Maja Nikšić Radić

The tourism-led terrorism hypothesis – evidence from Italy, Spain, UK, Germany and Turkey

The aim of this study was to explore the causal relationship between terrorism and international tourism arrivals in several selected European tourist destinations. The main goal is to look at this issue from another perspective, i.e. whether the tourism-led terrorism hypothesis can be proved valid in addition to the already established terrorist-led tourism hypothesis. The study used econometric techniques such as the unit root test, the Granger causality test in a vector autoregressive model (VAR model), the analysis of variance decomposition and the impulse response function for the monthly time-series data from 2001 (1) to 2015 (12). Based on the research conducted, it was found that tourism Granger causes terrorism in Turkey, United Kingdom and Germany, while terrorism Granger causes tourism in Italy and Spain.

Učinci turističkih transnacionalnih korporacija na zemlje u razvoju i manje razvijene zemlje

The transnational corporations functioning as major carriers and global business factors in todays globalized environment, are recognizable within the tourism sector through mega hotels, agencies and similar business chains. Foreign hotel chains represent now an established standard that any serious tourist destination must conform to if it is to be competitive within the global tourism market. In view of the importance given to direct foreign investments in tourism, and the expectations of the Croatian government regarding the entry of foreign capital in the tourism sector, the purpose of this paper is to discuss the role and importance of transnational corporations in tourism. The aim of this paper is to synthesize the most important effects of transnational tourism corporations on developing countries and less developed countries.

Tourism Foreign Direct Investment Led Tourism Gross Value Added: A Co-Integration and Causality Analysis of Croatian Tourism

Abstract The purpose of this study was to investigate the causal relationship between foreign direct investment in tourism and tourism gross value added in Croatia. The study employed econometric techniques, such as the unit root test, Johansen co-integration, and the Granger causality test, in a vector error correction model (V.E.C. model), and the Toda–Yamamoto causality test in a vector autoregressive model (V.A.R. model), using quarterly time-series data from 2000(1) to 2012(4). The results confirm the existence of a stable co-integrated relationship between variables in the long term. A short-term relationship was also proved between foreign direct investment in tourism and gross value added, using the Toda–Yamamoto causality test. By including control variables, the two-way causality between the subject variables was proven using the Granger causality test.

FDI-led tourism growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Croatian tourism

Abstract The aim of this paper is to explore the causal relationship between the foreign direct investment (FDI) stock in tourism and the number of international tourist arrivals in the Republic of Croatia in the period from 2000 to 2012. The study uses quarterly time series data from 2000(1) to 2012 (4). The augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test was carried out to test the stationarity of variables. The Johansen co-integration test was used to test a long-term relationship between the variables, and given the absence of the same, the vector autoregression (VAR) model is set up. The Granger and Toda–Yamamoto test was conducted to test a short-run causality between the selected variables. The results indicated a one-way short-run causality relationship running from FDI in tourism to international tourism arrivals at a high significance level of 1%. The research results emphasise the need to establish a favourable macroeconomic environment, as well as a policy of incentive investment measures specifically targeted at the tourism sector. This would enhance the conditions for higher FDI inflow essential for qualitative and quantitative positioning of Croatian tourism compared to competing destinations.

Testing the pollution-haven hypothesis: Empirical evidence from Croatia

Background: The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between the foreign direct investment (FDI) and the environment with the aim to test the pollution- haven hypothesis in Croatia. The paper contributes to existing research which has been mainly focused on the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth both at the global level as well as in Croatia. Methods: The study employs econometric techniques such as unit root test, Johansen co- integration and Granger and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests in Vector autoregressive model (VAR) using annual time series data from 1992 to 2013. A variable FDI has been obtained from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). CO2 emission per capita is used as the proxy for environmental quality. A variable CO2 has been obtained from the World Bank. Both used variables are in logarithms. Results: The results do not confirm the existence of a stable co-integrated relationship between variables in the long run. The Granger causality test and the Toda- Yamamoto version of the Granger causality test show a one-way short run causality relationship running from CO2 to the foreign direct investment in Croatia. Conclusions: The causality relationship running from CO2 to the foreign direct investment supports the pollution haven hypothesis. Croatia is still less developed country and it is less able to find the money for costs of implementing and monitoring environmental rules. Weak environmental regulation in Croatia may attract the foreign direct investment by companies keen to bypass costly regulatory rules in their home countries.