Manoel Leonardo Santos

When is statistical significance not significant

The article provides a non-technical introduction to the p value statistics. Its main purpose is to help researchers make sense of the appropriate role of the p value statistics in empirical political science research. On methodological grounds, we use replication, simulations and observational data to show when statistical significance is not significant. We argue that: (1) scholars must always graphically analyze their data before interpreting the p value; (2) it is pointless to estimate the p value for non-random samples; (3) the p value is highly affected by the sample size, and (4) it is pointless to estimate the p value when dealing with data on population.

Financiamento de campanha e apoio parlamentar à Agenda Legislativa da Indústria na Câmara dos Deputados

What is the effect of campaign financing on the behavior of congressman? This article analyzes the vote of Brazilian federal deputies (1999-2007) in relation to the projects of interest to the National Confederation of Industry (CNI). Methodologically, the article combines descriptive statistics and multivariate analysis to test the hypothesis that, the higher the campaign financing by industry, greater parliamentary cooperation with the interests of this sector. We use cluster analysis, logistic regression models and Poisson to estimate the effect of campaign financing on cooperation. The results confirm the hypothesis partially. Relationship between industry funding and cooperation of parliamentarians was not found, but it is confirmed that the proportion of corporate resources influences positively the cooperation of Brazilian parliamentarians with the interests of the CNI, controlling by different variables. These results align to the international literature about the subject that finds a positive relationship between campaign contributions and Congressional behavior.

El control presidencial de la agenda legislativa en América Latina

Resumen es: Este trabajo analiza bajo que condiciones los presidentes logran dominar la agenda legislativa. Para abordar esta cuestion analizamos los periodos gubern...

Y LA NAVE VA: BRASIL BAJO DlLMA ROUSSEFF

Resumen es: Este articulo hace un analisis del escenario politico brasileno a lo largo del segundo ano de gobierno de Dilma Rousseff. Han sido cuatro los objetivos d...