Mansor Ibrahim

Macroeconomic variables and the Malaysian equity market: A view through rolling subsamples

Analyzes dynamic linkages between stock prices and four macroeconomic variables for the case of Malaysia using standard and well‐accepted methods of cointegration and vector autoregression. Empirical results suggest the presence of a long‐run relationship between these variables and the stock prices and substantial short‐run interactions among them. In particular, documents positive short‐run and long‐run relationships between the stock prices and two macroeconomic variables. The exchange rate, however, is negatively associated with the stock prices. For the money supply, documents immediate positive liquidity effects and negative long‐run effects of money supply expansion on the stock prices. Also notes the predictive role of the stock prices for the macroeconomic variables. However, there seems to be irregularity in the data when observations from the recent crisis are included. Finally, documents the disappearance of the immediate positive liquidity effects of the money supply shocks and unstable interactions between the stock prices and the exchange rate over time.

Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices in Malaysia: An Empirical Analysis

The article investigates the dynamic interactions between seven macroeconomic variables and the stock prices for an emerging market, Malaysia, using cointegration and Granger causality tests. The results strongly suggest informational inefficiency in the Malaysian market. The bivariate analysis suggests cointegration between the stock prices and three macroeconomic variables – consumer prices, credit aggregates and official reserves. From bivariate error-correction models, we note the reactions of the stock prices to deviations from the long run equilibrium. These results are further strengthened when we extend the analysis to multivariate settings. We also note some evidence that the stock prices are Granger-caused by changes in the official reserves and exchange rates in the short run.

Macroeconomic forces and capital market integration A VAR analysis for Malaysia

This paper applies cointegration and VAR modeling to evaluate the long-run relationship and dynamic interactions between the Malaysian equity market, various economic variables, and major equity markets of the US and Japan. From the analysis, we find evidence for cointegration among the variables. The variance decompositions and impulse-response functions generated from the VAR suggest the dominant influence of nominal variables, particularly the money supply on Malaysian equity prices. At the same time, variations in equity prices do contain some information on such nominal variables, as money supply and consumer prices, suggesting bidirectional causality between them. We also note from the results the significant role of international equity prices on Malaysian equity prices as well as on Malaysian economic variables. Interestingly, the nature of the long-run relationship and spillovers of disturbances in the two major markets to the Malaysian economy is different. From a policy point of view, to the extent that monetary authority can control money supply, it has to be very cautious in implementing monetary policy since it has repercussions on financial stability. Moreover, disturbances of two major financial markets need to be treated differently in the information set of policy-makers.

Integration or Segmentation of the Malaysian Equity Market: An Analysis of Pre- and Post-Capital Controls

Abstract This paper utilizes cointegration and vector autoregression (VAR) to assess integration or segmentation of the Malaysian equity market both prior to the Asian crisis and after the imposition of capital controls. We consider both regional and international financial forces represented respectively by the ASEAN markets and the advanced markets of US and Japan. We form three systems of share prices: (i) ASEAN markets; (ii) US, Japan and Malaysia; and (iii) US, Japan and ASEAN. Our findings suggest no long run relation among share prices in all systems either before the Asian crisis or after the imposition of capital controls. However, there are substantial short run dynamic interactions among regional markets of ASEAN. We note significant responses of the Malaysian market to ASEAN shocks regardless of the sample periods. By contrast, its responses to innovations in US and Japan, while significant before the Asian crisis, turn insignificant after the imposition of capital controls. The US market is comparatively more influential in accounting for fluctuations in the ASEAN markets. From these results, we contend that capital controls played some role in insulating the Malaysian market from international disturbances.

How inflationary are oil price hikes? A disaggregated look at Thailand using symmetric and asymmetric cointegration models

The present paper analyzes the inflationary effects of oil prices at the aggregate and disaggregated levels for Thailand using symmetric and asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modeling approaches. The cointegration test results suggest the presence of long-run relations between oil prices and the following price indices: aggregate consumer price index, non-food and beverage price index, housing and furnishing price index, energy price index, non-raw food and energy price index and transportation and communication price index. Meanwhile, food and beverage price index and raw food price index are not cointegrated with the oil prices. From the dynamic analyses, we uncover evidence for asymmetric adjustments of the aggregate consumer prices, the non-food and beverage prices and the housing and furnishing prices towards their long-run values. Further, the effects of oil prices on inflation are observed to be significant in all goods sectors in the short run. The largest impacts of oil price changes are on the energy price inflation followed by the transportation and communication price inflation and the non-raw food and energy price inflation.

An Empirical Note on the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: The Case of Malaysia

The present empirical note re-examines the export-led growth hypothesis for the case of Malaysia. Using standard procedures of unit root testing, cointegration and error correction modelling, we find evidence for bi-directional causality between exports and real output per capita. Addressing the issue of exogeneity, we test for weak exogeneity and super exogeneity of exports within the error correction framework. We find evidence that exports are not weakly exogenous and subsequently, are not super exogenous. This result weakens the case for the export-led growth hypothesis. In the Malaysian context, the Lucas critique applies, namely, that the relationship between exports and real output per capita is not invariant to policy changes or regime shifts.

Social Capital and Financial Market Development

In the 1990s, institutions became an important area of focus when investigating the process of financial development and the success or failure of financial reforms. This was partly a consequence of the failure of many developing countries that had liberalized their financial systems to realize the expected benefits from such reforms. For example, Demetriades and Andrianova (2004) argue that the strength of institutions, such as financial regulation and the rule of law, may determine the success or failure of financial reforms. Chinn and Ito (2006) also suggest that financial systems with a higher degree of legal/institutional development tend to benefit more from financial liberalization than do those with a lower degree. Mishkin (2009) points out that a legal system that enforces contracts quickly and fairly is a prerequisite for supporting strong property rights and financial development. Thus, eliminating corruption is essential to strengthening property rights and the legal system, which will further enhance the healthy functioning of economic and financial systems.

HISTORICAL URBAN FORM: A CASE STUDY OF MELAKA

Understanding the urban form is crucial in determining the structure of a city in terms of physical and nonphysical aspects. The physical aspects include built-up areas that can be seen on the earth surface, and the nonphysical aspects include the shape, size, density, and configuration of settlements. The objectives of this study are to (i) analyse the elements of historical urban form that are suitable for the site and (ii) to study on the elements of urban form in Melaka. Content analysis was adopted to analyse the literature of urban form and Melaka. Results show that the following four elements of urban form are suitable to be used for historical urban form analysis: (i) streets, (ii) land use, (iii) buildings, and (iv) open space. The findings also indicate that the selected urban form has successfully delineated in the historical of Melaka as the selected urban elements can be specifically scrutinized with the content analysis. Further study will focus on the historical urban form within the Malay Peninsula. . Keyword: urban form, historical built environment, Melaka Illyani Ibrahim, Alias Abdullah, Mansor Ibrahim, & Fatin Farhana Murtaza Historical Urban Form: A Case Study of Melaka

The Regional and National Agenda in Urban-Architectural Identity through Conflicts and Conflations

This chapter reviews past themes and definitions and creates a framework around which the discussion and structure of the book is based. Several operational definitions are presented along with key issues that face architecture and urban form during a period of modernity. The conflicts and confluences between issues and discourses that swirl around regionalism and nationalist identity as a foundation for urban identity are presented. It sets out several themes in terms of theory and practice and the past debates that dichotomies have found their way into discussions on identity in the built environment in a post-colonial context of emerging nations. Modernity, regionalist identity, criticality and ‘modern’ architectural language are defined within an era of modernisation which throws such concepts and intentions into sharper relief.

The Mosque in a Multicultural Context: Modernity, Hybridity and Eclecticism

This chapter begins by reviewing the evolution of the mosque vocabulary by focusing on state and nationally-sponsored mosques. The trajectory of the discussion begins with the late colonial period in Malaysian history in order to trace key changes in the mosque vocabulary and link these with significant thresholds in the nation’s history. Mosque architectural language evolved as almost a mirror reflection of the history of modern Malaysia. This also sheds light on the meaning and persistence of the eclectic language in state-sponsored mosques and mosque form, language and style as reflections of the idea of modernisation and Modernism in the evolution of mosque styles. It is argued that these forms are sides of the same coin of modernity which encapsulated the nation at different thresholds of modernisation. Amongst others, it reviews eclecticism in mosques as expressions of a kind of modernity rather than tradition, and attempts to differentiate the expressive position of ‘modernising tradition’ or ‘regionalising the modern.’