Madhav Joshi

Introducing the Peace Accords Matrix (PAM): a database of comprehensive peace agreements and their implementation, 1989–2007

This article presents the Peace Accords Matrix (PAM), a database of comprehensive peace agreements and their implementation, covering the years between 1989 and 2007. PAM identifies more than 51 elements that have appeared in peace agreements and collects data that can be used to analyse and compare peace accords. The matrix also monitors the extent to which the agreements have been implemented. Because of these capabilities, PAM is ideal for researchers who want to examine aspects of peace agreements and the implementation of particular provisions, which either help or hinder peace processes in post-accord periods. PAM is also useful for facilitators and mediators who are engaged in the peace process, both prior to and after an agreement is signed, as it provides information on how other countries have previously attempted peace processes. PAM data can be a very useful tool to design better peace accords and to ensure the implementation of accords.

Between Democracy and Revolution: Peasant Support for Insurgency versus Democracy in Nepal

The Maoist insurgency in Nepal presents an anomaly for students of civil war and democratic transitions. How was the Maoist wing of the Nepal Communist Party able to mobilize peasants to support their insurgency when they could not mobilize enough peasants to vote for them in elections? The authors address these questions by exploring the ways in which the persistence of traditional clientelist networks in the countryside enabled rural elites to mobilize peasants to vote for parties other than the Maoist party, even though peasants would have benefited from that partys advocacy for land reform. When that same party used insurgent violence against rural elites, peasants were willing and able to support the insurgency and abstain from voting in the 1999 election in locales where the insurgency succeeded in disrupting clientelist ties. The authors test these arguments with district-level data on election turnout and the distribution of households among several land-tenure categories. Findings support the argument that turnout was greater where land-tenure patterns gave landed elite greater influence over peasant political behavior. Where higher levels of insurgent violence disrupted patterns of clientelist dependency, turnout declined. What electoral democracy could not deliver to peasants — land reform and relief from clientelist dependency — the Maoist insurgency promised to bring through political violence.

Just How Liberal Is the Liberal Peace

This article assesses the extent to which the liberal peace (the dominant form of internationally supported peacemaking) actually deserves the sobriquet ‘liberal peace’. In recent years, an intense debate emerged on this question as critics of the critique of the liberal peace have sought to downplay the dominance of the liberal peace. These debates are interesting but they are mainly based on qualitative analysis supplemented with some case study material, and often rely on assertions rather than evidence. This article seeks to add to this debate with simple aggregate data from the Peace Accords Matrix that is comprehensive and comparative. The article constructs a five-part framework to analyse the liberal elements of peace accords liberalism and then tracks the extent to which the elements of the framework are found in peace accords. Through this examination, it is found that the liberal peace is indeed the dominant form of peace-support intervention, although there are considerable variations in the extent and implementation of the liberalism in peacebuilding.

Post-civil war democratization: promotion of democracy in post-civil war states, 1946–2005

Post-civil war democratization is a critical element of building sustainable peace in post-civil war states. Yet studies of democratic transition and survival suggest that the post-civil war environment is not hospitable to either the transition toward or the survival of democracy. This inhospitality may be due to the fact that post-civil war environments are contentious. After a civil war, the former protagonists fear for their security and also want to protect their political and economic interests. The central argument of this study is that former rivals can agree to a transition toward democracy to the extent that a stable balance of power exists between the government and rebel groups; a balance that eliminates the sort of security dilemma that would encourage one or both parties to resume armed conflict. Such a balance should ensure access to political power and economic resources. This study identifies factors that contribute to the establishment of a balance of power between former protagonists and factors that affect its stability. The presence of these factors should affect the decision of former protagonists on whether or not they can achieve their political and economic interests if they agree to a transition toward democracy once the civil war ends. Based on this theoretical argument, I have derived empirically testable hypotheses. In the survival analysis performed, I find support for the theoretical arguments. The findings of this study have some policy implications.

Annualized implementation data on comprehensive intrastate peace accords, 1989–2012

This article introduces the Peace Accords Matrix Implementation Dataset (PAM_ID). We present time-series data on the implementation of 51 provisions in 34 comprehensive peace agreements negotiated in civil wars since 1989. We follow the implementation process for up to ten years following the signing of each agreement. The data provide new insights into the types of provisions that are more or less likely to be implemented, how implementation processes unfold over time, how implementation processes relate to one another, and how implementation affects various post-accord outcomes. We outline our coding methodology and case selection, and examine descriptive statistics. We illustrate one potential use of the data by combining eight different provisions into a composite indicator of security sector reform (SSR). A survival analysis finds that implementing security sector reforms contributes to long-term conflict reduction not only between the parties to the accord but also between the government and other non-signatory groups in the same conflict.

Inclusive institutions and stability of transition toward democracy in post-civil war states

This article attempts to bring together research on democratization and democratic consolidation with research on civil war termination. The post-civil war environment is contentious and the transition toward democracy achieved after a civil war is susceptible to failure. The side that wins the democratic elections in a post-war state may use its democratically won power to dismantle the institutions of democracy and repress the opposition. The fear of constant marginalization in the political processes as well as the fear of being repressed might create incentives for the defeated party to return to civil war. By utilizing the expected utility framework, this article suggests that former rivals would support democratic transition if they were confident that inclusive institutions ensured that they could achieve their political interests through the democratic processes. After analysing the data on post-civil war transitions toward democracy (TTD) from 1946–2005, I found that the proportional representation system and the parliamentary system are the most important institutions that help sustain the post-civil war TTD.

Implementing the Peace: The Aggregate Implementation of Comprehensive Peace Agreements and Peace Duration after Intrastate Armed Conflict

The signing of a comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) is often seen as a historic milestone in a peace process, and its implementation takes a highly legitimized set of reforms and puts it front and center in national politics. This article examines the aggregate implementation of CPAs signed since 1989 and future conflict behavior between the negotiating parties and between the government and non-signatory groups. It argues that implementation is both a peace-building process and an outcome that normalizes political relations between hostile groups, solves commitment problems and addresses the root causes of civil conflict. Statistical tests utilizing new data on the implementation of CPAs support the argument. The extent to which an agreement is implemented is shown to have significant long-term effects on how long peace lasts – an effect that applies not only to the signatories of the agreement, but also to the government and non-signatory groups.

Sequencing the Peace How the Order of Peace Agreement Implementation Can Reduce the Destabilizing Effects of Post-accord Elections

Once a set of civil war actors reach a final peace agreement, a number of different implementation sequences are possible as the negotiated provisions are put into practice. We focus on a key but threatening stepping stone in the post-accord period—the holding of the first post-accord election—which has the capacity to be a stabilizing or destabilizing force. We identify effective accommodation provisions that civil war actors can negotiate and implement before the first post-accord election to reduce the chances of renewed violence. Utilizing new longitudinal data on the implementation of comprehensive peace agreements between 1989 and 2012 and a series of survival models, we find that if the first post-accord election is preceded by the implementation of accommodation measures, elections can have a peace-promoting effect. However, in the absence of preelection accommodation measures, elections are much more likely to be followed by peace failure.

Comprehensive peace agreement implementation and reduction in neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality rates in post-armed conflict states, 1989–2012

BackgroundPrevious studies suggest that countries with a higher child mortality rate are more susceptible to armed conflict onset as well as recurrence. Studies do not explain conditions under which child mortality declines among post-armed conflict states. This article argues that where armed conflict is terminated through negotiation and implementation of comprehensive peace agreements (CPAs), the child mortality rate declines. This is due to the implementation of provisions in CPAs, which addresses underlying grievances of the poor, underserved and marginalized segments of the population, as well as the successful reconstruction of the health sector. CPA implementation resolves hostilities between armed rivals and facilitates the return process for internally displaced persons and refugees. The CPA implementation may also encourage the return of aid workers and health professionals to conflict-affected zones.MethodThis study utilizes new data on CPA implementation and examines neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality rates among 73 post-armed conflict countries between 1989 and 2012. Multivariate cross-sectional time series correlation (fixed effect) methods are used to analyze the data.ResultsWithin post-armed conflict states, a decline in neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality rates is associated with higher CPA implementation rates. Additionally, this study shows that higher GDP per capita, higher levels of democracy, and more primary school enrollment are also associated with lower child mortality rates. On the other hand, child mortality rates increase following a rebel victory in armed conflict.ConclusionOngoing armed conflicts are responsible for massive displacements and the destruction of economic, healthcare and human infrastructure, thus hindering improvements in child survival. For better health outcomes in post-armed conflict countries, ongoing armed conflict must cease through the signing and implementation of a CPA. Short-term and long-term public health issues are discussed in concluding comments.

Livelihood Coping Mechanisms, Local Intelligence, and the Pattern of Violence During the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal

While fighting insurgency, both state and non-state groups depend on the local population for valuable resources such as food, intelligence, and security. By using a repertoire of subsistence coping mechanisms available to households in the context of the local political economy as an indicator of grievances and mechanisms of interactions between local households and the state and insurgents, district level data from Nepal on Maoist conflict is used to test hypotheses regarding state and insurgent violence. The analysis confirms that the state was more likely to kill people in a district where the number of households that borrowed to cope with subsistence was high. The Maoists were more likely to kill in a district with a higher number of subsistence sufficient households.