Nuno Vaz

Short Note: Application of the Mohid-2D model to a mesotidal temperate coastal lagoon

1. IntroductionA mathematical model can be considered as anapproximate reconstruction of a real phenomenon.All parameterizations and approximations used inmodels lead to deviations of the model results fromnature. It is an accepted requirement that anumerical model of estuarine hydrodynamicsshould be verified, calibrated and validated beforeused in a practical application. However, theprocedures to perform these tasks are not widelyaccepted (Cheng et al., 1991). Calibration andvalidation methods appear in several forms, de-pending on data availability, water mass character-istics and researchers’ opinion (Hsu et al., 1999).In this work, the Mohid-2D model implementa-tion for the Ria de Aveiro lagoon is presented,describing its assessment through calibration andvalidation against several different data sets. Due tothe lagoon complex geometry and the large numberof calibration stations used, this goal constitutes avery challenging task.The model is calibrated using as a first approach aqualitative comparison of the temporal evolution ofsea surface elevation (SSE) data measured in 1987/1988 at several locations. When a good match isobtained for all stations, the model’s accuracy isevaluated through the determination of the rootmean square (RMS) error and also through thecomparison between amplitude and phase of themain tidal constituents determined from harmonicanalysis of the observed and computed data. Thevalidation procedure is performed using two in-dependent data sets, which includes observations ofcurrent velocities and SSE values (1997 data) andmeasured water fluxes at the lagoon’s inlet for theperiod of October 2002.2. The study areaRia de Aveiro (Fig. 1) is a shallow mesotidallagoon located in the Northwest coast of Portugalð40 38

Assessment of Wind Pattern Accuracy from the QuikSCAT Satellite and the WRF Model along the Galician Coast (Northwest Iberian Peninsula)

Surface wind along the Galician coast is a key factor allowing the analysis of important oceanographic features that are related to the great primary production in this area, as upwelling events. A comparative analysis between surface winds obtained from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, and in situ observations from buoys along the Galician coast is carried out from November 2008 to October 2009. This comparison evaluates the accuracy of satellite and modeled data. The results show that the wind speeds derived from QuikSCAT and the WRF Model are similar along the coast, with errors ranging from 1.5 to 2 m s 21 . However, QuikSCAT tends to overestimate wind speeds when compared to the buoys measurements. Regarding the wind direction, the RMSE values are about 358 for the stations under analysis. The bias presents a similar pattern between satellite and modeled data, with positive values at the western coast and negative values at the middle and northern coasts, the satellite data always being lower in absolute value than the modeled data. A spatial comparison between QuikSCAT and WRF data is also performed over the whole Galician coast to evaluate the differences between the two datasets. This comparison shows that the modeled wind speed tends to be lower than satellite winds over the entire domain, with the highest RMSE and bias values found for the wind speed and direction observed near the shoreline.

Sea level rise impact in residual circulation in Tagus estuary and Ria de Aveiro lagoon

ABSTRACT Valentim, J.M., Vaz, L., Vaz, N., Silva, H., Duarte, B., Caçador, I. and Dias, J.M., 2013. Sea level rise impact in residual circulation in Tagus estuary and Ria de Aveiro lagoon. Nowadays, there is a special concern about the possible impact of sea level rise in hydrodynamic patterns of coastal systems and its consequence in contingent ecosystems. In the present work, the effects of sea level rise in residual circulation are analyzed in two of the most important Portuguese coastal systems, Ria de Aveiro lagoon and Tagus estuary. The role of rivers inflow on residual circulation is also analyzed under different sea level scenarios. Several projections of river discharges were considered and two scenarios for sea level were adopted: actual and locally predicted sea level rise. The methodology followed comprises the exploitation of previously validated 2D hydrodynamic numerical models (MOHID) developed for both systems. Results indicate that rivers discharge effect cannot be unconsidered in the long term hydrodynamic analysis for both systems, once residual currents intensity could be at least 40% and even 100% higher in maximum inflow than in typical inflow and no discharges scenarios, respectively. In Tagus estuary, the upper bay is the most affected area in a sea level rise scenario, namely in the upper zone (with extensive intertidal areas) where differences in the residual currents intensity can be higher than 100%. In Ria de Aveiro lagoon, differences between actual and sea level rise could be higher than 80%. Narrow and shallow channels are the most affected areas, revealing the significant impact of sea level rise in the intertidal zones. Consequently, the predicted changes in these systems hydrodynamics could influence the long term transport and their actual equilibrium and, as such, affect the natural state of the contingent biological communities.

An investigation on body displacement after two drowning accidents

The finding of human remains in aquatic environments is usually attributed to causes such as work-related or recreational accidents, suicides, discarded homicide victims, and natural disasters. When the point and date of entry in the water is unknown, these findings pose serious challenges to forensic analysis given the difficulty to estimate the drift of the body. In this context, the information retrieved from cases where the point of entry and body recovery sites are known, as well as the timing, is significant. Two drowning accidents in marine coastal waters were analyzed. In both cases the post-mortem submersion interval (PMSI) is known, as well as the accident (point of entry) and body recovery sites. Accumulated degree days (ADD) was estimated in both cases using satellite sea surface temperature data. In both cases the bodies were recovered in the vicinity of the accident site (~2 km in case 1 and less than 1 km in case 2). Results were interpreted in terms of oceanographic conditions, physical settings and ADD. The results provide some relevant clues on the fate of human cadavers in coastal marine environments that can be used by officials and agencies involved in the recovery of bodies, as well as by forensic investigators when dealing with these findings.

Effect of Minho estuarine plume on Rias Baixas: numerical modeling approach

ABSTRACT Sousa, M.C., Vaz, N., Alvarez, I. and Dias, J.M., 2013. Effect of Minho estuarine plume on Rias Baixas: numerical modeling approach. The Minho River, situated 30 km south from the Rias Baixas, is the most important freshwater source flowing into the Western Galician coast. This discharge is particularly important in driving the circulation and hydrography of this coastal region. To study this important issue, numerical modeling may constitute an important tool being used to understand the coastal plume effects under different conditions. The main purpose of this study is to implement and validate a marine model able to reproduce the propagation of the Minho estuarine plume. The chosen period for the validation was the spring of 1998, because a high Minho River discharge was reported as well as favorable wind patterns to spread the river plume towards the Rias Baixas. The numerical model MOHID was used through a downscaling approach with a three-level one-way nested scheme. The numerical predictions show good agreement with the observed water level in the entire domain. Also, the measured components of the velocity are well represented by the model, as well as the observed pycnocline, which is predicted for the observed depth. According to the model results, a buoyancy intrusion caused by the Minho river reverses the normal estuarine salinity longitudinal gradient of the Rias de Vigo and Pontevedra. Otherwise, this pattern is not observed in the Ria de Arousa. All these patterns are corroborated by in situ measurements. In summary, the validation results show that the model adequately reproduces the hydrodynamic and thermohaline patterns of the Western Galician coast.

Salt fluxes in a complex river mouth system of Portugal.

Measurements of velocity and salinity near the mouth and head of the Espinheiro channel (Ria de Aveiro lagoon, Portugal) are used to study the local variation of physical water properties and to assess the balance, under steady conditions, between the seaward salt transport induced by river discharge and the landward dispersion induced by various mixing mechanisms. This assessment is made using data sampled during complete tidal cycles. Under the assumption that the estuarine tidal channel is laterally homogeneous and during moderate tidal periods (except for one survey), currents and salinity data were decomposed into various spatial and temporal means and their deviations. Near the channels mouth, the main contributions to the salt transport are the terms due to freshwater discharge and the tidal correlation. Near the channels head, this last term is less important than the density driven circulation, which is enhanced by the increase in freshwater discharge. The remaining terms, which are dependent on the deviations from the mean depth have a smaller role in the results of salt transport. The computed salt transport per unit width of a section perpendicular to the mean flow is in close agreement to the sum of the advective and dispersive terms (within or very close to 12%). An imbalance of the salt budget across the sections is observed for all the surveys. Considerations are made on how this approach can inform the management of hazardous contamination and how to use these results to best time the release of environmental flows during dry months.

Unusual Circulation Patterns of the Rias Baixas Induced by Minho Freshwater Intrusion (NW of the Iberian Peninsula)

The Minho River, situated 30 km south of the Rias Baixas, is the most important freshwater source flowing into the Western Galician coast (NW of the Iberian Peninsula). The buoyancy generated by the Minho estuarine plume can reverse the normal circulation pattern inside the Rias Baixas affecting the exchange between the Rias and the ocean, changing the input of nutrients. Nevertheless, this inversion of the circulation patterns is not a well-monitored phenomenon. The only published results based on in situ data related to the presence of the Minho River plume inside the Rias de Vigo and Pontevedra correspond to an event measured on spring 1998. In this case unexpectedly higher inflow surface current velocities were found at the Ria de Pontevedra, located further away from Minho River. Thus, the main aim of this study is to research the main factors inducing this unusual pattern on the circulation of the Rias de Vigo and Pontevedra. A numerical model implementation of MOHID previously developed, calibrated, and validated for this coastal area was used. Several scenarios were performed in order to explain the individual effect of the Minho River, rivers discharging into each Rias, and estuarine morphology changes. According to the model results, the Minho River discharge is a key factor in the establishment of the negative circulation, while small rivers inside the Rias slightly attenuate this circulation. The negative circulation was stronger in Ria de Pontevedra independently of the distance of this coastal system from the Minho River mouth, showing that morphologic estuarine features are the main factor justifying the different local circulation patterns.

Storm surge impact in the hydrodynamics of a tidal lagoon: the case of Ria de Aveiro

ABSTRACT Picado, A., Lopes, C.L., Mendes, R., Vaz, N. and Dias, J.M., 2013. Storm surge impact in the hydrodynamics of a tidal lagoon: the case of Ria de Aveiro. Storm surges are a hazardous phenomenon, since they may flood large coastal areas, causing socio-economical and habitation losses. Thus, the study of their characteristics and effects in coastal regions is crucial to prevent their negative consequences. This work aims at assessing the storm surges impact in the hydrodynamics of a tidal lagoon located in the north-western Portuguese coast (Ria de Aveiro). Storm surge amplitudes of 0.58 m, 0.84 m and 1.17 m for 2, 10 and 100 return periods, respectively, were determined adjusting the annual maximum amplitudes to a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. To assess the hydrodynamic changes in the Ria de Aveiro under storm surge conditions, numerical modeling simulations were carried out, considering four scenarios: a single astronomical tidal forcing (reference) and astronomical tide plus 2, 10 and 100 years return period surges. Maximum levels and velocities for the entire lagoon and the tidal prism for the main cross-sections were determined and compared with the reference scenario. Generally, the model results suggest that during storm surge events the maximum levels increase in whole domain, with the largest increase found for the 100 return period storm surge scenario (1.17 m). The most significant changes occur at the main channels head for all scenarios, revealing that these regions are the most vulnerable to marginal flooding. Also, storm surges induce higher velocities and tidal prisms in the lagoon, increasing the marginal risk of erosion, as well as the salinization of the lagoon marginal lands.

Residual currents and transport pathways in the Tagus estuary, Portugal: the role of freshwater discharge and wind

ABSTRACT Vaz, N.,Dias, J.M., 2014. Residual currents and transport pathways in the Tagus estuary, Portugal: the role of freshwater discharge and wind. In: Green, A.N. and Cooper, J.A.G. (eds.), Proceedings 13th International Coastal Symposium (Durban, South Africa), Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 70, pp. 610–615, ISSN 0749-0208. Estuaries are interface areas between rivers and the coastal sea. They also receive point discharges of contaminants which can affect estuarine biogeochemistry. The study of residual circulation in estuaries is a key issue since it is related to the transport and dispersal of dissolved and non-dissolved substances. This study investigates the residual flows in a coastal plain estuary (the Tagus estuary, Portugal) taking into account the major forcing factors: tide, river discharge and wind stress. The methodology used is the implementation of a high resolution estuarine model in a 2D mode to simulate the tidal dynamics of the estuary. Tidal flows were calculated by tidally-averaging the flow currents along the whole estuary. The complex bathymetry of the estuary, tides, river discharge and wind stress modulate the residual flow in the Tagus estuary. The combine effect of the tide and river discharge creates preferential corridor flows in the deeper areas of the estuary. On the other hand, wind intensity and direction generate changes in residual currents in the shallow areas near the south shore of the estuary. River runoff changes the residual current intensity from values higher than 0.3 ms−1 (high discharge) to values of about 0.05 ms−1 (low discharge). The wind direction also induces changes in the residual flow patterns, inducing a rotation of the residual flow, according to the wind direction. Thus, the estuarine model of the Tagus estuary is a tool that sheds new insight about its fundamental hydrodynamics processes and consequently about the long term circulation patterns.

Chlorophyll concentration along the northwestern coast of the Iberian Peninsula vs. atmosphere-ocean-land conditions

ABSTRACT Picado, A., Alvarez, I., Vaz, N., and Dias, J.M., 2013. Chlorophyll concentration along the northwestern coast of the Iberian Peninsula vs. atmosphere-ocean-land conditions. The aim of this work is to investigate the relationship between the atmosphere-ocean-land conditions and chlorophyll a (Chl-a) formation along the northwestern coast of the Iberian Peninsula. Spatial and temporal distribution of Chl-a concentration, sea surface temperature, surface winds and rivers discharge were analyzed from 1998 to 2007, using remote sensing data. Generally, the Chl-a concentrations are higher near the coast showing a seasonal variability. In fact, along the coast there are higher Chl-a concentrations during the dry season (April to September) which can be associated to the upwelling favorable conditions (southward winds). These favorable conditions are related to the presence of cold nutrient-rich water which upwells towards the surface layers enhancing the primary production. During winter months, the wind pattern is usually upwelling unfavorable (northward winds); however high Chl-a concentration also occurs near the coast. These high values could be related to the inland nutrients input through rivers discharge and winter upwelling events. Afterwards, correlation coefficients were computed between Chl-a and upwelling index, SST and rivers discharges. Between June to September chlorophyll and upwelling index are positively correlated, increasing southward (0.58 to the south of the study area). During winter, the correlation coefficient between chlorophyll and rivers discharge is 0.75 in the northern region of the study area. Therefore, during summer months the chlorophyll variations could be explained mainly by the frequent upwelling events, whereas during winter months, high chlorophyll concentration near coast depends on rivers discharges.