eastern North Atlantic Central Water was observed during spring–summer (summer) at the southern (northern) mouth of Ria de Vigo, but it was not observed at Ria de Aveiro. This difference may be due to the shallowness and narrowness of the Ria de Aveiro mouth, which can limit the entrance of ocean water. The trends found are unlikely to be unique, suggesting that geomorphologic characteristics of system–ocean boundaries determine how physical processes occurring in adjacent coastal areas impact estuarine properties.

Tidal dispersion and flushing times in a multiple inlet lagoon

ABSTRACT Lencart e Silva, J. D., Lopes, C. L., Picado, A., Sousa, M. C., Dias, J. M., 2014. Tidal dispersion and flushing time in a multiple inlet lagoon. In: Green, A.N. and Cooper, J.A.G. (eds.), Proceedings 13th International Coastal Symposium (Durban, South Africa), Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 70, pp. 598–603, ISSN 0749-0208. The Ria Formosa is a tidal multi-inlet shallow-water coastal lagoon located in the south of Portugal, subjected to the dry Mediterranean climate. The tide controls the Rias exchange with the adjacent shelf for most of the hydrological year except for isolated torrential run-off events. Episodes of low hypoxia reported in the literature may be related to the lagoons flushing time, affecting its shellfish production valued at 20 – 50 million €y−1. Over the past decades several observational and modelling studies presented values for the capacity of the tide to renovate the water inside the Ria. However, these studies lack either the spatial resolution to yield results unaffected by numerical diffusion or analyze a very limited part of the lagoons territory. In this work, we use a very-high resolution hydrodynamic model to assess the flushing time exclusively due to tidal forcing inside the Ria Formosa. A bi-dimensional implementation of the finite-volume/finite-difference Eulerian Lagrangian hydrodynamic and transport model (ELCIRC) was used, allowing for the local refinement of the computational domain, which best suits the lagoons complex morphology. The present model configuration was validated for tidal propagation with sea surface elevation collected in 1979/80 at 11 lagoon stations. The validation results show a good agreement between predicted and observed elevations, with root mean square errors lower than 20 cm and skill values higher than 0.98. A set of experiments were carried out by releasing a conservative tracer at different stages of the tide at discrete points of the Ria, where possible environmental hazard hot-spots are located and the flushing e-folding time calculated from the tracers dilution. The results are discussed taking into account the propagation of the tide in this multi-inlet, meandering topography. Evidence is presented of topographic trapping due to the complex spatial distribution of the phase lags of the semi-diurnal tidal constituents. This evidence explains the significant increase of the flushing time from the inlets to the head of the channels, thus justifying the use of detailed spatial resolution when modelling such a complex system.

David and Goliath Revisited: Joint Modelling of the Tagus and Sado Estuaries

ABSTRACT Ribeiro, A.S.; Sousa, M. C.; Lencart e Silva, J. D., and Dias, J.M., 2016. David and Goliath Revisited: Joint Modelling of the Tagus and Sado Estuaries. Proceedings of the 14th International Coastal Symposium (Sydney, Australia). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue, No. 75, pp. 123-127. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The Tagus and Sado estuaries discharge in the same coastal region into the Portuguese continental shelf. Several studies focus on the investigation of the complex circulation at the mouth of Tagus or Sado estuaries, however, the interaction between these two systems was never taken into account and were not performed previous studies dedicated to this topic. To study this important issue, numerical modelling is an important tool that allows researching the interaction between plumes under different conditions. Thus, it was developed an implementation of the three-dimensional model Delft3D-Flow integrating Tagus and Sado estuaries and adjacent shelf to investigate the complex interaction between flows. The numerical model was calibrated using sea surface height, salinity and water temperature data, and then applied to research the role of river discharge and wind effects on the plumes interaction. To examine the response of the estuarine plumes to different wind directions, four scenarios of moderate winds were considered blowing from each of the main four compass points. Two markedly different realistic scenarios were chosen: moderate and high Tagus and Sado River discharges. Independently of rivers discharges, the results revealed an intrusion of the Sado plume in Tagus estuary. This intrusion occurred in the bottom layers in all scenarios due to the ambient coastal current, even when the river discharges decreases. The reverse pattern was not observed, demonstrating an unexpected impact of the smaller estuary on the larger.