John DeCicco

Employment and other macroeconomic benefits of an innovation-led climate strategy for the United States

Abstract Climate protection policy and its analysis are pursued in the context of other societal goals, among them the maintenance of economic growth and high employment. Too often, however, analysis of energy and climate policy does not realistically reflect technological conditions and the dynamics of technological change. This tendency unnecessarily associates the decline in energy consumption or carbon emissions with the decline in national economic output or income. But there is ample prima facie evidence to the contrary. Just as in the 19th century when the perceived need to reduce labor inputs as part of the production process spurred labor-saving technological progress, now the need to reduce energy (and pollution) costs could spur innovation and diffusion of efficient and clean energy technologies. This, in turn, can increase overall growth in economic productivity. Energy technology analysts have identified many such existing and near-term commercial technologies, as well as innovations that can be foreseen beyond the immediate technological horizon, which would become widely used if policies were developed to overcome market and institutional barriers. This paper presents a macroeconomic analysis for a set of policies that would induce the adoption of more efficient and low-carbon technologies, and finds that overall employment and economic output could be increased by small amounts while significantly reducing carbon emissions.

Meeting the energy and climate challenge for transportation in the United States

Mitigating global climate change will require a profound transformation of energy use sectors throughout the world and this challenge is particularly acute for the United States transportation sector. Market forces alone are unlikely to change transportation-energy technologies and infrastructures sufficiently to address the needs for an environmentally sustainable system. A set of policies for encouraging technological advances and promoting sustainable planning, operations, and pricing of transportation services was analysed for its effects on sector energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Baseline projections show US transport sector GHG emissions increasing over the 1990 level 28% by 2010 and 58% by 2030. The combined impacts of the policies analysed would be substantial emission reductions that grow over time, with GHG emissions returned to the 1990 level by 2010 and cut to 35% lower by 2030. Due to fuel savings from technology-based efficiency improvements, it was found that the economic benefits accruing from these reductions would outpace costs almost from the outset.

RECENT ADVANCES IN AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY AND THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT

Abstract The potential for improving the fuel economy of conventional, gasoline-powered automobiles through optimized application of recent technology advances is analyzed. Results are presented at three levels of technical certainty, ranging from technologies already in use to technologies facing technical constraints (such as emissions control problems) which might inhibit widespread use. A fleet-aggregate, engineering-economic analysis is used to estimate a range of U.S. new car fleet average fuel economy levels achievable given roughly 10 years of lead time. Technology cost estimates are compared to fuel savings in order to determine likely cost-effective levels of fuel economy, which are found to range from 39 miles per gallon to 51 miles per gallon depending on technology certainty level. The corresponding estimated increases in average new car price range from

Projected fuel savings and emissions reductions from light-vehicle fuel economy standards

540 to

Environmental concerns regarding electric power transmission in North America

790 (1993

Twenty years after the embargo US oil import dependence and how it can be reduced

). Estimated fuel savings payback times average less than 3 years and the cost of conserved energy averages

INTEGRATED APPROACH TO ENVIRONMENTAL RATING FOR LIGHT VEHICLES

0.50 per gallon, indicating that these levels of fuel economy improvement are cost-effective over a vehicle lifetime. A vehicle stock turnover model is used to project the reductions in gasoline consumption and associated emissions that would follow if the estimated fuel economy levels are achieved. Potential trade-offs regarding vehicle performance, safety, and emissions are also discussed.

NEAR-TERM TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING AUTOMOTIVE EFFICIENCY: A REVIEW AND UPDATE

This study applies a model of motor vehicle stock turnover to estimate the effect of strengthened fuel economy standards on gasoline consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and hydrocarbon emissions by light-duty vehicles in the United States. Without significant policy change, fuel consumption is projected to grow from a 1990 level of 6.3 million barrels per day (Mbd) to 9 Mbd by 2010. Five policy-driven scenarios are analyzed, ranging up to a new vehicle fuel economy improvement rate of 6% per year. For the 6%/yr scenario, the analysis projects gasoline savings of 2.9 Mbd and emissions reductions of 147 million metric tons per year (carbon equivalent) of greenhouse gases and 495,000 metric tons per year of evaporative hydrocarbons by 2010. The sensitivity of the projections to various factors is also examined. The most critical assumption is the baseline (i.e., the extent of fuel economy change in the absence of stronger standards). Other factors examined, such as growth in vehicle miles of travel (VMT), VMT rebound, credits toward regulatory compliance, rollbacks of standards, upper and lower bounds on a percentage increase standard, possible vehicle market shifts and fuel economy shortfall, were found to have smaller effects. Fuel economy standards are projected to be a reliable mechanism for controlling future gasoline consumption and associated pollution emissions in the United States.

A Method for Green Rating of Automobiles

Abstract The electric utilities of North America have become ever more interconnected via transmission facilities, largely to insure reliability. Current policy discussions regarding transmission include calls for improved access, increased capacity, and deregulation to facilitate trade in electric power. From an environmental perspective, two issues have been notably absent in much of the debate: (1) a recognition of the full range of environmental impacts related to electricity transmission; and (2) the potential for end-use efficiency to address the reliability and economy requirements that motivate attention to transmission. This paper broaches these issues, starting with an elaboration of the environmental impacts, which range from global and regional effects to local concerns, including the potential health risks associated with electric and magnetic fields. We emphasize that transmission planning should occur as part of an integrated planning process, in which the environmental and social costs of various options are fully considered. We discuss the potential for end-use efficiency to lessen environmental impacts of both transmission and generation. We conclude that there is a need to ensure that environmental externalities and demand-side alternatives are adequately considered when transmission network expansions are proposed.

Assessing the Fuel Economy Potential of Light-Duty Vehicles

Abstract Oil imports represented about 43% of total US oil consumption in 1993 and oil imports are rapidly rising. Given current policies and trends, US oil imports are projected to cost over US