Manabu Abe

Observational constraints indicate risk of drying in the Amazon basin

Climate warming due to human activities will be accompanied by hydrological cycle changes. Economies, societies and ecosystems in South America are vulnerable to such water resource changes. Hence, water resource impact assessments for South America, and corresponding adaptation and mitigation policies, have attracted increased attention. However, substantial uncertainties remain in the current water resource assessments that are based on multiple coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation models. This uncertainty varies from significant wetting to catastrophic drying. By applying a statistical method, we characterized the uncertainty and identified global-scale metrics for measuring the reliability of water resource assessments in South America. Here, we show that, although the ensemble mean assessment suggested wetting across most of South America, the observational constraints indicate a higher probability of drying in the Amazon basin. Thus, over-reliance on the consensus of models can lead to inappropriate decision making.

A 6.5-year continuous record of sea surface salinity and seawater isotopic composition at Harbour of Ishigaki Island, southwest Japan

We produced continuous records of sea surface salinity and isotopic composition from 1998 to 2004 at Ishigaki Island, southwest Japan, and found clear seasonal variations in salinity and oxygen isotopic composition and increasing trends of them after 1999. These increasing trends could be principally due to the decreasing difference between local precipitation (P) and evaporation (E), as a result of the reduction of horizontal vapour transport from adjacent oceans. When samples collected in heavy rainfall events were excluded, the average Δδ18O/Δ salinity slope was obtained as 0.31, 0.35 in summer and 0.28 in winter. Estimated E/P ratios based on the isotopic box model are in good agreement with the ratios of independently estimated E to observed P. †Updated paper: originally presented on the IAEA International Symposium “Quality Assurance for Analytical Methods in Isotope Hydrology” (August 2004, Vienna).

Reliability and importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles

We investigate the performance of the newest generation multi-model ensemble (MME) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We compare the ensemble to the previous generation models (CMIP3) as well as several single model ensembles (SMEs), which are constructed by varying components of single models. These SMEs range from ensembles where parameter uncertainties are sampled (perturbed physics ensembles) through to an ensemble where a number of the physical schemes are switched (multi-physics ensemble). We focus on assessing reliability against present-day climatology with rank histograms, but also investigate the effective degrees of freedom (EDoF) of the fields of variables which makes the statistical test of reliability more rigorous, and consider the distances between the observation and ensemble members. We find that the features of the CMIP5 rank histograms, of general reliability on broad scales, are consistent with those of CMIP3, suggesting a similar level of performance for present-day climatology. The spread of MMEs tends towards being “over-dispersed” rather than “under-dispersed”. In general, the SMEs examined tend towards insufficient dispersion and the rank histogram analysis identifies them as being statistically distinguishable from many of the observations. The EDoFs of the MMEs are generally greater than those of SMEs, suggesting that structural changes lead to a characteristically richer range of model behaviours than is obtained with parametric/physical-scheme-switching ensembles. For distance measures, the observations and models ensemble members are similarly spaced from each other for MMEs, whereas for the SMEs, the observations are generally well outside the ensemble. We suggest that multi-model ensembles should represent an important component of uncertainty analysis.

Vegetation masking effect on future warming and snow albedo feedback in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia according to MIROC‐ESM

The Earth system model, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth system model (MIROC-ESM), in which the leaf area index (LAI) is calculated interactively with an ecological land model, simulated future changes in the snow water equivalent under the scenario of global warming. Using MIROC-ESM, the effects of the snow albedo feedback (SAF) in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia were examined under the possible climate future scenario RCP8.5. The simulated surface air temperature (SAT) in spring greatly increases across Siberia and the boreal forest region, whereas the snow cover decreases remarkably only in western Eurasia. The large increase in SAT across Siberia is attributed to strong SAF, which is caused by both the reduced snow-covered fraction and the reduced surface albedo of the snow-covered portion due to the vegetation masking effect in those grid cells. A comparison of the future changes with and without interactive LAI changes shows that in Siberia, the vegetation masking effect increases the spring SAF by about two or three times and enhances the spring warming by approximately 1.5 times. This implies that increases in vegetation biomass in the future are a potential contributing factor to warming trends and that further research on the vegetation masking effect is needed for reliable future projection.

Development and application of GCOM-C LAI and GPP/NPP research products

GCOM-C SGLI land products are being developed toward better understandings of terrestrial carbon cycle and future climate change projection. In this paper, we will introduce two research products, Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and their application of these products to earth system models (ESMs). The LAI product as research product is an improved version from standard product. The LAI retrieval is based on FLiES canopy radiative transfer model with improved treatment to boreal to arctic ecosystems by including overstory and understory vegetation. NPP and GPP products are based on improved version of BESS (Breathing Earth System Simulator) model, and initial results are discussed. Using these potential products, our goal is to evaluate and improve ESMs. We will show initial comparison of satellite-based products of LAI, GPP, NPP with ESM outputs, and evaluate similarity and differences between satellite products and model outputs.