Jyoti Parikh

Linkages between climate change and sustainable development

Climate change does not yet feature prominently within the environmental or economic policy agendas of developing countries. Yet evidence shows that some of the most adverse effects of climate change will be in developing countries, where populations are most vulnerable and least likely to easily adapt to climate change, and that climate change will affect the potential for development in these countries. Some synergies already exist between climate change policies and the sustainable development agenda in developing countries, such as energy efficiency, renewable energy, transport and sustainable land-use policies. Despite limited attention from policy-makers to date, climate change policies could have significant ancillary benefits for the local environment. The reverse is also true as local and national policies to address congestion, air quality, access to energy services and energy diversity may also limit GHG emissions. Nevertheless there could be significant trade-offs associated with deeper levels of mitigation in some countries, for example where developing countries are dependent on indigenous coal and may be required to switch to cleaner yet more expensive fuels to limit emissions. The distributional impacts of such policies are an important determinant of their feasibility and need to be considered up-front. It follows that future agreements on mitigation and adaptation under the convention will need to recognise the diverse situations of developing countries with respect to their level of economic development, their vulnerability to climate change and their ability to adapt or mitigate. Recognition of how climate change is likely to influence other development priorities may be a first step toward building cost-effective strategies and integrated, institutional capacity in developing countries to respond to climate change. Opportunities may also exist in developing countries to use regional economic organisations to assist in the design of integrated responses and to exploit synergies between climate change and other policies such as those designed to combat desertification and preserve biodiversity.

Urbanization, energy use and greenhouse effects in economic development: Results from a cross-national study of developing countries☆

Abstract This paper seeks an exploratory assessment of the possible global greenhouse consequences of economic development in general and urbanization in particular, especially insofar as they relate to changing patterns of energy use. First, the nature of the relationship between urbanization and increased resource use is elaborated upon, and the impact of the development transition upon levels of energy consumption is empirically analysed in a multiple regression framework, using cross-national variations in urbanization and other development indicators to estimate a fixed-effects model of the determinants of energy usage. The same set of hypothesized determinants is then used to measure their contribution to estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the full set of countries. Next, we focus upon the subsample of developing countries to study the effects of urbanization upon their evolving profiles of energy use, disaggregated by final use sector and fuel type, and estimate the magnitude of the greenhouse effects attributable to each of these component fuel uses. Finally, we present some of the implications of the results for policies toward urbanization and energy strategies for developing countries in the context of global environmental management imperatives.

Indian agriculture and climate sensitivity

Abstract This study estimates the relationship between farm level net-revenue and climate variables in India using cross-sectional evidence. Using the observed reactions of farmers, the study seeks to understand how they have adapted to different climatic conditions across India. District level data is used for the analysis. The study also explores the influence of annual weather and crop prices on the climate response function. The estimated climate response function is used to assess the possible impacts of a ‘best-guess’ climate change scenario on Indian agriculture.

Measuring the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture

The set of studies in this report explores farm performance across climates in India. The goal of the study is to examine farm behavior and test if there is any evidence that farmers in developing countries, such as India, currently adjust to their local climates. The reported studies measure the climate sensitivity of low-capital agriculture. They test whether actual farm performance is as sensitive to climate as agronomic models predict assuming no adaptation.

Optimal reactive power planning and its spot-pricing: an integrated approach

The paper presents an integrated framework to analyze the issues of reactive power planning along with reactive power pricing. The planning problem involves optimal placement and sizing of capacitors in a network such that operating and investment costs are minimum. A simple bus-wise cost-benefit analysis (CBA) scheme is proposed which involves solving a modified optimal power flow problem (OPF) iteratively. The proposed CBA incorporates detailed hourly loading conditions at a bus and achieves a fairly accurate estimate of the benefits from capacitor placement. The formulation is directly handled by the well known MINOS code and is solved efficiently. It obviates the need to introduce integer variables and is thus suitable for large system applications. A two-part reactive power spot-pricing scheme is formulated, by which the investment and operational costs can be recovered by the utility. The proposed reactive power price has two parts-a fixed part to account for the investment costs of new capacitor at a bus and a variable spot price to account for the operating costs incurred in supplying the additional reactive power from generating units.

Exposure from cooking with biofuels: pollution monitoring and analysis for rural Tamil Nadu, India

In this paper, statistical analysis to examine the links between pollution and the types of kitchen and fuels is carried out for rural houses by first monitoring the indoor air quality (IAQ) followed by regression analysis of 418 households in Tamil Nadu, India. Exposures to the chief cook (females, who are mainly involved in the cooking during monitoring) are measured with personal monitors. The result shows that the values of respirable particles (PM10) ranged from 500–2000 μg/m3 during a two-hour cooking period from burning biofuels. The range depends on the type of kitchen and fuel use. Stationary monitors, placed two metres away from the stove, also recorded similar concentrations. Thus, the individuals who stay inside the houses using biofuels also face high concentrations even if they are not cooking. They could be senior citizens, children or adult males. Thus, there are two major findings from this analysis. Improved house designs that pay attention to kitchen location and put up partitions should also be considered in the intervention portfolio. Secondly, the exposure is not limited to the cooks alone. The rest of the family in the vicinity is also exposed through a “passive cooking effect”.

Indicators of carbon emission intensity from commercial energy use in India

Abstract This study tries to analyze the commercial energy consumption evolution patterns in India in terms of primary energy requirements and final energy consumption and their implications for overall carbon intensity of the economy. The relative contribution and impact of different factors such as activity levels, structural changes, energy intensity, fuel mix and fuel quality on the changes in aggregate carbon intensity of the economy has been studied, taking into account coal quality which has declined drastically in the last two decades. The major findings of the study are: firstly, from the 1980s onwards, income effect has been the major determinant of India’s per capita emission increase, although prior to that, energy intensity used to be the most important factor. Secondly, there has been a major shift towards electricity from primary energy carriers in the major energy consuming sectors, and the higher end use-efficiency of electricity has been able to compensate for the high emission coefficient of electricity consumption. Thirdly, emission intensity of thermal power generation shows a substantial decline when the data is controlled for the declining quality of coal used in power generation.

Interruptible load management using optimal power flow analysis

An interruptible load management (ILM) scheme is proposed using dynamic optimal power flow analysis. It enables real-time selection of interruptible loads incorporating power network constraints and dynamic restriction on generation, viz. ramp-rate limits. The model provides an analytical framework for addressing several important issues associated with optimal selection of load curtailment, e.g. advance notification for load curtailment, short-term price discounts and long-term discounts on demand-charges, power factor of the load and customer-cost associated with the load to be curtailed, and power system security. A six-bus example illustrates the proposed methodology.

TRANSPORT SECTOR IN INDIA: AN ANALYSIS IN THE CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

A brief review of the Indian transport sector in the past few decades is provided in this article. It is shown that the period has witnessed a gradual transformation from rail-dominated transport to road-dominated transport. Infrastructure bottlenecks such as lack of roads and railways network and aircraft are the limiting factors. Emission of local pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2) because of fuel consumption in transport were estimated. Future transport performance is projected using cointegrating econometric models. The models project that passenger traffic in India is likely to grow at more than 8% per year and freight traffic at more than 5% per year during the period 1990-2021. This will increase the energy consumption and CO2 emissions at equivalent rates. The effects of various policy options aimed at reducing energy consumption and CO2 emission were analysed using a scenario approach. The scenario analysis shows that efficiency improvements can reduce future energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 26%. If the modal split is promoted in favour of public transport modes (rail and public road transport), about 45% reduction in energy requirements and CO2 emissions is expected.

Study of efficiency and productivity growth in opencast and underground coal mining in India: a DEA analysis

This paper attempts to study efficiency and productivity of coal mining in the Indian coal sector using detailed input and output data for underground and opencast coal mining for the period between 1985 and 1997. The non-parametric approach of data envelopment analysis (DEA) is adopted for performance analysis of different coal mining regions. Total factor productivity growth was analysed using the Malmquist index by decomposing productivity change into efficiency and technical change. Results of the analysis do not conform to the prevailing notion of opencast (OC) mining having shown more productivity growth than underground mining in India. An increasing percentage of OC mining regions showed a decline in efficiency over the period of analysis. Approximately 58%, 59% and 67% of the mining regions showed decline in productivity between 1985 and 1990, 1990 and 1995 and 1995 and 1997, respectively. Technical progress seems to have been the major driving factor behind productivity growth in opencast mining, while efficiency growth has been the most important factor in growth of underground mine productivity. Underground mines seem to have adopted a more efficient practice of operation to compensate for the lag in technical change. On the other hand, operational efficiency of opencast mines seems to have been overlooked in the process of increasing production through technological improvement in OC mining.