Máire Ní Bhrolcháin

Fertility postponement is largely due to rising educational enrolment

The rise in educational enrolment is often cited as a possible cause of the trend to later childbearing in developed societies but direct evidence of its contribution to the aggregate change in fertility tempo is scarce. We show that rising enrolment, resulting in later ages at the end of education, accounts for a substantial part of the upward shift in the mean age at first birth in the 1980s and 1990s in Britain and in France. The postponement of first birth over that period has two components: a longer average period of enrolment and a post-enrolment component that is also related to educational level. The relationship between rising educational participation and the move to later fertility timing is almost certainly causal. Our findings therefore suggest that fertility tempo change is rooted in macro-economic and structural forces rather than in the cultural domain.

Period Parity Progression Ratios and Birth Intervals in England and Wales, 1941–1971: A Synthetic Life Table Analysis

A method is presented for analysing maternity history data to provide period estimates of parity progression ratios, birth intervals and related indices. This is applied to a sample of the marriage and maternity histories from the Census of England and Wales of 1971 and shows: (a) a general increase through the 1950s and into the 1960s in period estimates of marriage and parity progression ratios, especially in the progression from first to second birth; (b) a general acceleration of fertility with, again, the second birth interval becoming particularly short and compact; and (c) very steep declines in third and fourth birth progression ratios from the mid-1960s. Birth interval distributions altered during the period examined. Decomposition of a progression-based total fertility index shows change in the ratios for lower birth orders to have dominated the fertility upswing and declines in ratios for higher birth orders to have initiated the subsequent decline.

Cohabitation and marriage in Britain since the 1970s

The article presents an overview of trends in cohabitation and marriage in Britain over several decades, using a consistent set of retrospective histories from the General Household Survey 1979–2007. Time‐trends are presented, for men and women, of: the experience of different types of partnership by specified ages, the frequency of premarital cohabitation, the average time spent in different types of partnership, the timing of life course transitions, and the outcome of cohabitation and marriage at the fifth and tenth anniversaries.

Stability and change in fertility intentions in Britain, 1991–2007

The very low fertility experienced in several European countries in recent decades in the presence of higher intended family sizes has renewed interest in fertility intentions data. While the overall level of childbearing in Britain over the past few decades has remained relatively stable and high in comparison with many other European countries, we have seen sizeable increases in the age at which childbearing starts. This study uses data from the 1991 to 2007 General Household Surveys to examine trends in family intentions data in an attempt to arrive at a better understanding of these recent fertility developments. First, time trends in intended family size are compared with trends in observed fertility. Next, aggregate changes in intentions regarding the level and timing of fertility across the life course for cohorts are investigated together with the extent to which these aggregate intentions are matched by the subsequent childbearing of cohorts. Finally, both change across the life course and uncertainty in family intentions are examined. We conclude by discussing what these findings might tell us about contemporary reproductive decision making.

Sources of error in reported childlessness in a continuous British household survey

A recent investigation of the British General Household Survey (GHS) found substantial over-reporting of childlessness in recent years, particularly at older ages. We examine the phenomenon in further detail and find that the principal cause was change in survey procedures. To some extent the bias can be corrected for by using information on own children in the household. Revised fertility histories give period estimates of total fertility that are in close agreement with national vital registration statistics, unlike those based on original fertility histories of recent years. Misreporting in fertility histories dates primarily from administrative changes in the GHS in the years 1998–2000, and particularly from 2003, when the option of laptop self-completion (CASI) was introduced for reporting demographic histories.

The ethnicity question for the 1991 Census: Background and issues

The Government announced on 13 November 1989 that an ethnicity question would be asked in the 1991 Census. The decision was taken following the favourable public response to the fielding of a new form of ethnicity question in the large-scale Census Test carried out in April 1989. The question asks the respondent to tick one box from among the following categories: White, Black-Caribbean, Black-African, Black-Other (with description), Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Chinese, Any other ethnic group (with description). The 1991 Census will be the first British census to include an ethnicity question, though not the first for which such a question was proposed. The 1981 Census was to have had a question on race/ethnic group but the proposal was dropped following the unsuccessful trial of a question in the 1979 Census Test in Haringey. The absence of an ethnic-group question from the 1981 Census was a cause of concern to many connected with race relations and was extensively discussed following the decision to omit the question. An inquiry into the inclusion of an ethnicity question in the census was held by the Home Affairs Committee Sub-Committee on Race Relations and Immigration. The Sub-Committees final report was published in 1983 and, together with the memoranda and verbal evidence presented to the Committee, gives a very full account of the issues in this area.

Education and Cohabitation in Britain: A Return to Traditional Patterns?

Cohabitation is sometimes thought of as being inversely associated with education, but in Britain a more complex picture emerges. Educational group differences in cohabitation vary by age, time period, cohort, and indicator used. Well-educated women pioneered cohabitation in Britain in the 1970s and 1980s. In the most recent cohorts, however, the less educated have exceeded the best educated in the proportions ever having cohabited at young ages. But the main difference by education currently seems largely a matter of timing—that is, the less educated start cohabiting earlier than the best educated. In Britain, educational differentials in cohabitation appear to be reinstating longstanding social patterns in the level and timing of marriage. Taking partnerships as a whole, social differentials have been fairly stable. Following a period of innovation and diffusion, there is much continuity with the past.

Reweighting the General Household Survey 1979–2007

We have calculated two new sets of weights applicable to the General Household Survey (GHS) from 1979 to 2007. One of these is for use with any general analysis of GHS topics and the second is designed for analyses of data collected in the Family Information section. The methods used follow closely those employed by ONS from 1996 onwards. The performance of the weights is assessed in estimating the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 1971‐2007, an aggregate measure of fertility for which reliable figures are available at national level from vital registration statistics. Our weights improve the GHS estimates, reducing bias both in the TFR and in age‐specific fertility rates.

Birth intervals and women's economic activity

Some hypotheses regarding birth spacing and womens work are outlined. Using British census and survey data it is shown that average second and third birth intervals were shorter in marriages taking place in the 10 years following the Second World War as compared with marriages in the period 1900–29; the intervals increased again, measured on a period basis, in the 1970s. Birth intervals for women married during the 10 years after the war were shorter among those economically active at the 1971 census than among the inactive. Some problems of method are discussed.

Scolarité et autres caractéristiques socio-démographiques des enfants de mariages rompus.

Ni Bhrolchain (Maire), Chappell (Roma), Diamond (Ian). - Escolaridad y otras carac- teristicas socio-demograficas de los hijos de matrimonios disueltos Una muestra de jovenes nacidos en 1958 Gran Bretafia ha sido objeto de sucesivas encuestas a los 7, 16, 23 y 33 afios. Estas encuestas han permitido definir su situacion familiar en estos diferentes momentos y registrar informaciones sobre su escolaridad, modo de vida, actitudes de los padres, etc. La muestra esta compuesta por 7 866 jovenes de ambos sexos que vivian con sus padres a los 7 afios y 9 % de los cuales fue testigo de su separacion o muerte en los nueve afios que siguieron. El articulo compara los distintos comporta- mientos observados entre los 16 y los 23 anos (abandono de la escuela, abandono del hogar familiar, formacion de pareja, nacimiento de un hijo) segun que estos jovenes permanecie- ran con ambos progenitores o vivieran su separacion. Los dos grupos se han hecho lo mas comparables posible a nivel de las caracteristicas familiares y personales antes de los 7 afios. En general, los comportamientos de los adolescentes difieren raramente en funcion de la historia familiar vivida durante la infancia. Un analisis estadistico minucioso no confirma pues a priori una influencia a largo plazo de la separacion de los padres sobre los comportamientos escolares y socio-demograficos de los hijos.