M. F. Magalhães

Geostatistical distribution modelling of two invasive crayfish across dendritic stream networks

Species distribution models combining environmental and spatial components are increasingly used to understand and forecast species invasions. However, modelling distributions of invasive species inhabiting stream networks requires due consideration of their dendritic spatial structure, which may strongly constrain dispersal and colonization pathways. Here we evaluate the application of novel geostatistical tools to species distribution modelling in dendritic networks, using as case study two invasive crayfish (Procambarus clarkii and Pacifastacus leniusculus) in a Mediterranean watershed. Specifically, we used logistic mixed models to relate the probability of occurrence of each crayfish to environmental variables, while specifying three spatial autocorrelation components in random errors. These components described spatial dependencies between sites as a function of (1) straight-line distances (Euclidean model) between sites, (2) hydrologic (along the waterlines) distances between flow-connected sites (tail-up model), and (3) hydrologic distances irrespective of flow connection (tail-down model). We found a positive effect of stream order on P. clarkii, indicating an association with the lower and mid reaches of larger streams, while P. leniusculus was affected by an interaction between stream order and elevation, indicating an association with larger streams at higher altitude. For both species, models including environmental and spatial components far outperformed the pure environmental models, with the tail-up and the Euclidean components being the most important for P. clarkii and P. leniusculus, respectively. Overall, our study highlighted the value of geostatistical tools to model the distribution of riverine and aquatic invasive species, and stress the need to specify spatial dependencies representing the dendritic network structure of stream ecosystems.

Modeling stream fish distributions using interval-censored detection times.

Abstract Controlling for imperfect detection is important for developing species distribution models (SDMs). Occupancy‐detection models based on the time needed to detect a species can be used to address this problem, but this is hindered when times to detection are not known precisely. Here, we extend the time‐to‐detection model to deal with detections recorded in time intervals and illustrate the method using a case study on stream fish distribution modeling. We collected electrofishing samples of six fish species across a Mediterranean watershed in Northeast Portugal. Based on a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we modeled the probability of water presence in stream channels, and the probability of species occupancy conditional on water presence, in relation to environmental and spatial variables. We also modeled time‐to‐first detection conditional on occupancy in relation to local factors, using modified interval‐censored exponential survival models. Posterior distributions of occupancy probabilities derived from the models were used to produce species distribution maps. Simulations indicated that the modified time‐to‐detection model provided unbiased parameter estimates despite interval‐censoring. There was a tendency for spatial variation in detection rates to be primarily influenced by depth and, to a lesser extent, stream width. Species occupancies were consistently affected by stream order, elevation, and annual precipitation. Bayesian P‐values and AUCs indicated that all models had adequate fit and high discrimination ability, respectively. Mapping of predicted occupancy probabilities showed widespread distribution by most species, but uncertainty was generally higher in tributaries and upper reaches. The interval‐censored time‐to‐detection model provides a practical solution to model occupancy‐detection when detections are recorded in time intervals. This modeling framework is useful for developing SDMs while controlling for variation in detection rates, as it uses simple data that can be readily collected by field ecologists.

Reproductive dynamics shapes genomotype composition in an allopolyploid complex.

Hybrid complexes are composed of organisms with multiple combinations of parental genomes (genomotypes) that interconnect through nets of crosses. Although several such complexes are well established without speciation or extinction, mechanisms shaping their dynamics remain poorly understood. In this study, we quantified the reproductive success of the allopolyploid Iberian fish Squalius alburnoides in experimental free-access and directional crosses involving the most common genomotypes. Specifically, we analysed the paternity of the offspring produced when females had free access to male genomotypes and quantified variations in egg allocation, fertilization rate, and offspring survival among crosses involving each male genomotype. The composition of the offspring produced from free-access crosses varied significantly from that expected from random mating, suggesting that offspring production and viability are not independent of parental male genomotype. Moreover, directional crosses producing the genomotype most commonly found in wild populations appeared to be the most successful, with females laying more eggs, and fertilization rate and offspring survival being the highest. These results suggest that reproductive dynamics plays a relevant role in structuring the genomotype composition of populations and opens a path to future research on the ecology and evolutionary biology of allopolyploids and their multiplicity of possible evolutionary pathways.

The Biota of Intermittent Rivers and Ephemeral Streams: Fishes

Despite their often temporary nature, intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams (IRES) provide important habitat, resource advantages, and nurseries for a range of fish species throughout the world. Fishes have adapted to the variable nature of these environments. A small subset of species using IRES has evolved specific traits such as air-breathing that make living in extreme habitats possible, but the majority relies on opportunistic dispersal to colonize such areas. Fish existence in IRES is precarious but when conditions are favorable, fishes play major roles in ecosystem functioning (e.g., trophic links in food webs). Habitat fragmentation of IRES by water extraction, river regulation, and climate change is the biggest threat to their ecological integrity and has major implications for the distribution and abundance of fishes in IRES.