Marcos Robles

Simulating the impact of policy changes in Mexico's PROGRESA/Oportunidades

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes are being widely used in developing countries to reduce poverty and enhance childrens human capital. Researchers have generally relied on ex-ante evaluation models to fine-tune existing CCTs or to design new ones. One of the main pitfalls is ‘targeted modelling’, in which results of counterfactual simulations might be driven by model features rather than the policy objectives. This paper uses the ex-ante evaluation technique of Bourguignon et al., relaxes one of its assumptions, and simulates policy changes at the national level for the Mexican CCT. The models result are in line with information from the national household survey, and counterfactual simulations indicate that overall school attendance can increase without additional budget.

Non-parametric analysis of poverty duration using repeated cross section: an application for Peru

ABSTRACT Using repeated cross-section annual data for Peru spanning 2002–2011 and non-parametric duration analysis, our estimates support the hypothesis that both stay in and exit from poverty (non-poverty) depends on the duration and sequence of poverty (non-poverty) spells. We find that longer periods in poverty reduce the probability of leaving poverty and, conversely, longer periods spent out of poverty reduce the chance of falling back into poverty. Also, we show that, at least in the last decade (of high economic growth), the probability of staying in poverty was lower than staying in non-poverty and the probability of re-entering in poverty was higher than re-entering in non-poverty, being both differences growing with the number of accumulated spells. Past experiences of poverty and non-poverty seem to be essential to predict the future status of poverty.

Have Cash Transfers Succeeded in Reaching the Poor in Latin America and the Caribbean

Presentamos nuevas estimaciones sobre la calidad de la focalizacion de los programas de transferencias monetarias condicionadas (TMC) y de las pensiones no contributivas (PNC) en America Latina y el Caribe. Nuestra contribucion es nueva debido a que utilizamos lineas de pobreza tanto nacionales como internacionales, proporcionamos estimaciones diferenciadas para areas urbanas y rurales y comparamos los programas de TMC y PNC. Mostramos que la filtracion a los no pobres coexiste con una cobertura insuficiente a todos los pobres, incluidos los pobres extremos. En promedio, las TMC cubren solamente al 50,6% de los pobres extremos en hogares con ninos menores de 18 anos. De forma similar, las PNC cubren unicamente al 53,2% de los pobres extremos en hogares con adultos mayores que no reciben una pension contributiva. Al mismo tiempo, el 39,2% de los beneficiarios de TMC y el 48,6% de beneficiarios de PNC no son pobres, lo que resalta la necesidad potencial de una refocalizacion y recertificacion. En la mayoria de los paises, la refocalizacion podria generar un beneficio doble considerable en terminos de reduccion de pobreza y ahorros fiscales.

Paraguay: Rutas para el Desarrollo

Esta publicacion sintetiza el trabajo analitico desarrollado por especialistas del BID en el marco de preparacion de la nueva estrategia del Banco con Paraguay. El documento analiza los desafios que afronta Paraguay para alcanzar mayores niveles de bienestar y desarrollo, y propone opciones de politica para superarlos.