Manuel Nathenson

Another look at the calculation of fallout tephra volumes

The calculation of volumes of fallout tephra layers is difficult because of the nonlinear dependence of thickness on area and because of the extrapolations required at the vent and in distal regions. Calculation using the trapezoidal rule, straight lines on log-log plots of area versus thickness, straight lines on plots of log thickness versus area1/2, and the crystal-concentration method are reviewed and the problems with each method discussed. The method using straight lines on plots of log thickness versus area1/2 is the most geologically reasonable because most deposits thin exponentially from source and therefore plot as straight lines using these coordinates. Errors and uncertainties in previous derivations for using this method are discussed and more general formulas presented. The method is also used to gain perspective on the “missing” distal volumes calculated by the crystal-concentration method compared to those calculated based only on isopach data.

Slightly thermal springs and non-thermal springs at Mount Shasta, California: Chemistry and recharge elevations

Temperature measurements, isotopic contents, and dissolved constituents are presented for springs at Mount Shasta to understand slightly thermal springs in the Shasta Valley based on the characteristics of non-thermal springs. Non-thermal springs on Mount Shasta are generally cooler than mean annual air temperatures for their elevation. The specific conductance of non-thermal springs increases linearly with discharge temperature. Springs at higher and intermediate elevations on Mount Shasta have fairly limited circulation paths, whereas low-elevation springs have longer paths because of their higher-elevation recharge. Springs in the Shasta Valley are warmer than air temperatures for their elevation and contain significant amounts of chloride and sulfate, constituents often associated with volcanic hydrothermal systems. Data for the Shasta Valley springs generally define mixing trends for dissolved constituents and temperature. The isotopic composition of the Shasta Valley springs indicates that water fell as precipitation at a higher elevation than any of the non-thermal springs. It is possible that the Shasta Valley springs include a component of the outflow from a proposed 210°C hydrothermal system that boils to supply steam for the summit acid-sulfate spring. In order to categorize springs such as those in the Shasta Valley, we introduce the term slightly thermal springs for springs that do not meet the numerical criterion of 10°C above air temperature for thermal springs but have temperatures greater than non-thermal springs in the area and usually also have dissolved constituents normally found in thermal waters.

The dependence of permeability on effective stress from flow tests at hot dry rock reservoirs at Rosemanowes (Cornwall) and Fenton Hill (New Mexico)

Effective stress is the primary control on permeability and thus on flow and water loss for two-well hot dry rock systems involving injection and production that have been tested to date. Theoretical relations are derived for the flow between an injector and producer, including the dependence of permeability on effective stress. Four relations for permeability as a function of effective stress are used to match field data for the hot dry rock systems at Rosemanowes, Cornwall, and Fenton Hill, New Mexico. The flow and water loss behavior of these systems are well explained by the influence of effective stress on permeability. All four relations for permeability as a function of effective stress are successful in matching the field data, but some have difficulty in determining unique values for elastic and hydrologic parameters.

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14C yr BP). FALL3D model input eruptive parameters are constrained through an inversion method carried out with the semi-analytical HAZMAP model and are varied by sampling them using probability density functions. We analyze the influence of seasonal variations on ash dispersal and estimate the average persistence of critical ash concentrations at relevant locations and airports. This study assesses the impact that a Plinian eruption similar to the Ochre Pumice eruption would have on the main airports of Mexico and adjacent areas. The hazard maps presented here can support long-term planning that would help minimize the impacts of such an eruption on civil aviation.

Chemical and light-stable isotope characteristics of waters from the raft river geothermal area and environs, cassia county, idaho; box elder county, Utah

Abstract Chemical and light-stable isotope data are presented for water samples from the Raft River geothermal area and environs. On the basis of chemical character, as defined by a trilinear plot of per cent milliequivalents, and light-stable isotope data, the waters in the geothermal area can be divided into waters that have and have not mixed with cold water. The non-mixed waters have essentially a constant value of light-stable isotopes but show a large variation in chloride content. The variation of chloride composition is not the usual pattern for deep geothermal waters, where it is normally assumed that the deep water has a single chloride composition. Different mixed waters also have hot-water sources of varying chloride composition. Plots of chloride values on cross-sections show that water circulation patterns are confused, with non-mixed waters having different chloride concentrations located in close proximity. Three models can explain the characteristics of the deep geothermal water: (1) in addition to near-surface mixing of cold and hot water, there is deep mixing of two hot waters with the same enthalpy and isotopic composition but differing chloride concentrations to produce the range of chloride concentrations found in the deep geothermal water; (2) there is a single deep hot water, and the range of chloride concentrations is produced by the water passing through a zone of highly soluble materials (most likely in the sedimentary section above the basement) in which waters have different residence times or slightly different circulation paths; (3) the varying chloride concentrations in space have been caused by varying chloride concentrations in the deep feed water through time. Some of this older water has not been flushed from the system by the natural discharge. Although one model may seem more plausible than the others, the available data do not rule out any of them. Data for water samples from the Raft River and Jim Sage Mountains show that water from these areas is probably the source for the cold mixing water determined from end-members on mixing lines. Data for water samples in the Upper Raft River Valley show that the thermal anomaly found at Almo 1 is probably not related to the Raft River geothermal area. The water is different in type as shown by its placement on a trilinear plot, and the isotopes are different enough to show that it is probably a different water. Isotopic compositions of samples from a wide area around the Raft River geothermal system indicate that the likely source of the recharge water is the southern Albion Mountains and western Raft River Mountains. The recharge area is at one end of the Narrows zone, and the geothermal area is along the Narrows zone; thus it is likely that the Narrows zone defines the circulation path.

Downhole measurements and fluid chemistry of a castle rock steam well, the Geysers, Lake County, California

Abstract Wellbore and reservoir processes in a steam well in the Castle Rock field of The Geysers have been studied by means of down-hole pressure and temperature measurements and analyses of ejected water and steam produced under bleed and full flow. Down-hole measurements show that below a vapor zone there is liquid water in the well in pressure equilibrium with reservoir steam at a depth of 2290 m. The progressive decreases, from 1973 to 1977, of pressure and temperature in the vapor zone indicate that wellbore heat loss is high enough to condense a large fraction of the steam inflow. The chemical composition of water ejected from the well is consistent with an origin from wellbore condensation of steam. Calculations using the differences in gas and isotopic compositions between bleed and full-flow steam show that about half of the full-flow steam originated as liquid water in the reservoir and that about 30% of the steam entering the well under bleed was condensed in the wellbore and drained downward. Heat loss calculations are also consistent with this amount of condensation.