Marcelo M. Rivadeneira

The use of sighting records to infer species extinctions: an evaluation of different methods

In the absence of long-term monitoring data, inferences about extinctions of species and populations are generally based on past observations about the presence of a particular species at specified places and times (sightings). Several methods have been developed to estimate the probability and timing of extinctions from records of such sightings, but they differ in their computational complexity and assumptions about the nature of the sighting record. Here we use simulations to evaluate the performance of seven methods proposed to estimate the upper confidence limit on extinction times under different extinction and sampling scenarios. Our results show that the ability of existing methods to correctly estimate the timing of extinctions varies with the type of extinction (sudden vs. gradual) and the nature of sampling effort over time. When the probability of sampling a species declines over time, many of the methods perform poorly. On the other hand, the simulation results also suggest that as long as the choice of the method is determined by the nature of the underlying sighting data, existing methods should provide reliable inferences about the timing of past extinctions.

Selective extinction of late Neogene bivalves on the temperate Pacific coast of South America

Abstract We assessed selective extinction patterns in bivalves during a late Neogene mass extinction event observed along the temperate Pacific coast of South America. The analysis of 99 late Neogene and Quaternary fossil sites (recorded from 7°S to 55°S), yielding ∼2800 occurrences and 118 species, revealed an abrupt decline in Lyellian percentages during the late Neogene–Pleistocene, suggesting the existence of a mass extinction that decimated ∼66% of the original assemblage. Using the late Neogene data set (n = 59 species, 1346 occurrences), we tested whether the extinction was nonrandom according to taxonomic structure, life habit, geographic range, and body size. Our results showed that the number of higher taxa that went extinct was not different than expected by random. At first sight, extinction was selective only according to life habit and geographic range. Nevertheless, when phylogenetic effects were accounted for, body size also showed significant selectivity. In general, epifaunal, small-sized (after phylogenetic correction), and short-ranged species tended to have increased probability of extinction. This is verified by strong interactions between the variables herein analyzed, suggesting the existence of nonlinear effects on extinction chances. In the heavily decimated epifaunal forms, survival was not enhanced by widespread ranges or larger body sizes. Conversely, the widespread and large-sized infaunal forms tended to have lower probability of extinction. Overall, the ultimate extinction of late Neogene bivalve species along the Pacific coast of South America seems to have been determined by a complex interplay of ecological and historical (phylogenetic) effects.

Rise and fall in diversity of Neogene marine vertebrates on the temperate Pacific coast of South America

Abstract Even though Neogene outcrops along the temperate Pacific coast of South America harbor a rich marine vertebrate fossil record, no studies have examined the diversification patterns of these taxa. Here, we analyze diversification trends based on the stratigraphic ranges of 86 genera of marine vertebrates, including sharks, rays, chimaeras, marine mammals, and seabirds. The richness of genera shows a hump-shaped trend, with maximum values around the late Miocene, driven by a large pulse of origination during mid-Miocene and higher extinction rates during the Pliocene. Trends varied markedly among taxa and departed largely from expectations based on global diversification patterns. Moreover, these trends cannot be explained solely as a sampling artifact derived from sampling intensity (i.e., number of occurrences) or sedimentary rock availably (i.e., number of geologic maps). A large fraction of genera (42%) went globally extinct by the late Pliocene–Pleistocene, and the extinction was highly selective according to different ecological and life-history traits. An analysis using “randomForest” showed that taxonomic structure and the geographic midpoint of distribution could explain up to 83% of extinction of genera. The extinction was taxonomically clumped (i.e., disproportionally high in Cetacea and very low in Carcharhiniformes) and concentrated in the northern area of the temperate Pacific coast of South America. Our results suggest that the particular paleogeographic, paleoclimatic, and paleoceanographic events that took place during the Neogene along the temperate Pacific coast of South America had a significant effect on the structure of marine biodiversity.

The modulating role of traits on the biogeographic dynamics of chondrichthyans from the Neogene to the present

Abstract. The environmental transformations that occurred during the Neogene had profound effects on spatiotemporal biodiversity patterns, yet the modulating role of traits (i.e., physiological, ecological, and life-history traits) remains little understood. We tested this idea using the Neogene fossil record of chondrichthyans along the temperate Pacific coast of South America (TPSA). Information for georeferenced occurrences and ecological and life-history information of 38 chondrichthyan fossil genera in 42 Neogene sites was collected. Global georeferenced records were used to estimate present-day biogeographic distributions of the genera and to characterize the range of oceanographic conditions in which each genus lives as a proxy of their realized niche. Biogeographic range shifts (Neogene-present) were evaluated at regional and local scales. The role of traits as drivers of different range dynamics was evaluated using random forest models. The magnitude and direction of biogeographic range shifts were different at both spatial scales. At a regional scale, 34% of genera contracted their ranges, disappearing from the TPSA. At a local scale, a similar proportion of genera expanded and contracted their southern endpoints of distribution. The models showed a high precision at both spatial scales of analyses, but the relative importance of predictor variables differed. At a regional scale, disappearing genera tended to have a higher tolerance to salinity, lower sea surface temperature (SST) range, and smaller body sizes. At a local scale, genera contracting their ranges tended to live at greater depths, tolerate lower levels of primary productivity, and show a reduced tolerance to higher and lower SST ranges. The magnitude and direction of the changes in the range distribution were scale dependent and variable across the genera. Hence, multiple environmental exogenous factors interacted with taxon traits during the Neogene, creating a mosaic of biogeographic dynamics.