Manoj Panda

Economic development, poverty reduction and carbon emissions in India

This paper analyses carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy consumption using an input-output (I-O) model, for different sectors of the Indian economy in 1990. Alternative scenarios are developed for 2005. The I-O model considers structural changes in aggregate consumption behaviour and sectoral composition of output between 1990 and 2005. Alternative energy efficiency programmes are compared for their potential CO2 reduction in 2005. Under ambitious poverty reduction targets, the annual growth rate of CO2 emissions increases from 4.8% to 5.9%. However, energy efficiency programmes could reduce the average annual growth rate of CO2 emissions back to 4.9%. It is also seen that reducing CO2 through oil conservation is a preferred policy for India compared with saving coal.

Economic growth, energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions in India: 1990-2020

This article investigates the linkages between economic growth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in India by analysing the structure of production and consumption in the Indian economy. We begin with an examination of the consumption pattern of six different income classes, three each in urban and rural India, and then estimate the direct and indirect energy and CO2 emission coefficients for supporting production in various sectors. This provides us with a basis for estimating the energy and emission content of the consumption baskets of the different income classes in India. CO2 emissions are projected to increase from 0.18 tonnes of carbon (tC) per capita in 1990 to about 0.62 tC per capita in 2020 under the reference scenario which corresponds to a GDP growth rate of 5.5% per annum. We then analyse scenarios of technology improvement in which emissions are reduced to 0.47 tC per capita in 2020. Our projection methodology takes into account the changes in aggregate consumpti on pattern due to mobility of the population across the income classes and from rural to urban areas, besides the increase in per capita consumption of all classes.

Agricultural trade liberalization: growth, welfare and large country effects

The impacts of trade liberalization for India have been examined with an applied general equilibrium model with nine agricultural sectors, one non-tradeable nonagriculture sector and one tradeable nonagriculture sector and with five rural and five urban expenditure classes. Different scenarios are generated using the model. Since comparison of GDP in two alternative scenarios can be misleading, the policy alternatives are assessed on the basis of their impact on welfare in terms of equivalent incomes of different expenditure classes. A policy is assessed preferable only when the distribution of welfare is found to be preferable in a well defined way. It demonstrates the importance of accounting for large country effects in rice trade and estimates the welfare optimal tariff/ quota for rice exports for India-which is shown to be just half a million tons of net export of rice. The results also show that nonagricultural trade liberalization is even more important for agriculture than even agricultural trade liberalization, both of which help accelerate growth.

CO2 Emission Reduction Strategies and Economic Development of India

This article examines the consequences of alternative CO2 emission reduction strategies on economic development and, in particular, the implications for the poor by empirically implementing an economy-wide model for India over a 35-year time horizon. A multi-sectoral, inter-temporal model in the activity analysis framework is used for this purpose. The model with specific technological alternatives, endogenous income distribution and truly dynamic behaviour and that covers the whole economy is an integrated top-down–bottom-up model. The results show that CO2 emission reduction imposes costs in terms of lower GDP and higher poverty. Cumulative emission reduction targets are, however, preferable to annual reduction targets and that a dynamically optimum strategy can help reduce the burden of emission reductions. The scenarios involving compensation for the loss in welfare are not very encouraging as they require large capital inflows. Contrasted with these, scenarios involving tradable emission quota give India an incentive to be carbon efficient. It becomes a net seller for the first 25 years, and because of reduction in carbon intensity it would demand less in later years when it becomes a net buyer. The results suggest that for India and other developing countries, the window of opportunity to sell carbon quotas is the next two decades or so.

An Asian Perspective on a World Environmental Organisation

We analyse the possible response from Asian developing countries (ADC) to the proposal for the formation of an international legal entity called World Environmental Organistion (WEO) designed to facilitate the internalisation of global environmental externalities. We argue that the WEO must recognise the fundamental indivisibility of the economic growthenvironment agenda in these countries. If suitable side payments in the shape of tariff concessions, relaxation of non-tariff barriers and transfers of technology and cash are made and the WEO is seen to be relevant to the environmental problems of ADC, they may well participate in such a venture. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2002.