Marcel Wolbers

Effect of procalcitonin-based guidelines vs standard guidelines on antibiotic use in lower respiratory tract infections: the ProHOSP randomized controlled trial

CONTEXT In previous smaller trials, a procalcitonin (PCT) algorithm reduced antibiotic use in patients with lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs). OBJECTIVE To examine whether a PCT algorithm can reduce antibiotic exposure without increasing the risk for serious adverse outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS A multicenter, noninferiority, randomized controlled trial in emergency departments of 6 tertiary care hospitals in Switzerland with an open intervention of 1359 patients with mostly severe LRTIs randomized between October 2006 and March 2008. INTERVENTION Patients were randomized to administration of antibiotics based on a PCT algorithm with predefined cutoff ranges for initiating or stopping antibiotics (PCT group) or according to standard guidelines (control group). Serum PCT was measured locally in each hospital and instructions were Web-based. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Noninferiority of the composite adverse outcomes of death, intensive care unit admission, disease-specific complications, or recurrent infection requiring antibiotic treatment within 30 days, with a predefined noninferiority boundary of 7.5%; and antibiotic exposure and adverse effects from antibiotics. RESULTS The rate of overall adverse outcomes was similar in the PCT and control groups (15.4% [n = 103] vs 18.9% [n = 130]; difference, -3.5%; 95% CI, -7.6% to 0.4%). The mean duration of antibiotics exposure in the PCT vs control groups was lower in all patients (5.7 vs 8.7 days; relative change, -34.8%; 95% CI, -40.3% to -28.7%) and in the subgroups of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (n = 925, 7.2 vs 10.7 days; -32.4%; 95% CI, -37.6% to -26.9%), exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (n = 228, 2.5 vs 5.1 days; -50.4%; 95% CI, -64.0% to -34.0%), and acute bronchitis (n = 151, 1.0 vs 2.8 days; -65.0%; 95% CI, -84.7% to -37.5%). Antibiotic-associated adverse effects were less frequent in the PCT group (19.8% [n = 133] vs 28.1% [n = 193]; difference, -8.2%; 95% CI, -12.7% to -3.7%). CONCLUSION In patients with LRTIs, a strategy of PCT guidance compared with standard guidelines resulted in similar rates of adverse outcomes, as well as lower rates of antibiotic exposure and antibiotic-associated adverse effects. TRIAL REGISTRATION isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN95122877.

Combination Antifungal Therapy for Cryptococcal Meningitis

BACKGROUND Combination antifungal therapy (amphotericin B deoxycholate and flucytosine) is the recommended treatment for cryptococcal meningitis but has not been shown to reduce mortality, as compared with amphotericin B alone. We performed a randomized, controlled trial to determine whether combining flucytosine or high-dose fluconazole with high-dose amphotericin B improved survival at 14 and 70 days. METHODS We conducted a randomized, three-group, open-label trial of induction therapy for cryptococcal meningitis in patients with human immunodeficiency virus infection. All patients received amphotericin B at a dose of 1 mg per kilogram of body weight per day; patients in group 1 were treated for 4 weeks, and those in groups 2 and 3 for 2 weeks. Patients in group 2 concurrently received flucytosine at a dose of 100 mg per kilogram per day for 2 weeks, and those in group 3 concurrently received fluconazole at a dose of 400 mg twice daily for 2 weeks. RESULTS A total of 299 patients were enrolled. Fewer deaths occurred by days 14 and 70 among patients receiving amphotericin B and flucytosine than among those receiving amphotericin B alone (15 vs. 25 deaths by day 14; hazard ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30 to 1.08; unadjusted P=0.08; and 30 vs. 44 deaths by day 70; hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.97; unadjusted P=0.04). Combination therapy with fluconazole had no significant effect on survival, as compared with monotherapy (hazard ratio for death by 14 days, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.44 to 1.41; P=0.42; hazard ratio for death by 70 days, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.45 to 1.11; P=0.13). Amphotericin B plus flucytosine was associated with significantly increased rates of yeast clearance from cerebrospinal fluid (-0.42 log10 colony-forming units [CFU] per milliliter per day vs. -0.31 and -0.32 log10 CFU per milliliter per day in groups 1 and 3, respectively; P<0.001 for both comparisons). Rates of adverse events were similar in all groups, although neutropenia was more frequent in patients receiving a combination therapy. CONCLUSIONS Amphotericin B plus flucytosine, as compared with amphotericin B alone, is associated with improved survival among patients with cryptococcal meningitis. A survival benefit of amphotericin B plus fluconazole was not found. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and the British Infection Society; Controlled-Trials.com number, ISRCTN95123928.).

Prognostic models with competing risks: methods and application to coronary risk prediction.

Clinical decision-making often relies on a subjects absolute risk of a disease event of interest. However, in a frail population, competing risk events may preclude the occurrence of the event of interest. We review competing-risk regression models with a view toward predictive modeling. We show how measures of prognostic performance (such as calibration and discrimination) can be adapted to the competing-risks setting. An example of coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction in women aged 55–90 years in the Rotterdam study is used to illustrate the proposed methods, and to compare the Fine and Gray regression model to 2 alternative approaches: (1) a standard Cox survival model, which ignores the competing risk of non-CHD death, and (2) a cause-specific hazards model, which combines proportional hazards models for the event of interest and the competing event. The Fine and Gray model and the cause-specific hazards model perform similarly. However, the standard Cox model substantially overestimates 10-year risk of CHD; it classifies 18% of the individuals as high risk (>20%), compared with only 8% according to the Fine and Gray model. We conclude that competing risks have to be considered explicitly in frail populations such as the elderly.

Timing of Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)–Associated Tuberculous Meningitis

BACKGROUND The optimal time to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated tuberculous meningitis is unknown. METHODS We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of immediate versus deferred ART in patients with HIV-associated tuberculous meningitis to determine whether immediate ART reduced the risk of death. Antiretroviral drugs (zidovudine, lamivudine, and efavirenz) were started either at study entry or 2 months after randomization. All patients were treated with standard antituberculosis treatment, adjunctive dexamethasone, and prophylactic co-trimoxazole and were followed up for 12 months. We conducted intention-to-treat, per-protocol, and prespecified subgroup analyses. RESULTS A total of 253 patients were randomized, 127 in the immediate ART group and 126 in the deferred ART group; 76 and 70 patients died within 9 months in the immediate and deferred ART groups, respectively. Immediate ART was not significantly associated with 9-month mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI], .81-1.55; P = .50) or the time to new AIDS events or death (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, .87-1.55; P = .31). The percentage of patients with severe (grade 3 or 4) adverse events was high in both arms (90% in the immediate ART group and 89% in the deferred ART group; P = .84), but there were significantly more grade 4 adverse events in the immediate ART arm (102 in the immediate ART group vs 87 in the deferred ART group; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS Immediate ART initiation does not improve outcome in patients presenting with HIV-associated tuberculous meningitis. There were significantly more grade 4 adverse events in the immediate ART arm, supporting delayed initiation of ART in HIV-associated tuberculous meningitis. Clinical Trials Registration. ISRCTN63659091.

Prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease in HIV‐infected patients over time: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Metabolic changes caused by antiretroviral therapy (ART) may increase the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We evaluated changes in the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) and 10‐year risk of CHD in a large cohort of HIV‐infected individuals.

Host and viral features of human dengue cases shape the population of infected and infectious Aedes aegypti mosquitoes

Dengue is the most prevalent arboviral disease of humans. The host and virus variables associated with dengue virus (DENV) transmission from symptomatic dengue cases (n = 208) to Aedes aegypti mosquitoes during 407 independent exposure events was defined. The 50% mosquito infectious dose for each of DENV-1–4 ranged from 6.29 to 7.52 log10 RNA copies/mL of plasma. Increasing day of illness, declining viremia, and rising antibody titers were independently associated with reduced risk of DENV transmission. High early DENV plasma viremia levels in patients were a marker of the duration of human infectiousness, and blood meals containing high concentrations of DENV were positively associated with the prevalence of infectious mosquitoes 14 d after blood feeding. Ambulatory dengue cases had lower viremia levels compared with hospitalized dengue cases but nonetheless at levels predicted to be infectious to mosquitoes. These data define serotype-specific viremia levels that vaccines or drugs must inhibit to prevent DENV transmission.

Competing risks and the clinical community: irrelevance or ignorance?

Life expectancy has dramatically increased in industrialized nations over the last 200 hundred years. The aging of populations carries over to clinical research and leads to an increasing representation of elderly and multimorbid individuals in study populations. Clinical research in these populations is complicated by the fact that individuals are likely to experience several potential disease endpoints that prevent some disease-specific endpoint of interest from occurrence. Large developments in competing risks methodology have been achieved over the last decades, but we assume that recognition of competing risks in the clinical community is still marginal. It is the aim of this article to address translational aspects of competing risks to the clinical community. We describe clinical populations where competing risks issues may arise. We then discuss the importance of agreement between the competing risks methodology and the study aim, in particular the distinction between etiologic and prognostic research questions. In a review of 50 clinical studies performed in individuals susceptible to competing risks published in high-impact clinical journals, we found competing risks issues in 70% of all articles. Better recognition of issues related to competing risks and of statistical methods that deal with competing risks in accordance with the aim of the study is needed. Copyright

Delayed diagnosis of HIV infection and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

To investigate delayed HIV diagnosis and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Prohormones for prediction of adverse medical outcome in community-acquired pneumonia and lower respiratory tract infections

IntroductionMeasurement of prohormones representing different pathophysiological pathways could enhance risk stratification in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and other lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI).MethodsWe assessed clinical parameters and five biomarkers, the precursor levels of adrenomedullin (ADM), endothelin-1 (ET1), atrial-natriuretic peptide (ANP), anti-diuretic hormone (copeptin), and procalcitonin in patients with LRTI and CAP enrolled in the multicenter ProHOSP study. We compared the prognostic accuracy of these biomarkers with the pneumonia severity index (PSI) and CURB65 (Confusion, Urea, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, Age 65) score to predict serious complications defined as death, ICU admission and disease-specific complications using receiver operating curves (ROC) and reclassification methods.ResultsDuring the 30 days of follow-up, 134 serious complications occurred in 925 (14.5%) patients with CAP. Both PSI and CURB65 overestimated the observed mortality (X2 goodness of fit test: P = 0.003 and 0.01). ProADM or proET1 alone had stronger discriminatory powers than the PSI or CURB65 score or any of either score components to predict serious complications. Adding proADM alone (or all five biomarkers jointly) to the PSI and CURB65 scores, significantly increased the area under the curve (AUC) for PSI from 0.69 to 0.75, and for CURB65 from 0.66 to 0.73 (P < 0.001, for both scores). Reclassification methods also established highly significant improvement (P < 0.001) for models with biomarkers if clinical covariates were more flexibly adjusted for. The developed prediction models with biomarkers extrapolated well if evaluated in 434 patients with non-CAP LRTIs.ConclusionsFive biomarkers from distinct biologic pathways were strong and specific predictors for short-term adverse outcome and improved clinical risk scores in CAP and non-pneumonic LRTI. Intervention studies are warranted to show whether an improved risk prognostication with biomarkers translates into a better clinical management and superior allocation of health care resources.Trial RegistrationNCT00350987.

Death Without Prior Appropriate Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Therapy A Competing Risk Study

Background— Implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) improve survival in selected patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction in randomized trials. Competing death without prior appropriate ICD therapy might preclude benefit from ICD implantation in a less selected routine-care population. Methods and Results— We selected all patients with ischemic or dilated cardiomyopathy with an ICD implanted for primary or secondary prevention from a single-center prospective registry between 1994 and 2006. The end point was time to first appropriate ICD therapy/confirmed ventricular fibrillation or death without prior appropriate ICD therapy. We analyzed cumulative incidence functions and used competing risk regression to study predictors of appropriate ICD therapy or prior death. In 442 patients, 73 deaths occurred during a median follow-up of 3.6 years (maximum, 12.7 years). The cumulative incidence of first appropriate ICD therapy until year 7 was 52%, whereas 11% died without prior ICD therapy. The cumulative incidence of appropriate ICD therapy for ventricular fibrillation was 13%, whereas 23% died without prior therapy for ventricular fibrillation. Appropriate ICD therapy was twice as likely in secondary prevention compared with primary prevention, whereas death rates before ICD therapy were similar in both groups. Diuretic use for heart failure compared with nonuse predicted a 4-fold-increased risk of death prior to ICD therapy, although the incidence of appropriate ICD therapy was similar in both groups. Conclusion— In a contemporary ICD population, the risk of death without prior appropriate ICD therapy is substantial, especially in patients with advanced heart failure.