M. van der Wegen

Long‐term morphodynamic evolution of a tidal embayment using a two‐dimensional, process‐based model

[1] The research objective is to investigate long-term evolution of estuarine morphodynamics with special emphasis on the impact of pattern formation. Use is made of a two-dimensional (2-D), numerical, process-based model. The standard model configuration is a rectangular 80 km long and 2.5 km wide basin. Equilibrium conditions of the longitudinal profile are analyzed using the model in 1-D mode after 8000 years. Two-dimensional model results show two distinct timescales. The first timescale is related to pattern formation taking place within the first decades and followed by minor adaptation according to the second timescale of continuous deepening of the longitudinal profile during 1600 years. The resulting longitudinal profiles of the 1-D and 2-D runs are similar apart from small deviations near the mouth. The 2-D results correspond well to empirically derived relationships between the tidal prism and the channel cross section and between the tidal prism and the channel volume. Also, comparison between the current model results and data from the Western Scheldt estuary (in terms of bar length, hypsometry, percentage of intertidal area and values for the ratio of shoal volume and channel volume against the ratio of tidal amplitude and water depth) shows satisfying agreement. On the basis of the model results a relationship for a characteristic morphological wavelength was derived on the basis of the tidal excursion and the basin width and an exponentially varying function was suggested for describing a dimensionless hypsometric curve for the basin. Furthermore, special attention is given to an analysis of the numerical morphodynamic update scheme applied.

Long-term morphodynamic evolution and energy dissipation in a coastal plain, tidal embayment

The morphodynamic system in alluvial, coastal plain estuaries is complex and characterized by various timescales and spatial scales. The current research aims to investigate the interaction between these different scales as well as the estuarine morphodynamic evolution. Use is made of a process-based, numerical model describing 2-D shallow water equations and a straightforward formulation of the sediment transport and the bed level update. This was done for an embayment with a length of 80 km on a timescale of 3200 years, with and without bank erosion effects. Special emphasis is put on analyzing the results in terms of energy dissipation. Model results show that the basins under consideration evolve toward a state of less morphodynamic activity, which is reflected by (among others) relatively stable morphologic patterns and decreasing deepening and widening of the basins. Closer analysis of the tidal wave shows standing wave behavior with resonant characteristics. Under these conditions, results suggest that the basins aim for a balance between the effect of storage and the effect of fluctuating water level on wave celerity with a negligible effect of friction. Evaluating the model results in terms of energy dissipation reflects the major processes and their timescales (pattern formation, widening, and deepening). On the longer term the basin-wide energy dissipation decreases at a decreasingly lower rate and becomes more uniformly distributed along the basin. Analysis by an entropy-based approach suggests that the forced geometry of the configurations prevents the basins from evolving toward a most probable state.

Process-based, morphodynamic hindcast of decadal deposition patterns in San Pablo Bay, California, 1856–1887

[1]xa0This study investigates the possibility of hindcasting-observed decadal-scale morphologic change in San Pablo Bay, a subembayment of the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, by means of a 3-D numerical model (Delft3D). The hindcast period, 1856–1887, is characterized by upstream hydraulic mining that resulted in a high sediment input to the estuary. The model includes wind waves, salt water and fresh water interactions, and graded sediment transport, among others. Simplified initial conditions and hydrodynamic forcing were necessary because detailed historic descriptions were lacking. Model results show significant skill. The river discharge and sediment concentration have a strong positive influence on deposition volumes. Waves decrease deposition rates and have, together with tidal movement, the greatest effect on sediment distribution within San Pablo Bay. The applied process-based (or reductionist) modeling approach is valuable once reasonable values for model parameters and hydrodynamic forcing are obtained. Sensitivity analysis reveals the dominant forcing of the system and suggests that the model planform plays a dominant role in the morphodynamic development. A detailed physical explanation of the model outcomes is difficult because of the high nonlinearity of the processes. Process formulation refinement, a more detailed description of the forcing, or further model parameter variations may lead to an enhanced model performance, albeit to a limited extent. The approach potentially provides a sound basis for prediction of future developments. Parallel use of highly schematized box models and a process-based approach as described in the present work is probably the most valuable method to assess decadal morphodynamic development.

The role of river flow and tidal asymmetry on 1‐D estuarine morphodynamics

Numerous research efforts have been devoted to understanding estuarine morphodynamics under tidal forcing. However, the impact of river discharge on estuarine morphodynamics is insufficiently examined. Inspired by the Yangtze Estuary, this work explores the morphodynamic impact of river discharge in a 560 km long tidal basin based on a 1-D model (Delft3D). The model considers total load sediment transport and employs a morphodynamic updating scheme to achieve long-term morphodynamic evolution. We analyze the role of Stokes drift, tidal asymmetry, and river discharge in generating tidal residual sediment transport. Model results suggest that morphodynamic equilibrium is approached within millennia by vanishing spatial gradients of tidal residual sediment transport. We find that the interaction between ebb-directed Stokes return flow/river flow with tides is an important mechanism that flushes river-supplied sediment seaward. Increasing river discharge does not induce continuously eroded or accreted equilibrium bed profiles because of the balance between riverine sediment supply and sediment flushing to the sea. An intermediate threshold river discharge can be defined which leads to a deepest equilibrium bed profile. As a result, the shape (concavity or convexity) of the equilibrium bed profiles will adapt with the magnitude of river discharge. Overall, this study reveals the significant role of river discharge in controlling estuarine morphodynamics by supplying sediment and reinforcing ebb-directed residual sediment transport.

Processes governing decadal-scale depositional narrowing of the major tidal channel in San Pablo Bay, California, USA

Bathymetric measurements show that a deep, subtidal channel in San Pablo Bay, California, has consistently narrowed during the past 150u2009years. This raises general questions on the seasonal and intertidal morphodynamic processes acting at the subtidal channel-shoal interface. The current work addresses these questions using a process-based morphodynamic model (Delft3D). Model results reveal considerable morphodynamic activity during a tidal cycle. Deposition on the channel margin is largest during flooding of the shoals. Erosion rates (mainly occuring during ebb) remain relatively small, so that net accretion occurs on much of the channel margin. A remarkable finding is that locally generated wind waves are responsible for shoal extension and depositional channel narrowing. High suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the channel is a critical factor. Apart from sediment supply during high river flow, wind waves suspending sediment on the shoals cause high SSC levels in the channel at ebb. Sensitivity analysis shows that wind direction even determines the location of channel margin accretion. Fluvial sediment supply is another cause of high SSC in the channel. Density currents, 3-D circulation flows, sea level rise, or varied sediment characteristics only have a limited effect on the erosion and sedimentation patterns. A 30u2009year forecast shows that deeper shoals and decreasing fluvial sediment supply lower SSC levels in the channel, limit channel margin accretion, and even lead to net channel margin erosion in some areas. Channel shape thus remains subject to dynamic processes related to local variations in sediment supply, albeit to a more limited extent than in earlier decades.

Estuarine channel evolution in response to closure of secondary basins: An observational and morphodynamic modeling study of the Western Scheldt Estuary: Effects of secondary basins on channels

The fringes of estuaries are often characterized by the presence of side embayments (secondary basins), with dimensions in the order of hundreds of meters to tens of kilometers. The presence of secondary basins significantly alters the hydrodynamic and sediment characteristics in the main estuary, implying that loss of secondary basin area due to human interventions might affect the estuarine morphodynamics. Analysis of historical bathymetric data of the Western Scheldt Estuary (Netherlands) suggests that closure of its secondary basins has triggered the observed lateral displacement of the nearby channels. This analysis motivated investigation of the impact of secondary basins on decadal evolution of estuarine channels, using the numerical model Delft3D. Model results show that channels that form near a secondary basin are located farther away from the bank of the estuary with respect to their positions in the case without a basin. Overall, results in cases with two or three basins are similar to those in case with one single basin. The wider the basin, the farther away the nearby channel forms. Removing a secondary basin causes a lateral displacement of the nearby channel toward the bank, indicating that the observed lateral displacement of channels in the Western Scheldt is triggered by closure of its secondary basins. The physical explanation is that tidal currents in the main estuary are weaker and more rotary near secondary basins, favoring sediment deposition and shoal development at these locations. Model results are particularly relevant for estuaries with moderate to high friction and converging width.

Do salt marshes survive sea level rise? Modelling wave action, morphodynamics and vegetation dynamics

Abstract This paper aims to fundamentally assess the resilience of salt marsh-mudflat systems under sea level rise. We applied an open-source schematized 2D area model (Delft3D) that couples intertidal flow, wave-action, sediment transport, geomorphological development with a population dynamics approach including temporal and spatial growth of vegetation and bio-accumulation. Wave-action maintains a high sediment concentration on the mudflat while the tidal motion transports the sediments within the vegetated marsh areas during flood. The marsh-mudflat system attained dynamic equilibrium within 120 years. Sediment deposition and bio-accumulation within the marsh make the system initially resilient to sea level rise scenarios. However, after 50–60 years the marsh system starts to drown with vegetated-levees being the last surviving features. Biomass accumulation and sediment supply are critical determinants for the marsh drowning rate and survival. Our model methodology can be applied to assess the resilience of vegetated coast lines and combined engineering solutions for long-term sustainability.