Manmohan Kapshe

Large point source (LPS) emissions from India: regional and sectoral analysis

Abstract Indian large point sources (LPS) contribute to CO 2 and SO 2 emissions to a large extent (above 65%) and to CH 4 , N 2 O and NO X emissions to some extent (around 10%). The former emissions are primarily from fossil fuel combustion while the latter have agriculture sector dominance, explaining the drastic difference in LPS contributions to all India emissions. The present paper covers 509 LPS for India. These are well distributed across the country. However, there are some regions of very few LPS (like the western desert and the hilly areas of north, northeast and coastal west) and some regions of high LPS concentration (Mumbai–Ahmedabad corridor, Delhi and near coal mine mouths). There is a dominance of power plants in Indian LPS emissions for CO 2 and SO 2 (47% each), with cement (9% and 5%) and steel (6% and 7%) plants being the other major contributors. Moreover, due to growing population, increasing urbanization and higher consumption levels, these LPS emissions are growing much faster than the national average. The present analysis would be useful for policy-making to mitigate these pollutants and their associated impacts.

Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

In the coming years India faces greatchallenges in energy and environment. Thepath of development chosen by India, uponwhich lies the future growth of energy andemission trajectories, would be greatlyinfluenced by technological developmentsboth within and outside the country,economic cooperation between countries, andglobal cooperation in limiting greenhousegas emissions. This paper discusses theintegrated modeling system used fordeveloping and analyzing the long-termtrajectories and presents results for thescenarios developed. In the context ofongoing market reforms two scenarios –accelerated and decelerated reforms – aredeveloped depicting fast and slow progressin energy sector reforms compared toexpectations in the baseline scenario.Accelerated market reforms would spurimprovements in technological efficiencies.Reforms would lower investment risks inIndia, thereby stimulating increased levelsof foreign direct investment. On the otherhand in decelerated reform scenarioeconomic growth is lower than that in thebase case, there is low access to capital,and technological improvements lag behindthose in the base case. In another scenariowe assume specific policy interventions forpenetration of renewable technologies overthe baseline scenario, for promotion andaccelerated deployment of renewable energytechnologies over and above the baselineassumptions. A scenario with carbon(c) constraints has also been developed and theresults discussed.

Application of AIM/Local Model to India using Area and Large Point Sources

India’s emissions inventory estimates indicate that Large Point Sources (LPS) contribute above 60% of CO2 and SO2 emissions. Uneven distribution of energy resources, unbalanced regional development and the present high economic growth has led to emission patterns with dispersed hotspots. The policy making to address the environmental concerns thus rests on the assessment of future emissions and the options to mitigate them. The paper shows, using AIM/Local model with GIS interface, that Indian CO2 emissions shall continue to rise steadily till 2030, whereas the SO2 emissions shall decline after 2020, creating a natural decoupling of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and local emissions. The carbon mitigation analysis, under three global policy regimes, indicates substitution of coal by gas, besides pushing energy efficient and low carbon technologies. Under all the scenarios, LPS contribute a major share of emissions, with industrial centers and large cities growing into major hotspots of emissions. Paper suggests that these spots would be the major focus of future emissions mitigation policy analysis for applications of formal tools like the AIM/Local model.

Global climate change stabilization regimes and Indian emission scenarios: Lessons for modeling of developing country transitions

The global climate change stabilization regime will have a bearing on future emission pathways of each nation. Corresponding to a combination of stabilization targets and a future global socioeconomic and technology scenario, there are national emissions pathways that when aggregated would make the global regime most cost effective. The underlying hypothesis of this article is that the disaggregated national (regional) scenarios, with explicit inclusion of developing country dynamics in scenario constructions and modeling frameworks, would enhance the qualitative and quantitative understanding of emissions pathways and mitigation strategies compared with the present exercises. The scenario construction for India pays specific attention to developing country dynamics, including multiple socioeconomic and demographic transitions. The article also delineates the lessons for modeling of these transitions in developing countries. The emissions pathways discussion, to begin with, considers 100-year nonintervention scenarios. For the business-as-usual scenario, the optimal portfolio of mitigation interventions in India corresponding to 550ppm (by volume) global concentration stabilization is presented. In conclusion, the article asserts the need for realistic inclusion of developing country transitions in global scenarios and modeling exercises so as to improve the emissions assessments and delineation of mitigation strategies for stabilization.