Maksud Bekchanov

Options and constraints for crop diversification: a case study in sustainable agriculture in Uzbekistan

This article describes various opportunities but also constraints to greater crop diversification, and the impact on local sustainability in the Khorezm province of Uzbekistan in the Aral Sea basin. At present, approximately 70% of the area in this study region is sown to irrigated cotton and winter wheat under the so-called state mandate. We present evidence of the benefits of moving away from this approach toward more diversified farming with an increasing area of alternative crops in the selected region. We report on a series of studies that included a) crop suitability screening based on secondary data, b) joint farmer experiments, and c) a mathematical simulation model with the overarching objective to assess potential benefits and constraints for crop diversification. The findings of this long-term, multiyear, and multidisciplinary approach show that greater crop diversity can increase water use efficiency, and secure farm income in dryland areas prone to water scarcity and soil salinity. In addition, the findings of the simulation model confirmed that crop diversification could secure income of downstream farmers during the climate-driven decline in water availability. Overall, the findings indicate that greater crop diversity and improved access to markets can lead to a sustainable development path in the region.

How would the Rogun Dam affect water and energy scarcity in Central Asia

The construction of the Rogun Dam in the Amu Darya Basin to increase upstream energy generation creates potential trade-offs with existing downstream irrigation, due to the different timing of energy and irrigation water demands. The present analysis, based on a hydro-economic optimization model, shows that cooperative basin-wide maximization of benefits would lead to large increases in upstream hydropower production and only minor changes in downstream irrigation benefits. However, if upstream stations, including Rogun, are managed unilaterally to maximize energy production, hydropower benefits might more than double while irrigation benefits greatly decrease, thereby substantially reducing overall basin benefits.

Estimation of Spatial and Temporal Variability of Crop Water Productivity with Incomplete Data

Crop water productivity (WP) in irrigated agriculture is a key for food and environmental security, in particular when water becomes scarce, as has been predicted for downstream regions in the Aral Sea basin. The assessment of WP for each field crop is hampered when farmers cultivate several crops at the same time and on the same fields and cannot record water allocation for each crop. Since results from the commonly used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach turned out to be unreliable and in some cases even had negative values, we combined a behavioral approach with mixed estimation methods to estimate water allocation for each crop over larger areas and over various years with limited data availability. Unobserved crop specific input data was derived from aggregated data using the mixed estimation method for the case study region Khorezm, located in northwestern Uzbekistan. On the basis of actual water usage, spatial (for different administrative districts in Khorezm) and temporal (for the years 2004–2007) distributions of WP for cotton, wheat, rice, vegetables (including melons), and fruits were estimated and visualized through contour diagrams. All crops, except forage, used much more irrigation water than the recommended amount, with cotton and rice being the highest water consumers. For example, cotton was almost 64% over-irrigated compared to the recommended amounts. Even though rice was cropped on a relatively small share of the total land in Khorezm (less than 10% of the total arable land), about 30% of the total crop irrigation water was applied on rice. WP depends on district or farms’ location declining proportionally to the distance from the water source, due to high conveyance losses and low yields monitored at the tail ends of the irrigation system. Extremely high water losses on both conveyance and field level revealed much scope for water saving by implementing different water-wise options such as lining canals, introducing best water use practices and producing less water consuming crops. This would, in turn, allow increasing crop yields and WP particularly in downstream districts. Furthermore, the comparison of WP among different crops and different districts allowed determining the potential suitability of certain districts for certain crops, which suggests that a more regionally differentiated cropping portfolio, according to water availability, soil quality and similar parameters, would improve overall system WP, and hence sustainability of the agricultural production.

A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Agricultural Development Reforms: National and Regional Perspective

Agriculture plays a pivotal role in the economy of both the Republic of Uzbekistan and the region Khorezm, as substantiated by a contribution of 25% of GDP and 40% of regional income. Since the agrarian sector is the engine of rural development and welfare, the impact of various agricultural policy scenarios on macroeconomic interrelationships and private and governmental earnings was examined using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model developed for the national and the regional level. A total of seven scenarios include the current set-up as well as alternative cumulative and non-cumulative scenarios. Considering the substantial contribution of the agricultural sector to the GDP and regional income and the dominance of cotton production in the agricultural sector of Uzbekistan, non-cumulative scenarios include a partial liberalization of cotton market and an upgrade of the total factor productivities of livestock and main crop production sectors. The national and regional databases included production, final demand, and input–output relations for 20 sectors of the economy, of which seven belonged to the agrarian sector. The establishment of the CGE model for the economies of both the region and the country permitted the comparison of policies on both levels. The model findings suggest, among other findings, that the scenario of the liberalization of the present cotton production policy would not necessarily have an immediate and substantial impact on national and regional income. However, this policy change would substantially decrease government (state budget) revenues on the regional scale while significantly benefiting the private sector due to the enormous reliance of the regional economy, particularly government earnings, on cotton and cotton-related industry sectors. The scenario of increased livestock productivity would yield a higher positive impact on national and regional income than cotton market liberalization and upgrading crop production efficiency. In spite of its negative impact on private revenues at the national scale, it would not only bear much room for increasing private incomes of the rural population, but also would allow a wider implementation of advanced water saving technologies, in particular in remote rural areas, and promote more crop biodiversity, at regional scale. In terms of government earnings, a livestock productivity increase is estimated to have higher impact than a crop-production efficiency increase on the national scale. However, on the regional level, it is the latter option that would produce higher governmental (state budget) earnings. It is argued that the effectiveness of regional development strategies in Uzbekistan would be enhanced by accounting for regional characteristics and the comparative advantages of each region, instead of a blanket approach to all regions in a uniform nationwide program.

Systematic Review of Water-Economy Modeling Applications

AbstractIncreasing demand for water coupled with reduced water availability in many regions of the world is leading to growing water scarcity and calls for implementation of a range of technologica...

Integrating Input-Output Modeling with Multi-criteria Analysis to Assess Options for Sustainable Economic Transformation: The Case of Uzbekistan

Integrating economic efficiency and environmental sustainability indicators is essential for designing policies for a sustainable development. Given the growing pressure on water resources, efficient water use becomes an essential environmental criteria for formulating adjustment reforms. Despite the wide use of backward and forward linkages as well as direct and indirect resource (energy, water, etc.) uses based on environmentally extended input-output models for assessing the performance of economic sectors, the common practice of presenting different indicators separately obstructed a straightforward policy interpretation of results. To derive a composite indicator that allows to direct ranking of sectors, we combined therefore a direct and indirect water use intensities with backward and forward linkage indexes by using the multi-criteria analysis method-TOPSIS (Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution). The model was implemented to formulate sectoral transformation measures guided by sustainable growth objectives in Uzbekistan, Central Asia, which is a representative of an area with growing water scarcity. The results showed that the presently promoted crops under the state order system—cotton and wheat—and crop preferred by farmers—rice—are the least effective production options for reaching such a sustainable growth. It is argued therefore that unbiased support for all crops through adaption of the current state order system for cotton and wheat cultivation is needed to achieve a more diversified crop portfolio with an increased share of fruits and vegetables. A further development of agro-processing industries and livestock sector bears more potential for sustainable economic development than a further promotion of producing raw agricultural commodities. Investing in industrial sectors illustrated more potential than in agriculture related sectors when aiming at economic effectiveness and increased water use efficiency. It is concluded that, with a relevant sectoral transformation, Uzbekistan has high opportunities to cope with reduced water availability.

Optimal Irrigation and N-fertilizer Management for Sustainable Winter Wheat Production in Khorezm, Uzbekistan

The efficiency of the nitrogen (N) application rates 0, 120, 180 and 240 kg N ha−1 in combination with low or medium water levels in the cultivation of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cv. Kupava was studied for the 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 growing seasons in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan. The results show an impact of the initial soil Nmin (NO3-N + NH4-N) levels measured at wheat seeding on the N fertilizer rates applied. When the Nmin content in the 0–50 cm soil layer was lower than 10 mg kg−1 during wheat seeding in 2005, the N rate of 180 kg ha−1 was found to be the most effective for achieving high grain yields of high quality. With a higher Nmin content of about 30 mg kg−1 as was the case in the 2006 season, 120 kg N ha−1 was determined as being the technical and economical optimum. The temporal course of N2O emissions of winter wheat cultivation for the two water-level studies shows that emissions were strongly influenced by irrigation and N-fertilization. Extremely high emissions were measured immediately after fertilizer application events that were combined with irrigation events. Given the high impact of N-fertilizer and irrigation-water management on N2O emissions, it can be concluded that present N-management practices should be modified to mitigate emissions of N2O and to achieve higher fertilizer use efficiency.

Potentials of Waste and Wastewater Resources Recovery and Re-Use (RRR) Options for Improving Water, Energy and Nutrition Security

Under increasing demand for water, fertilizer and energy, waste and wastewater treatment can be potential options for considerably enhancing not only the supply of these valuable economic assets but also for improving sanitation and ecological conditions. Effluents and treated wastewater are important for meeting water demands for agricultural irrigation, landscape irrigation, and environmental system enhancement. Fertilizer and nutrients recovered though recycling organic waste and filtering wastewater, or embedded in effluents can be essential inputs for increasing crop biomass, timber output, and production of aquatic crops and marine species such as fish. Similarly, energy recovered from waste and wastewater recycling (including dry manure for cooking and heating) is important for enhanced energy supply especially in remote rural areas of the developing countries. Yet, the utilization of the waste and wastewater resources for additional gains should consider the accepted safety measures in order to prevent environmental and health risks. Focusing on potential benefits from resources recycling and recovery yet being cautious on their external effects, this review critically assesses the available waste and wastewater treatment options, and their economic, environmental and health benefits and risks.

Input-Output Model-Based Water Footprint Indicators to Support IWRM in the Irrigated Drylands of Uzbekistan, Central Asia

Water scarcity due to increasing water demand triggered by population growth and irrigation expansion versus a limited and increasingly variable water supply as a consequence of climate change is presently one of the global challenges. This is exemplified in Uzbekistan, Central Asia, where irrigated agriculture is the primary source of the livelihoods of the rural population that makes more than 60 % of all inhabitants. Yet, socio-economic and ecological challenges keep growing, also due to the inefficient management of water resources. Therefore, options to increase water use efficiency were analyzed while considering the entire supply chain of products including the production, processing, consumption and trade stages and processes. These options were analyzed through an elaborated environmentally extended input-output model. The options examined throughout the entire supply chain included: (i) implementing advanced field-level water saving technologies, (ii) increasing crop diversity through expanding fruits and vegetables production and reducing the area of current dominant crops (cotton and paddy rice in downstream), (iii) fostering the further development of less-water demanding agricultural processing industries, (iv) upgrading production value chains by expanding the production of the commodities with higher values added, (v) reducing production and consumption losses, and (vi) diversifying exports by replacing the current cotton fiber exports with cotton commodities of higher values added. The findings may spur decision-makers to formulating strategic priorities at national level and coordinating water uses considering comprehensively technical, economic and ecological aspects along the entire supply chain, which is a key element of IWRM concepts. However, it is argued that increasing water use efficiency through technological and economic transformation reforms necessitates the empowerment of water users, raising their awareness for, and providing the institutional and market infrastructure, which is in-line with IWRM principles as well.

Ecosystem services in the water-energy-food nexus

Abstract Given their substantial societal benefits, such as supporting economic activities and providing better livelihoods in rural areas, ecosystem services should gain higher importance in water-food-energy nexus debates. Yet, not all values from ecosystems are quantifiable, data is often not adequate and methods of measuring these values are not sound. This situation challenges researchers and water managers to improve research tools and give adequate attention to ecosystem services by implementing interdisciplinary approaches and integrated management of ecosystems and their services.