M.E. Lapierre

Relationship between progression-free survival and overall survival in chronic lymphocytic leukemia: a literature-based analysis.

BACKGROUND The endpoints of progression-free survival (pfs) and time-to-progression (ttp) are frequently used to evaluate the clinical benefit of anticancer drugs. However, the surrogacy of those endpoints for overall survival (os) is not validated in all cancer settings. In the present study, we used a trial-based approach to assess the relationship between median pfs or ttp and median os in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (cll). METHODS The pico (population, interventions, comparators, outcomes) method was used to conduct a systematic review of the literature. The population consisted of patients with cll; the interventions and comparators were standard therapies for cll; and the outcomes were median pfs, ttp, and os. Two independent reviewers screened titles, abstracts, and full papers for eligibility and then extracted data from selected studies. Correlation coefficients were calculated to assess the relationship between median pfs or ttp and median os. Subgroup correlation analyses were also conducted according to the characteristics of the selected studies (such as line of treatment and type of treatment under investigation). RESULTS Of the 1263 potentially relevant articles identified during the literature search, twenty-three were included. On average, median pfs or ttp was 16.0 months (standard deviation: 12.4 months) and median os was 43.5 months (standard deviation: 31.2 months). Results of the correlation analysis indicated that median pfs or ttp is highly correlated with median os (Spearman correlation coefficient: 0.813; p ≤ 0.001). A significant correlation between median pfs or ttp and median os was observed in second- and subsequent-line therapies, but not in the first-line setting. CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrates a strong correlation between median pfs or ttp and median os in previously treated cll, which reinforce the hypothesis that pfs and ttp could be adequate surrogate endpoints for os in this cancer setting.

Progression-free survival as a potential surrogate for overall survival in metastatic breast cancer

Background Progression-free survival (PFS) and time to progression (TTP) are frequently used to establish the clinical efficacy of anti-cancer drugs. However, the surrogacy of PFS/TTP for overall survival (OS) remains a matter of uncertainty in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). This study assessed the relationship between PFS/TTP and OS in mBC using a trial-based approach. Methods We conducted a systematic literature review according to the PICO method: ‘Population’ consisted of women with mBC; ‘Interventions’ and ‘Comparators’ were standard treatments for mBC or best supportive care; ‘Outcomes’ of interest were median PFS/TTP and OS. We first performed a correlation analysis between median PFS/TTP and OS, and then conducted subgroup analyses to explore possible reasons for heterogeneity. Then, we assessed the relationship between the treatment effect on PFS/TTP and OS. The treatment effect on PFS/TTP and OS was quantified by the absolute difference of median values. We also conducted linear regression analysis to predict the effects of a new anti-cancer drug on OS on the basis of its effects on PFS/TTP. Results A total of 5,041 studies were identified, and 144 fulfilled the eligibility criteria. There was a statistically significant relationship between median PFS/TTP and OS across included trials (r=0.428; P<0.01). Correlation coefficient for the treatment effect on PFS/TTP and OS was estimated at 0.427 (P<0.01). The obtained linear regression equation was ΔOS =−0.088 (95% confidence interval [CI] −1.347–1.172) + 1.753 (95% CI 1.307–2.198) × ΔPFS (R2=0.86). Conclusion Results of this study indicate a significant association between PFS/TTP and OS in mBC, which may justify the use of PFS/TTP in the approval for commercialization and reimbursement of new anti-cancer drugs in this cancer setting.