Marco Bindi

Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy

Abstract This paper reviews the knowledge on effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Europe and the consequences for policy and research. Warming is expected to lead to a northward expansion of suitable cropping areas and a reduction of the growing period of determinate crops (e.g. cereals), but an increase for indeterminate crops (e.g. root crops). Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will directly enhance plant productivity and also increase resource use efficiencies. In northern areas climate change may produce positive effects on agriculture through introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. Disadvantages may be an increase in the need for plant protection, the risk of nutrient leaching and the turnover of soil organic matter. In southern areas the disadvantages will predominate. The possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification in the Mediterranean and southeastern parts of Europe. Policy will have to support the adaptation of European agriculture to climate change by encouraging the flexibility of land use, crop production, farming systems etc. In doing so, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture, and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and social functions in different European regions. Policy will also need to be concerned with agricultural strategies to mitigate climate change through a reduction in emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, an increase in carbon sequestration in agricultural soils and the growing of energy crops to substitute fossil energy use. The policies to support adaptation and mitigation to climate change will need to be linked closely to the development of agri-environmental schemes in the European Union Common Agricultural Policy. Research will have further to deal with the effect on secondary factors of agricultural production, on the quality of crop and animal production, of changes in frequency of isolated and extreme weather events on agricultural production, and the interaction with the surrounding natural ecosystems. There is also a need to study combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies, and include assessments of the consequences on current efforts in agricultural policy to develop a sustainable agriculture that also preserves environmental and social values in the rural society.

Responses of Agricultural Crops to Free-Air CO2 Enrichment

Over the past decade, free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments have been conducted on several agricultural crops: wheat(Triticum aestivum L.), perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne), and rice(Oryza sativa L.) which are C3 grasses; sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Möench), a C4 grass; white clover (Trifolium repens), a C3 legume; potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), a C3 forb with tuber storage; and cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) and grape (Vitis vinifera L.) which are C3 woody perennials. Using reports from these experiments, the relative responses of these crops was discussed with regard to photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, canopy temperature, water use, water potential, leaf area index, shoot and root biomass accumulation, agricultural yield, radiation use efficiency, specific leaf area, tissue nitrogen concentration, nitrogen yield, carbohydrate concentration, phenology, soil microbiology, soil respiration, trace gas emissions, and soil carbon sequestration. Generally, the magnitude of these responses varied with the functional type of plant and with the soil nitrogen and water status. As expected, the elevated CO2 increased photosynthesis and biomass production and yield substantially in C3 species, but little in C4, and it decreased stomatal conductance and transpiration in both C3 and C4 species and greatly improved water-use efficiency in all the crops. Growth stimulations were as large or larger under water-stress compared to well-watered conditions. Growth stimulations of non-legumes were reduced at low soil nitrogen, whereas elevated CO2 strongly stimulated the growth of the clover legume both at ample and under low N conditions. Roots were generally stimulated more than shoots. Woody perennials had larger growth responses to elevated CO2, while at the same time, their reductions in stomatal conductance were smaller. Tissue nitrogen concentrations went down while carbohydrate and some other carbon-based compounds went up due to elevated CO2, with leaves and foliage affected more than other organs. Phenology was accelerated slightly in most but not all species. Elevated CO2 affected some soil microbes greatly but not others, yet overall activity appears to be stimulated. Detection of statistically significant changes in soil organic carbon in any one study was impossible, yet combining results from several sites and years, it appears that elevated CO2 did increase sequestration of soil carbon. Whenever possible, comparisons were made between the FACE results and those from prior chamber-based experiments reviewed in the literature. Over all the data and parameters considered in this review, there are only two parameters for which the FACE- and chamber-based data appear to be inconsistent. One is that elevated CO2 from FACE appears to reduce stomatal conductance about one and a half times more than observed in prior chamber experiments. Similarly, elevated CO2 appears to have stimulated root growth relatively more than shoot growth under FACE conditions compared to chamber conditions. Nevertheless, for the most part, the FACE- and chamber-based results have been consistent, which gives confidence that conclusions drawn from both types of data are accurate. However, the more realistic FACE environment and the larger plot size have enabled more extensive robust multidisciplinary data sets to be obtained under conditions representative of open fields in the future high-CO2 world.

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Agriculture and Forestry in the Temperate Regions: Europe

Agriculture and forestry will be particularly sensitive to changes in mean climate and climate variability in the northern and southern regions of Europe. Agriculture may be positively affected by climate change in the northern areas through the introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. The disadvantages may be determined by an increase in need for plant protection, risk of nutrient leaching and accelerated breakdown of soil organic matter. In the southern areas the benefits of the projected climate change will be limited, while the disadvantages will be predominant. The increased water use efficiency caused by increasing CO2 will compensate for some of the negative effects of increasing water limitation and extreme weather events, but lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and reduction in suitable areas of traditional crops are expected for these areas. Forestry in the Mediterranean region may be mainly affected by increases in drought and forest fires. In northern Europe, the increased precipitation is expected to be large enough to compensate for the increased evapotranspiration. On the other hand, however, increased precipitation, cloudiness and rain days and the reduced duration of snow cover and soil frost may negatively affect forest work and timber logging determining lower profitability of forest production and a decrease in recreational possibilities. Adaptation management strategies should be introduced, as effective tools, to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural and forestry sectors.

Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) : II. Growth and quality of grape and wine in response to elevated CO2 concentrations

Abstract A FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment) experiment was carried out on Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in 1996 and 1997 in an existing vineyard in Italy. Four FACE arrays were used to fumigate adults plants, while two arrays were used as control. Three CO2 exposure levels were used in these arrays (ambient, 550 and 700 μmol mol−1). Dynamics of vegetative and reproductive biomass and grape quality compounds (sugar and acid concentrations) were monitored during the two growing seasons. Chemical analyses of the main wine quality compounds were made after fermentations. Elevated atmospheric CO2 levels had a significant effect on biomass components (total and fruit dry weight) with increases that ranged from 40 to 45% in the 550 μmol mol−1 treatment and from 45 to 50% in 700 μmol mol−1 treatment. Acid and sugar contents were also stimulated by rising CO2 levels up to a maximum increase in the middle of the ripening season (8–14%); however, as the grapes reached the maturity stage the CO2 effect on both quality parameters almost completely disappeared. Wine quality was not significantly affected by elevated CO2. Furthermore, no significant differences were detectable among the plants grown in the two enriched treatments (550 and 700 μmol mol−1), and the effects of elevated CO2 concentration were similar in the two growing seasons. The absence of any further stimulation of the highest CO2 treatment (700 μmol mol−1) on grapevine growth and yield quality (i.e. grapes and wine) may be explained as a result of transport and/or sink limitations. We can conclude that the expected rise in CO2 concentrations may strongly stimulate grapevine production without causing negative repercussions on quality of grapes and wine.

Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change

This research simulates the impact of climate change on the distribution of the most important European wine regions using a comprehensive suite of spatially informative layers, including bioclimatic indices and water deficit, as predictor variables. More specifically, a machine learning approach (Random Forest, RF) was first calibrated for the present period and applied to future climate conditions as simulated by HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) to predict the possible spatial expansion and/or shift in potential grapevine cultivated area in 2020 and 2050 under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Projected changes in climate depicted by the GCM and SRES scenarios results in a progressive warming in all bioclimatic indices as well as increasing water deficit over the European domain, altering the climatic profile of each of the grapevine cultivated areas. The two main responses to these warmer and drier conditions are 1) progressive shifts of existing grapevine cultivated area to the north–northwest of their original ranges, and 2) expansion or contraction of the wine regions due to changes in within region suitability for grapevine cultivation. Wine regions with climatic conditions from the Mediterranean basin today (e.g., the Languedoc, Provence, Côtes Rhône Méridionales, etc.) were shown to potentially shift the most over time. Overall the results show the potential for a dramatic change in the landscape for winegrape production in Europe due to changes in climate.

THE EFFECT OF FREE AIR CARBON DIOXIDE ENRICHMENT (FACE) AND SOIL NITROGEN AVAILABILITY ON THE PHOTOSYNTHETIC CAPACITY OF WHEAT

A simple system for free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) was recently developed and it is here briefly described. Such a MiniFACE system allowed the elevation of CO2 concentration of small field plots avoiding the occurrence of large spatial and temporal fluctuations. A CO2 enrichment field experiment was conducted in Italy in the season 1993–1994 with wheat (cv. Super-dwarf Mercia). A randomized experimental design was used with the treatment combination CO2 × soil N, replicated twice. Gas exchange measurements showed that photosynthetic capacity was significantly decreased in plants exposed to elevated CO2 and grown under nitrogen deficiency. Photosynthetic acclimation was, in this case, due to the occurrence of reduced rates of rubP saturated and rubP regeneration limited photosynthesis. Gas exchange measurements did not instead reveal any significant effect of elevated CO2 on the photosynthetic capacity of leaves of plants well fertilized with nitrogen, in spite of a transitory negative effect on rubP regeneration limited photosynthesis that was detected to occur in the central part of a day with high irradiance. It is concluded that the levels of nitrogen fertilization will play a substantial role in modulating CO2 fertilization effects on growth and yields of wheat crops under the scenario of future climate change.

Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations.

Effects of elevated carbon dioxide and ozone on potato tuber quality in the European multiple-site experiment 'CHIP-project'

Abstract Potato (Solanum tuberosum L cv. Bintje) was exposed to ambient and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), to ambient and elevated ozone (O3) and to elevated levels of both gases during two growing seasons, 1998 and 1999. Experiments in open-top chambers (OTC) were carried out in Finland, Sweden, Ireland, United Kingdom, Germany and Belgium and a FACE (Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment) experiment was carried out in Italy. In OTCs the plants were grown under ambient CO2 concentrations or with 550 and 680 μl l−1 CO2 alone or in combination with ambient or elevated O3 concentrations (target seasonal mean of 60 nl l−1 8 h per day). In the FACE systems the plants were exposed to ambient or 550 μl l−1 CO2. In the OTC experiments the reducing sugar content of potato tubers decreased significantly with increased concentration of O3. The starch content of potato tubers decreased, with negative impact on tuber quality, but the ascorbic acid concentration increased as a function of the AOT40 (The sum of the differences between hourly ozone concentration and 40 nl l−1 for each hour when the concentration exceeds 40 nl l−1 during a relevant growing season). However, simultaneous exposure to elevated CO2 counteracted the ozone effect. With increase in the CO2 exposure, glycoalkaloid and nitrate concentrations decreased yielding improved quality, while the citric acid concentration decreased causing a higher risk for discoloration after cooking. The amount of dry matter and starch increased significantly in the FACE experiment.

Sensitivities of crop models to extreme weather conditions during flowering period demonstrated for maize and winter wheat in Austria

The objective of the present study was to compare the performance of seven different, widely applied crop models in predicting heat and drought stress effects. The study was part of a recent suite of model inter-comparisons initiated at European level and constitutes a component that has been lacking in the analysis of sources of uncertainties in crop models used to study the impacts of climate change. There was a specific focus on the sensitivity of models for winter wheat and maize to extreme weather conditions (heat and drought) during the short but critical period of 2 weeks after the start of flowering. Two locations in Austria, representing different agro-climatic zones and soil conditions, were included in the simulations over 2 years, 2003 and 2004, exhibiting contrasting weather conditions. In addition, soil management was modified at both sites by following either ploughing or minimum tillage. Since no comprehensive field experimental data sets were available, a relative comparison of simulated grain yields and soil moisture contents under defined weather scenarios with modified temperatures and precipitation was performed for a 2-week period after flowering. The results may help to reduce the uncertainty of simulated crop yields to extreme weather conditions through better understanding of the models’ behaviour. Although the crop models considered (DSSAT, EPIC, WOFOST, AQUACROP, FASSET, HERMES and CROPSYST) mostly showed similar trends in simulated grain yields for the different weather scenarios, it was obvious that heat and drought stress caused by changes in temperature and/or precipitation for a short period of 2 weeks resulted in different grain yields simulated by different models. The present study also revealed that the models responded differently to changes in soil tillage practices, which affected soil water storage capacity.

Growth and marketable-yield responses of potato to increased CO2 and ozone

Central to the CHanging climate and potential Impacts on Potato yield and quality project (CHIP) was the consideration of the potential impacts of ozone and CO2 on growth and yield of future European Potato crops. Potato crops, cv. Bintje, were exposed to ambient or elevated ozone; targeted daily average, 60 nl l−1 for 8 h, and ambient or elevated CO2; targeted 680 μl l−1 averaged over the full growing season, in open top chambers (OTCs) at six European sites in 1998 and 1999, or to elevated CO2 (550 μl l−1) in Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment facilities (FACE) at two sites in both years. Some OTC experiments included 550 μl l−1. Above and below ground biomass were measured at two destructive harvests; at maximum leaf area (MLA) and at final-harvest. Final-harvest fresh weight yields of marketable-size tubers, >35 mm diameter, from ambient conditions ranged from 1 to 12 kg m−2. There was no consistent (P>0.1) CO2×O3 interaction for growth or yield variables at either harvest. No consistent effects of ozone were detected at the maximum-leaf-area harvest. However, at final harvest, ozone had reduced both above-ground biomass and tuber dry weight (P 50 mm) size class. These yield losses showed linear relationships both with accumulated ozone exposure; AOT40 expressed as nl l−1 h over 40 nl l−1, and with yields from chambered ambient-ozone treatments (P<0.05) but, because of partial confounding between the treatment AOT40s and the ambient-ozone yields in the data, the two relationships were not completely independent. Yields from ambient-ozone treatments, however, explained a significant (P<0.01) amount of the residual variation in ozone effects unexplained by AOT40. When averaged over all experiments, mean dry weights and tuber numbers from both harvests were increased by elevated CO2. Only green leaf number at the MLA harvest was reduced. The CO2 responses varied between sites and years. For marketable-size tubers, this variation was unrelated to variation in ambient-CO2 treatment yields. Yield increases resulting from the 680 μl l−1 and 550 μl l−1 treatments were similar. Thus elevating [CO2] from 550 to 680 μl l−1 was less effective than elevating [CO2] from ambient to 550 μl l−1. On average, CO2 elevation to 680 μl l−1 increased the dry weight of marketable-size tubers by about 17%, which far exceeded the average ozone-induced yield loss of about 5%. The net effect of raising CO2 and O3 concentrations on the European potato crop would be an increase marketable yield.