Marcio José Vargas da Cruz

Foreign direct investment and industrialization in Brazil

This paper analyses the role of the foreign direct investment - FDI, in the industrialization process of Brazilian economy between 1860 and 1980. The reference for the division the period was the proposal by Tavares (1975) and Mello (1982): Growth with industrial activity diversification (1860-1933); Restrict industrialization (1933-1955) and 3. Heavy industrialization (1955-1980). The research demonstrate that to comprehend the behavior of the FDI, its necessary to considerate the domestic and foreign conditions, as the proposal by Possas (1983).

Efeitos do câmbio e juros sobre as exportações da indústria brasileira

Since the middle of the 80s, Brazil is facing a process of industry participation loss as a percentage in GDP and in the economy total employment. This phenomenon can be characterized as a deindustrialization process. Some elements such as increase in produtitivity, statistical illusion, and demand have been pointed out as being responsible for this process. In recent years the exchange and interest rates have had a crucial role in this process.. Because the exchange rate has an influence on the productive sector by the changes it exerts on the exports and imports level, it would be expected that these two sectors of the economy have been passing through important transformations in the last years as a consequence of the Brazilian exchange rate decrease. Following OECD methodology for industrial production segmentation, the present study have separated the industrial exports sector in intensive in: 1) natural resources; 2) labor; 3) scale; 4) differentiation; and 5) science. The main objective of the present study is to analyze the impact of the exchange and interest rates on the relative participation of the above mentioned industrial export segments between the 2002-2006 period of time.

How significant is Africa's demographic dividend for its future growth and poverty reduction ?

Africa will be undergoing substantial demographic changes in the coming decades with the rising working age share of its population. The opportunity of African countries to convert these changes into demographic dividends for growth and poverty reduction will depend on several factors. The outlook will likely be good if African countries can continue the gains already made under better institutions and policies, particularly those affecting the productivity of labor, such as educational outcomes. If African countries can continue to build on the hard-won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11 to 15 percent of gross domestic product volume growth by 2030, while accounting for 40 to 60 million fewer poor in 2030. The gains can become much more substantial with even better educational outcomes that allow African countries to catch up to other developing countries. If the skill share of Africas labor supply doubles because of improvements in educational attainment, from 25 to about 50 percent between 2011 and 30, then the demographic dividends can expand the regional economy additionally by 22 percent by 2030 relative to the base case and reduce poverty by an additional 51 million people.

Beyond the Income Effect: Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs on Private Investments in Human Capital

In the past decade, conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs have become an important component of social policy in developing countries. While the impacts of these programs have been well researched with respect to their effectiveness to achieve intended outcomes, less is known about their impact on private expenditure decisions. This aspect has great policy relevance since changes in private household expenditures can either support or counteract the aim of the programs. This essay investigates the impact of a CCT program on private household expenditure decisions in nutrition, health and education which are seen as principal contributors to child human capital. First, household expenditure behavior under a CCT program is discussed based on Heckmans model on the technology of skill formation as a conceptual framework. The paper shows how intra-household preferences and perceptions on the substitutability or complementarity of investments can impact household resource allocation decisions. Subsequently, the theoretical implications are tested in the context of the Brazilian CCT program Bolsa Familia, using the Brazilian household expenditure survey. Evidence is found that households increase their private expenditure in food and education disproportionally to the amount of cash transfer, that is, more than would be expected when considering the Engel curves of the expenditures under question.

Investimento direto externo no Brasil: uma análise para o período de alta inflação

This is a study about exchange crisis in the beginning of Republic. Is shows the relation between credit expansion and mil-reis overshooting. Furtado´s analysis is incorrect to explain this event. This paper concludes the capital account adverse behavior

Dar o peixe e ensinar a pescar: racionalidade limitada e políticas de combate à pobreza

This paper discusses the implications of the assumption that economic agents at the receiving end of poverty reduction policies have bounded rationality. It assumes that the beneficiary of the program knows best how to use his or her income to satisfy his or her needs. This, however, does not imply that an optimal solution is reached. Individuals, especially those on very low-incomes, can make better choices as more and better information becomes available, improving their decision-making capabilities in favor of higher income alternatives that can be brought about by their own work efforts. These insights are in turn applied to study the case of the Brazilian program Bolsa Familia, implying that the design and implementation of poverty reduction policies need re-thinking in terms of their long term social efficiency.

Labor adjustment costs across sectors and regions

This paper estimates the mobility costs of workers across sectors and regions in a large sample of developing countries. The paper develops a new methodology that uses cross-sectional data only. This is motivated by the fact that panel data typically are not available for most developing countries. The results suggest that, on average, sector mobility costs are higher than regional mobility costs. The costs of moving across sectors and regions are higher than the costs of moving across only sectors or only regions. In poorer countries, workers face higher mobility costs. The paper provides evidence suggesting that mobility costs, particularly across sectors, are partially driven by information assimetries and access to the Internet can mitigate these costs.

Online exports and the wage gap

The development of the Internet is often seen as a source of demand for skilled workers and therefore a potential driver of the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers. This paper focuses on the impact that international trade in online platforms has on the wage gap. Because online trade allows smaller firms with relatively more unskilled workers to access world markets it can be expected a priori that an expansion of online exports reduces the wage gap. After correcting for potential endogeneity bias in a sample of 22 developing countries for which online trade and wage gap data can be matched, the study finds that a 1 percent increase in the share of online exports over GDP leads to a 0.01 percent decline in the wage gap.

Global Inequality in a More Educated World

In developing countries, younger and better-educated cohorts are entering the workforce. This developing world-led education wave is altering the skill composition of the global labor supply, and impacting income distribution, at the national and global levels. This paper analyzes how this education wave reshapes global inequality over the long run using a general-equilibrium macro-micro simulation framework that covers harmonized household surveys representing almost 90 percent of the world population. The findings under alternative assumptions suggest that global income inequality will likely decrease by 2030. This increasing educated labor force will contribute to the closing of the gap in average incomes between developing and high income countries. The forthcoming education wave would also minimize, mainly for developing countries, potential further increases of within-country inequality.

Demographic Change and Development: Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology

Demographic change can be a positive contributor to development at any stage of demographic transition. This paper revisits the literature on the determinants and economic impacts of demographic change, and presents a new global typology that classifies countries into four categories based on demographic characteristics and future development potential. In the first group are high-fertility, low-income countries that are lagging in many human development indicators. In the second group are mostly low- and lower-middle-income countries where fertility rates have started falling recently and where changes in age structure offer tremendous opportunity for growth in the near future. The third group comprises mostly upper-middle-income countries that experienced rapid fertility declines in the 1960s, and where working age people will be a shrinking share of the population in the coming decade. The last group is made up of mostly high-income countries that have some of the highest shares of elderly in the world, and below-replacement fertility rates since at least the 1980s. The typology helps identify development policy priorities for countries in different stages of demographic transition, and opportunities through globalization due to demographic differences between countries.