Marcus A. Winters

REVISITING GRADE RETENTION: AN EVALUATION OF FLORIDA'S TEST-BASED PROMOTION POLICY

In 2002, Florida adopted a test-based promotion policy in the third grade in an attempt to end social promotion. Similar policies are currently operating in Texas, New York City, and Chicago and affect at least 17 percent of public school students nationwide. Using individual-level data on the universe of public school students in Florida, we analyze the impact of grade retention on student proficiency in reading one and two years after the retention decision. We use an instrumental variable (IV) approach made available by the relatively objective nature of Floridas policy. Our findings suggest that retained students slightly outperformed socially promoted students in reading in the first year after retention, and these gains increased substantially in the second year. Results were robust across two distinct IV comparisons: an across-year approach comparing students who were essentially separated by the year in which they happened to have been born, and a regression discontinuity design.

Who Would Stay, Who Would Be Dismissed? An Empirical Consideration of Value-Added Teacher Retention Policies

Several states have recently adopted or are pursuing policies that deny or revoke tenure from teachers who receive poor evaluation ratings over time based in part on quantitative measures of performance. Using data from the state of Florida, we estimate such value-added measures to consider the future effectiveness and number of teachers who would have been dismissed under different versions of these policies. Students assigned to teachers who would have been dismissed according to a value-added policy made considerably smaller academic improvements than did students assigned to teachers who would have avoided dismissal. Critically, however, we show that specific policy design determines the extent of the potential for value-added to improve the overall quality of the teaching workforce.

Grading New York: Accountability and Student Proficiency in America's Largest School District.

This article uses a regression discontinuity approach to study the influence of New York City’s school grading policy on student math and English language arts (ELA) achievement. We find evidence that students in schools receiving a failing grade realized positive effects in English in the 1st year of sanction, but we find no statistically significant effect during the 1st year of sanction on student math achievement. There is no evidence that receiving letter grades other than F had positive effects. Finally, we show that students in schools that received an F-grade in the 1st year continued to realize a positive average ELA effect in the 2nd year and that a positive math effect was evident as well.

The Effect of Residential School Choice on Public High School Graduation Rates

This study evaluates the effect of school district size on public high school graduation rates. The study calculates the graduation rate for each graduating class in each state between 1991 and 2002 and uses a fixed-effects model to examine the relationship between these graduation rates and changes in the size of each states school districts during that period. The analysis indicates that decreasing the average size of a states school districts by 200 square miles leads to an increase of about 1.64 percentage points in its graduation rate. To put this result into context, if Florida decreased the size of its school districts to the national median, it would increase its graduation rate by about 4.5 percentage points.

Understanding the Gap in Special Education Enrollments Between Charter and Traditional Public Schools Evidence From Denver, Colorado

A widely cited report by the federal Government Accountability Office found that charter schools enroll a significantly smaller percentage of students with disabilities than do traditional public schools. However, thus far no hard evidence exists to definitively explain or quantify the disparity between special education enrollment rates in charter and traditional public schools. This article uses student-level data from Denver, Colorado, to map the creation and growth of the special education gap in elementary and middle school grades. The gap begins because students with disabilities are less likely to apply to charter schools in gateway grades than are nondisabled students. However, the special education gap in Denver elementary schools more than doubles as students progress between kindergarten and the fifth grade. About half of the growth in the gap in elementary grades (46%) occurs because of classification differences across sectors. The remaining 54% of the growth in the gap in elementary grades is due to differences in student mobility across sectors. However, the gap does not primarily grow—and in fact tends to shrink—due to the movement of students with disabilities across sectors and out of the city’s school system. Rather, the impact of student mobility on the gap is driven primarily by nondisabled students: Regular enrollment students are more likely to enter into charter schools, thus disproportionately reducing the percentage of students with disabilities within the charter sector.

The Medium-Run Effects of Florida’s Test-Based Promotion Policy

We use a regression discontinuity strategy to produce causal estimates for the effect of remediation under Florida’s test-based promotion policy on multiple outcomes for up to five years after the intervention. Students subjected to the policy were retained in the third grade, were required to be assigned to a high-quality teacher during the retained year, and were required to attend summer school. Exposure to these interventions has a statistically significant and substantial positive effect on student achievement in math, reading, and science in the years immediately following the treatment. But the effect of the treatment dissipates over time. Nonetheless, we find that the effect of remediation under the policy on academic achievement is statistically significant and of a meaningful magnitude several years after the student is exposed to the intervention. Though we cannot completely separate the differential effects of the treatments attached to the policy, we provide some evidence that assignment to a higher-quality teacher in the retained year is not the primary driver of the policy’s effect.

Do Charters Retain Teachers Differently? Evidence from Elementary Schools in Florida

We analyze patterns of teacher attrition from charter schools and schools in the traditional public sector. Using rich data on students, teachers, and schools in Florida, we estimate teacher effectiveness based on repeated test scores reported at the student level for each teacher over time. Among all teachers, those in charter schools appear more likely to exit the profession than those in the traditional public sector, and in both sectors the least effective teachers are more likely to exit than their more effective counterparts. Few of these relationships appear evident for within- or between-district transfers, and there are no differential relationships between effectiveness and attrition in the charter sector. We interpret these results as indicating that whatever administrative or organizational differences may exist in charter schools, they do not necessarily translate into a discernible difference in the ability to dismiss poorly performing teachers.

Public School Response to Special Education Vouchers The Impact of Florida’s McKay Scholarship Program on Disability Diagnosis and Student Achievement in Public Schools

The authors expand on research evaluating public school response to school choice policies by considering the particular influence of voucher programs for disabled students—a growing type of choice program that may have different implications for public school systems from those of more conventional choice programs. The authors provide a theoretical framework to show that special education vouchers could influence both school quality and the likelihood that a school will choose to identify the marginal child as disabled. Using a rich panel data set from Florida, the authors find some evidence that competition from a voucher program for disabled students decreased the likelihood that a student was diagnosed as having a mild disability and was positively related to academic achievement in the public schools.

Does Attending a Charter School Reduce the Likelihood of Being Placed Into Special Education? Evidence From Denver, Colorado:

We use administrative data to measure whether attending a charter school in Denver, Colorado, reduces the likelihood that students are newly classified as having a disability in primary grades. We employ an observational approach that takes advantage of Denver’s Common Enrollment System, which allows us to observe each school that the student listed a preference to attend. We find evidence that attending a Denver charter school reduces the likelihood that a student is classified as having a specific learning disability, which is the largest and most subjectively diagnosed disability category. We find no evidence that charter attendance reduces the probability of being classified as having a speech or language disability or autism, which are two more objectively diagnosed classifications.

Rethinking the Structure of Teacher Retirement Benefits: Analyzing the Preferences of Entering Teachers

Most U.S. public school teachers participate in defined benefit retirement plans, which base benefits on years of service and their last few years of salary. These plans are often backloaded and include sharp economic incentives. We consider the implications of transitioning to a cost-equivalent defined benefit plan under which teachers would earn benefits more evenly across their careers. We show that new teachers who are risk averse would prefer the alternative plan. The magnitude is often substantial. For example, for an entering teacher the certainty equivalent for the CB plan is about 2.1 times the certainty equivalent for the respective FAS plan in New York City and 29 times larger than the respective heavily backloaded FAS plan in Philadelphia.