Marc Ross

Development of Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model: Operating Under Hot-Stabilized Conditions

A comprehensive modal emission model for light-duty cars and trucks is being developed. More than 300 real-world vehicles are being recruited for in-house dynamometer testing under as-is conditions to provide the foundation for the model. The model is designed to predict second-by-second tailpipe emissions under a variety of driving conditions. The vehicles can be modeled as individual vehicles with properly functioning, deteriorated, or malfunctioning emission control conditions, or as composite vehicles representing different vehicle technology categories. The model is based on a simple parameterized physical approach and consists of six modules that predict engine power, engine speed, air/fuel ratio, fuel use, engine-out emissions, and catalyst pass fraction. When developing the model, four important vehicle operating conditions are considered: cold and warm starts; normal, stoichiometric operation; high-power enrichment; and lean-burn operation. The model concept and the expected input/output requirements of the model are discussed. The general structure of the model also is presented, focusing on emissions for vehicles operating under hot-stabilized conditions. Preliminary results of the model are given, and comparisons are made between the modeled and measurement results for 17 sample vehicles. Preliminary results show good agreement.

Energy efficiency of China's cement industry

We have studied the cement industry in China to determine the prospects for renovation and for building new facilities during the 1990s, and, in particular, the prospects for improved energy efficiency. The potential is good for renovating most vertical-kiln plants to improve their energy intensity 10–30% while substantially increasing their capacity and reducing pollution, all at los cost. State-of-the-art precalciner kilns offer small energy-efficiency advantages, but important environmental and product-quality advantages over improved vertical kilns. We present three scenarios that differ as to the technology of new plants, emphasizing: (i) high-cost, state-of-the-art precalciner kilns, (ii) moderate-cost advanced vertical kilns, and (iii) low-cost vertical kilns without advanced technology. We discuss the costs, energy intensities, and environmental implications of these three scenarios.

RECENT ADVANCES IN AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY AND THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT

Abstract The potential for improving the fuel economy of conventional, gasoline-powered automobiles through optimized application of recent technology advances is analyzed. Results are presented at three levels of technical certainty, ranging from technologies already in use to technologies facing technical constraints (such as emissions control problems) which might inhibit widespread use. A fleet-aggregate, engineering-economic analysis is used to estimate a range of U.S. new car fleet average fuel economy levels achievable given roughly 10 years of lead time. Technology cost estimates are compared to fuel savings in order to determine likely cost-effective levels of fuel economy, which are found to range from 39 miles per gallon to 51 miles per gallon depending on technology certainty level. The corresponding estimated increases in average new car price range from

Analysis of Modal Emissions From Diverse In-Use Vehicle Fleet

540 to

Industrial energy conservation and the steel industry of the United States

790 (1993

The energy efficiency of the steel industry of China

). Estimated fuel savings payback times average less than 3 years and the cost of conserved energy averages

Real-World Emissions from Conventional Passenger Cars

0.50 per gallon, indicating that these levels of fuel economy improvement are cost-effective over a vehicle lifetime. A vehicle stock turnover model is used to project the reductions in gasoline consumption and associated emissions that would follow if the estimated fuel economy levels are achieved. Potential trade-offs regarding vehicle performance, safety, and emissions are also discussed.

Real-World Emissions from Model Year 1993, 2000, and 2010 Passenger Cars

The initial phase of a long-term project with national implications for the improvement of transportation and air quality is described. The overall objective of the research is to develop and verify a computer model that accurately estimates the impacts of a vehicle’s operating mode on emissions. This model improves on current emission models by allowing for the prediction of how traffic changes affect vehicle emissions. Results are presented that address the following points: vehicle recruitment, preliminary estimates of reproducibility, preliminary estimates of air conditioner effects, and preliminary estimates of changes in emissions relative to speed. As part of the development of a comprehensive modal emission model for light-duty vehicles, 28 distinct vehicle/technology categories have been identified based on vehicle class, emission control technology, fuel system, emission standard level, power-to-weight ratio, and emitter level (i.e., normal versus high emitter). These categories and the sampling proportions in a large-scale emissions testing program (over 300 vehicles to be tested) have been chosen in part based on emissions contribution. As part of the initial model development, a specific modal emissions testing protocol has been developed that reflects both real-world and specific modal events associated with different levels of emissions. This testing protocol has thus far been applied to an initial fleet of 30 vehicles, where at least 1 vehicle falls into each defined vehicle/technology category. The different vehicle/technology categories, the emissions testing protocol, and preliminary analysis that has been performed on the initial vehicle fleet are described.

Improving the efficiency of electricity use in manufacturing.

Energy use in industry, in particular manufacturing, is reviewed. Materials manufacture dominates. Natural gas and electricity are the main energy forms, with coal and oil now almost specialty fuels. Declining energy use per ton of production has characterized materials manufacture, especially since 1972. An in-depth examination of trends and future possibilities in energy use per ton of product is made for the steel industry. Energy use in 1983 is analyzed by stage of production and for the integrated and secondary sectors. Ongoing reductions in energy use by means of technical improvements are discussed for iron making, steel making and shaping-treating. A conservation plan is presented for an integrated mill, which could reduce energy use by 20% and total costs by

An introduction to global warming

12 per ton of mill product. Finally, expectations for changes in steel industry energy intensity in the medium term are very briefly discussed.