Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka

Hydrological alteration of an ice-marginal valley and its influence on the extent of historical floods

Abstract Hydrological alteration within an ice-marginal valley is analysed in relation to flooding by the River Vistula flowing within that valley. Specifically, the analysis covers the period of the last two centuries (up to the present day), making reference to human impacts and natural disasters. Seven topographic maps, as well as digital terrain model (DTM) analysis of the extent of flooded areas are used to evaluate the linkage with historical flood events. Within the ice-marginal valley, flooding processes are found to still play an important role on the floodplain, although human activities have limited these significantly through the construction of embankments. The changing characteristics of floods generated by different mechanisms (e.g. heavy rainfall and ice jams) are also discussed. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Generation of Sequences of Air Temperature and Precipitation for Estimation of the Hydrological Cycle in Changing Climatic Conditions in Poland

Downscaling experiments are undertaken using kriging and distance-decay function interpolation to produce high resolution maps of temperature and precipitation in Poland from the GFDL and GISS macroscale scenarios. Measurements of precipitation and temperature at 58 stations are used to test the applications and to calculate the effects of the scenarios on areal averages. Average annual precipitation in Poland would rise from 639 mm to 749 mm under the GISS scenario and to 655 in the GFDL scenario. The spatial median mean air temperature would rise from 7.7°C to 10.5°C and 11.9°C respectively.