M. V. Eselevich

Forecasting the Velocity of Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind and the Intensity of Geomagnetic Disturbances Produced by It

A brief review is given of contemporary approaches to solving the problem of medium-term forecast of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind (SW) and of the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by it. At the present time, two promising models of calculating the velocity of quasi-stationary SW at the Earth’s orbit are realized. One model is the semi-empirical model of Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) which allows one to calculate the dependence V(t) of SW velocity at the Earth’s orbit using measured values of the photospheric magnetic field. This model is based on calculation of the local divergence fS of magnetic field lines. The second model is semi-empirical model by Eselevich-Fainshtein-Rudenko (EFR). It is based on calculation in a potential approximation of the area of foot points on the solar surface of open magnetic tubes (sources of fast quasistationary SW). The new Bd-technology is used in these calculations, allowing one to calculate instantaneous distributions of the magnetic field above the entire visible surface of the Sun. Using predicted V(t) profiles, one can in EFR model calculate also the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by quasi-stationary SW. This intensity is expressed through the Kp index. In this paper the EFR model is discussed in detail. Some examples of epignosis and real forecast of V(t) and Kp(t) are discussed. A comparison of the results of applying these two models for the SW velocity forecasting is presented.

On the formation mechanism of the sporadic solar wind

In this paper, we examine the nature of the main source of the sporadic solar wind on the Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Analysis of data from Mark 3 and Mark 4, the Digital Prominence Monitor (MLSO), and STEREO (EUVI) spacecraft has revealed the existence of two types of CMEs: gradual and impulse. They differ in the place, velocity, and angular size at the instant of their emergence. The source of gradual CMEs is located in the corona, at a distance of 1.1 R0 < R ≤ 1.7 R0 from the center of the Sun. They start moving from a state of rest, having an angular size ≈15–65° (in the heliographic coordinate system). Impulse CMEs are probably formed under the Sun’s photosphere. This may be due to the supersonic emergence of magnetic tubes (ropes) from the convective zone. The possibility of this phenomenon has been demonstrated earlier in theory. The radial velocity of such tubes at the photospheric level may be 100 km/s or higher; the minimum angular size is ∼1°.

Manifestations of the ray structure of the coronal streamer belt in the form of sharp peaks of the solar wind plasma density in the Earth’s orbit

White corona images are analyzed based on the calibrated data of the LASCO-C2/SOHO instrument (processing level 1) and the solar wind (SW) parameters with hourly and minute resolutions on the Wind spacecraft. The quasistationary events, excluding coronal mass ejections and their manifestations in SW are studied. It has been indicated that the angular dimensions and relative variations in the density of the streamer belt segments remain almost unchanged over the entire distance from the Sun to the Earth’s orbit. In the Earth’s orbit, the ray structure of the belt streamer manifests itself as sharp (with steep fronts lasting several minutes and less) peaks (of several hours in duration) of the solar wind plasma density with maximal values Nmax > 10 cm−3.

Fine structure of the interplanetary shock front according to measurements of the ion flux of the solar wind with high time resolution

According to the data of the BMSW/SPEKTR-R instrument, which measured the density and velocity of solar wind plasma with a record time resolution, up to ~3 ×10–2 s, the structure of the front of interplanetary shocks has been investigated. The results of these first investigations were compared with the results of studying the structure of the bow shocks obtained in previous years. A comparison has shown that the quasi-stationary (averaged over the rapid oscillations) distribution of plasma behind the interplanetary shock front was significantly more inhomogeneous than that behind the bow-shock front, i.e., in the magnetosheath. It has also been shown that, to determine the size of internal structures of the fronts of quasi-perpendicular (θBN > 45°) shocks, one could use the magnetic field magnitude, the proton density, and the proton flux of the solar wind on almost equal terms. A comparison of low Mach (МА < 2), low beta (β1 < 1) fronts of interplanetary and bow shocks has shown that the dispersion of oblique magnetosonic waves plays an essential role in their formation.

Comment on the paper “CAWSES November 7–8, 2004, Superstorm: Complex Solar and Interplanetary Features in the Post-Solar Maximum Phase,” B. T. Tsurutani, E. Echer, F. L. Guarnieri, and J. U. Kozyra, Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 (2008)

The solar sources of the magnetic storms of November 8 and 10, 2004, are analyzed. The preliminary results of such an analysis [Yermolaev et al., 2005] are critically compared with the results of the paper [Tsurutani et al., 2008], where solar flares were put in correspondence with these magnetic storms. The method for determining solar sources that cause powerful magnetospheric storms is analyzed. It has been indicated that an optimal approach consists in considering coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as storm sources and accompanying flares as additional information about the location of CME origination.

Evidence for shock generation in the solar corona in the absence of coronal mass ejections

The solar event SOL2012–10–23T03:13, which was associated with a X1.8 flare without an accompanying coronal mass ejection (CME) and with a Type II radio burst, is analyzed. A method for constructing the spatial and temporal profiles of the difference brightness detected in the AIA/SDOUVand EUV channels is used together with the analysis of the Type II radio burst. The formation and propagation of a region of compression preceded by a collisional shock detected at distances R < 1.3R⊙ from the center of the Sun is observed in this event (R⊙ is the solar radius). Comparison with a similar event studied earlier, SOL2011–02–28T07:34 [1], suggests that the region of compression and shock could be due to a transient (impulsive) action exerted on the surrounding plasma by an eruptive, high-temperature magnetic rope. The initial instability and eruption of this rope could be initiated by emerging magnetic flux, and its heating from magnetic reconnection. The cessation of the eruption of the rope could result from its interaction with surrounding magnetic structures (coronal loops).

Results of tracking a spacecraft in the vicinity of the L2 libration point of the Sun–Earth system

The launch of the Spektrum-Roentgen-Gamma (SRG) international orbiting astrophysical observatory is planned for the near future. It is planned tomaneuver SRGinto the vicinity of the L2 libration point of the Sun–Earth system, where it will be kept in a quasi-stable orbit. The spacecraft orbit must be maintained in order to carry out the scientific program of the project, which requires obtaining information about the current parameters of its motion. With the aim of developing methods for making optical measurements and estimating the required volume of measurement data and their accuracy, observations of the Gaia spacecraft, which is located in the vicinity of L2, were made at the Sayan Observatory in 2014–2015. The results of observations of the Gaia spacecraft on the 1.6-m infrared telescope of the Sayan Observatory are presented. The measured brightness of the spacecraft was 20.7–22m, which is close to the limiting magnitude of the telescope. The accuracy of these astrometric measurements was about one arcsecond. Possibilities for obtaining accurate astrometric data for the SRG spacecraft in orbit in the vicinity of L2 are discussed, as well as the required observing conditions and the volume of measurement data required for adequate prediction of the spacecraft motion.

Initial formation of an “impulsive” coronal mass ejection

An “impulsive” coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on August 24, 2014 is analyzed using ultraviolet images obtained in the SDO/AIA 193, 304, 1600, and 1700 Å channels and Hα (6562.8 Å) data obtained with the EI Teide and Big Bear telescopes. The formation of this impulsive CME was related to a magnetic tube (rope) moving with a velocity of ≈35 km/s and containing plasma that was cooler than the photospheric material. Moving in the corona, the magnetic tube collides with a quasi-stationary coronal magnetic rope, with its two bases rooted in the photosphere. This interaction results in the formation of the CME, with the surface of the coronal magnetic rope becoming the CME frontal structure. According to SDO/HMI data, no enhancements or changes in magnetic flux were detected in the vicinity of the CME bases during its formation. This may support the hypothesis that the magnetic tube starts its motion from layers in the vicinity of the temperature minimum.

Abrupt changes of density in sporadic solar wind and their effect on Earth magnetosphere

In a magnetic cloud, which is part of a sporadic solar wind on the Earth orbit, against the background of a constant solar wind velocity, abrupt jumps in the solar wind density and antiphase, highly correlated (correlation coefficient R∼−0.9) variations of the magnitude of the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field were detected. Analysis has shown that these jumps, which represent fibers or eruptive protuberances, result, when interacting with the Earth magnetosphere, in the development of a high-latitude magnetic disturbance, starting on the dayside and propagating into the morning and evening sides of the magnetosphere. The processes, developing in the auroral region during this disturbance, are similar to processes occurring during the substorm, but they are characterized by a shorter duration and lower value of released energy.

Streamer belt in the solar corona and the Earth’s orbit

It has been indicated that the cross section of the streamer belt in the solar corona and its extension in the heliosphere—heliospheric plasma sheet (HPS)—have the form of two radially oriented closely located (at a distance of d ≈ 2.0–2.5° in the heliocentric coordinate system) rays with increased and generally different densities. The angular dimensions of the rays are ≈d. The neutral line of the magnetic field in the corona and the related sector boundary in the Earth’s orbit are located between the peaks of densities of these two rays. In the events, during which the true sector boundary coincides with the heliospheric current sheet, the transverse structure of the streamer belt in the heliosphere (or the HPS structure) is quasistationary; i.e., this structure slightly changes when the solar wind moves from the Sun to the Earth in, at least, 50% of cases. A hypothesis that a slow solar wind, flowing in the rays with increased density of the streamer belt, is probably generated on the Sun’s surface rather than at the top of the helmet, as was assumed in [Wang et al., 2000], is put forward.