Manuel Gloor

Increasing carbon storage in intact African tropical forests

The response of terrestrial vegetation to a globally changing environment is central to predictions of future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The role of tropical forests is critical because they are carbon-dense and highly productive. Inventory plots across Amazonia show that old-growth forests have increased in carbon storage over recent decades, but the response of one-third of the world’s tropical forests in Africa is largely unknown owing to an absence of spatially extensive observation networks. Here we report data from a ten-country network of long-term monitoring plots in African tropical forests. We find that across 79 plots (163 ha) above-ground carbon storage in live trees increased by 0.63 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 between 1968 and 2007 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.22–0.94; mean interval, 1987–96). Extrapolation to unmeasured forest components (live roots, small trees, necromass) and scaling to the continent implies a total increase in carbon storage in African tropical forest trees of 0.34 Pg C yr-1 (CI, 0.15–0.43). These reported changes in carbon storage are similar to those reported for Amazonian forests per unit area, providing evidence that increasing carbon storage in old-growth forests is a pan-tropical phenomenon. Indeed, combining all standardized inventory data from this study and from tropical America and Asia together yields a comparable figure of 0.49 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 (n = 156; 562 ha; CI, 0.29–0.66; mean interval, 1987–97). This indicates a carbon sink of 1.3 Pg C yr-1 (CI, 0.8–1.6) across all tropical forests during recent decades. Taxon-specific analyses of African inventory and other data suggest that widespread changes in resource availability, such as increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, may be the cause of the increase in carbon stocks, as some theory and models predict.

Oceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric CO2

We synthesize estimates of the contemporary net air-sea CO2 flux on the basis of an inversion of interior ocean carbon observations using a suite of 10 ocean general circulation models (Mikaloff Fletcher et al., 2006, 2007) and compare them to estimates based on a new climatology of the air-sea difference of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) (Takahashi et al., 2008). These two independent flux estimates reveal a consistent description of the regional distribution of annual mean sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 for the decade of the 1990s and the early 2000s with differences at the regional level of generally less than 0.1 Pg C a−1. This distribution is characterized by outgassing in the tropics, uptake in midlatitudes, and comparatively small fluxes in thehigh latitudes. Both estimates point toward a small (∼ −0.3 Pg C a−1) contemporary CO2 sink in the Southern Ocean (south of 44°S), a result of the near cancellation between a substantial outgassing of natural CO2 and a strong uptake of anthropogenic CO2. A notable exception in the generally good agreement between the two estimates exists within the Southern Ocean: the ocean inversion suggests a relatively uniform uptake, while the pCO2-based estimate suggests strong uptake in the region between 58°S and 44°S, and a source in the region south of 58°S. Globally and for a nominal period between 1995 and 2000, the contemporary net air-sea flux of CO2 is estimated to be −1.7 ± 0.4 Pg C a−1 (inversion) and −1.4 ± 0.7 Pg C a−1 (pCO2-climatology), respectively, consisting of an outgassing flux of river-derived carbon of ∼+0.5 Pg C a−1, and an uptake flux of anthropogenic carbon of −2.2 ± 0.3 Pg C a−1 (inversion) and −1.9 ± 0.7 Pg C a−1 (pCO2-climatology). The two flux estimates also imply a consistent description of the contemporary meridional transport of carbon with southward ocean transport throughout most of the Atlantic basin, and strong equatorward convergence in the Indo-Pacific basins. Both transport estimates suggest a small hemispheric asymmetry with a southward transport of between −0.2 and −0.3 Pg C a−1 across the equator. While the convergence of these two independent estimates is encouraging and suggests that it is now possible to provide relatively tight constraints for the net air-sea CO2 fluxes at the regional basis, both studies are limited by their lack of consideration of long-term changes in the ocean carbon cycle, such as the recent possible stalling in the expected growth of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.

Drought sensitivity of Amazonian carbon balance revealed by atmospheric measurements

Feedbacks between land carbon pools and climate provide one of the largest sources of uncertainty in our predictions of global climate. Estimates of the sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget to climate anomalies in the tropics and the identification of the mechanisms responsible for feedback effects remain uncertain. The Amazon basin stores a vast amount of carbon, and has experienced increasingly higher temperatures and more frequent floods and droughts over the past two decades. Here we report seasonal and annual carbon balances across the Amazon basin, based on carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide measurements for the anomalously dry and wet years 2010 and 2011, respectively. We find that the Amazon basin lost 0.48 ± 0.18 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C yr−1) during the dry year but was carbon neutral (0.06 ± 0.1 Pg C yr−1) during the wet year. Taking into account carbon losses from fire by using carbon monoxide measurements, we derived the basin net biome exchange (that is, the carbon flux between the non-burned forest and the atmosphere) revealing that during the dry year, vegetation was carbon neutral. During the wet year, vegetation was a net carbon sink of 0.25 ± 0.14 Pg C yr−1, which is roughly consistent with the mean long-term intact-forest biomass sink of 0.39 ± 0.10 Pg C yr−1 previously estimated from forest censuses. Observations from Amazonian forest plots suggest the suppression of photosynthesis during drought as the primary cause for the 2010 sink neutralization. Overall, our results suggest that moisture has an important role in determining the Amazonian carbon balance. If the recent trend of increasing precipitation extremes persists, the Amazon may become an increasing carbon source as a result of both emissions from fires and the suppression of net biome exchange by drought.

Benthic boundary mixing and resuspension induced by internal seiches

The effect of internal seiches on horizontal hypolimnetic bottom currents and on the stationary well-mixed benthic boundary layer (BBL) induced by these currents was studied for 2 weeks in a small prealpine lake using thermistor strings, an acoustic current meter and a CTD (C: conductivity, T: temperature, D: depth) equipped with a transmissometer. 150 profiles of temperature, conductivity and transmissivity taken during two days clearly indicate the existence of a well-mixed BBL 2 to 7 m thick. This is the result of intense mixing in the zone of high shear above the sediment associated with seiching motion. The concentration of suspended or resuspended particles, mainly of organic nature, within the BBL, was 2 to 4 times greater than that measured directly above the BBL. Resuspension is thought to be associated rather with high-frequency burst-like currents with measured speeds ranging up to 7 cm s−1 than with the average bottom current speed of about 2 cm s−1.

A first estimate of present and preindustrial air-sea CO2 flux patterns based on ocean interior carbon measurements and models

[1] The exchange of CO2 across the air-sea interface is a main determinant of the distribution of atmospheric CO2 from which major conclusions about the carbon cycle are drawn, yet our knowledge of atmosphere-ocean fluxes still has major gaps. A new analysis based on recent ocean dissolved inorganic carbon data and on models permits us to separately estimate the preindustrial and present air-sea CO2 flux distributions without requiring knowledge of the gas exchange coefficient. We find a smaller carbon sink at mid to high latitudes of the southern hemisphere than previous data based estimates and a shift of ocean uptake to lower latitude regions compared to estimates and simulations. The total uptake of anthropogenic CO2 for 1990 is 1.8 (±0.4) Pg C yr 1 . Our ocean based results support the interpretation of the latitudinal distribution of atmospheric CO2 data as evidence for a large northern hemisphere land carbon sink. INDEX TERMS: 4806 Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Carbon cycling; 4805 Biogeochemical cycles (1615); 1635 Global Change: Oceans (4203); 4842 Modeling. Citation: Gloor, M., N. Gruber, J.

Markedly divergent estimates of Amazon forest carbon density from ground plots and satellites

Aim The accurate mapping of forest carbon stocks is essential for understanding the global carbon cycle, for assessing emissions from deforestation, and for rational land-use planning. Remote sensing (RS) is currently the key tool for this purpose, but RS does not estimate vegetation biomass directly, and thus may miss significant spatial variations in forest structure. We test the stated accuracy of pantropical carbon maps using a large independent field dataset. Location Tropical forests of the Amazon basin. The permanent archive of the field plot data can be accessed at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5521/FORESTPLOTS.NET/2014_1 Methods Two recent pantropical RS maps of vegetation carbon are compared to a unique ground-plot dataset, involving tree measurements in 413 large inventory plots located in nine countries. The RS maps were compared directly to field plots, and kriging of the field data was used to allow area-based comparisons. Results The two RS carbon maps fail to capture the main gradient in Amazon forest carbon detected using 413 ground plots, from the densely wooded tall forests of the north-east, to the light-wooded, shorter forests of the south-west. The differences between plots and RS maps far exceed the uncertainties given in these studies, with whole regions over- or under-estimated by > 25%, whereas regional uncertainties for the maps were reported to be < 5%. Main conclusions Pantropical biomass maps are widely used by governments and by projects aiming to reduce deforestation using carbon offsets, but may have significant regional biases. Carbon-mapping techniques must be revised to account for the known ecological variation in tree wood density and allometry to create maps suitable for carbon accounting. The use of single relationships between tree canopy height and above-ground biomass inevitably yields large, spatially correlated errors. This presents a significant challenge to both the forest conservation and remote sensing communities, because neither wood density nor species assemblages can be reliably mapped from space.

What is the concentration footprint of a tall tower

Studies that have attempted to estimate sources and sinks of trace gases such as CO2 with inverse calculations unanimously identify the lack of continental stations as a prime obstacle. Continental stations have traditionally been avoided because of the difficulty of interpretation due to large time-variability of trace substance mixing ratios. Large variability is caused by the proximity to the strongly variable sources in space and time and the complicated airflow within the lowermost 100–200 m of the planetary boundary layer. To address the need for continental stations and to overcome the problems associated with them, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory started in 1992 to measure CO2 and other trace gases on tall television transmission towers [Bakwin et al., 1995]. An essential question in connection with these tower measurements is the area around the tower from which fluxes substantially contribute to the observed short-term variability of trace gas mixing ratios. We present here a simple data and back trajectory-based method to estimate the fraction of the observed short-term variability explained by a localized flux around a tall television transmission tower in Wisconsin in dependence of its location relative to the tower (the concentration “footprint”). We find that the timescale over which the imprint of surface fluxes on air parcels before its arrival at the tower are still discernible in the mixing ratio variations observed at the tower is of the order of 1.5 days. Based on this timescale and the characteristics of air parcel trajectories, we infer a spatial extent of the footprint of the order of 106 km2, or roughly a tenth of the area of the United States. This is encouraging evidence that tall tower measurements may be useful in global inversions and may also have implications for monitoring fluxes of anthropogenic trace substances on regional scales.

Optimal sampling of the atmosphere for purpose of inverse modeling: A model study

The 66 stations of the GLOBALVIEW-CO2 sampling network (GLOBALVIEW-CO2: Cooperative Atmospheric Data Integration Project - Carbon Dioxide, (1997)) are located primarily remotely from continents where signals of fossil fuel consumption and biospheric exchange are diluted. It is thus not surprising that inversion studies are able to estimate terrestrial sources and sinks only to a very limited extent. The poor constraint on terrestrial fluxes propagates to the oceans and strongly limits estimates of oceanic fluxes as well, at least if no use is made of other information such as isotopic ratios. We analyze here the resolving power of the GLOBALVIEW-CO2 network, compare the efficiency of different measurement strategies, and determine optimal extensions to the present network. We find the following: (1) GLOBALVIEW-CO2 is well suited to characterize the meridional distribution of sources and sinks but is poorly suited to separate terrestrial from oceanic sinks at the same latitude. The most poorly constrained regions are South America, Africa, and southern hemispheric oceans. (2) To improve the network, observing stations need to be positioned on the continents near to the largest biospheric signals despite the large diurnal and seasonal fluctuations associated with biological activity and the dynamics of the PBL. The mixing in the atmosphere is too strong to allow positioning of stations remote from large fluxes. Our optimization results prove to be fairly insensitive to the details of model transport and the inversion model with the addition of ∼ 10 optimally positioned stations. (3) The best measurement strategy among surface observations, N-S airplane transects, and vertical profiles proves to be vertical profiles. (4) Approximately 12 optimally positioned vertical profiles or 30 surface stations in addition to GLOBALVIEW-CO2 would reduce estimate uncertainties caused by insufficient data coverage from ∼ 1 Pg C yr−1 per region to ∼ 0.2 Pg C yr−1 per region.

Size and frequency of natural forest disturbances and the Amazon forest carbon balance

Forest inventory studies in the Amazon indicate a large terrestrial carbon sink. However, field plots may fail to represent forest mortality processes at landscape-scales of tropical forests. Here we characterize the frequency distribution of disturbance events in natural forests from 0.01 ha to 2,651 ha size throughout Amazonia using a novel combination of forest inventory, airborne lidar and satellite remote sensing data. We find that small-scale mortality events are responsible for aboveground biomass losses of ~1.7 Pg C y−1 over the entire Amazon region. We also find that intermediate-scale disturbances account for losses of ~0.2 Pg C y−1, and that the largest-scale disturbances as a result of blow-downs only account for losses of ~0.004 Pg C y−1. Simulation of growth and mortality indicates that even when all carbon losses from intermediate and large-scale disturbances are considered, these are outweighed by the net biomass accumulation by tree growth, supporting the inference of an Amazon carbon sink.

Air‐sea flux of oxygen estimated from bulk data: Implications For the marine and atmospheric oxygen cycles

We estimate the annual net air-sea fluxes of oxygen for 13 regions on the basis of a steady state inverse modeling technique that is independent of air-sea gas exchange parameterizations. The inverted data consist of the observed oceanic oxygen concentration after a correction has been applied to account for biological cycling. We find that the tropical oceans (13� S-13� N) emit � 212 Tmol O2 yr � 1 , which is compensated by uptake of 148 Tmol yr � 1 in the Northern Hemisphere (>13� N) and by uptake of 65 Tmol yr � 1 in the Southern Hemisphere (<13� S). These results imply that the dominant feature of oxygen transport in the combined ocean- atmosphere system is the existence of a closed circulation cell in each hemisphere. These two cells consist of O2 uptake by the ocean in the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres and transport in the ocean toward the tropics, where O2 is lost to the atmosphere and transported in the atmosphere back toward the poles. We find an asymmetry in the two cells involving O2 uptake in the temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere versus loss of O2 in the temperate regions of the Southern Hemisphere. There is an additional asymmetry between the Atlantic basin, which has a net southward transport at all latitudes north of 36� S, in agreement with independent transport estimates, versus the Indian and Pacific Oceans, which have a strong equatorward transport everywhere. We find that these inverse estimates are relatively insensitive to details in the inversion scheme but are sensitive to biases in the ocean general circulation model that provides the linkage between surface fluxes and ocean interior concentrations. Forward simulations of O2 in an atmospheric tracer transport model using our inversely estimated oxygen fluxes as a boundary condition agree reasonably well with observations of atmospheric potential oxygen (APOO2 +C O2). Our results indicate that the north-south asymmetry in the strength of the two hemispheric cells coupled with a strong asymmetry in fossil fuel emissions can explain much of the observed interhemispheric gradient in APO. Therefore it might not be necessary to invoke the existence of a large southward interhemispheric transport of O2 in the ocean, such as proposed by Stephens et al. (1998). However, we find that uncertainties in the modeled APO distribution stemming from seasonal atmospheric rectification effects and the limited APO data coverage prevent the currently available APO data from providing strong constraints on the magnitude of interhemispheric transport.