Mari M. Kitahata

Life expectancy of individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy in high-income countries: a collaborative analysis of 14 cohort studies

BACKGROUND Combination antiretroviral therapy has led to significant increases in survival and quality of life, but at a population-level the effect on life expectancy is not well understood. Our objective was to compare changes in mortality and life expectancy among HIV-positive individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy. METHODS The Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration is a multinational collaboration of HIV cohort studies in Europe and North America. Patients were included in this analysis if they were aged 16 years or over and antiretroviral-naive when initiating combination therapy. We constructed abridged life tables to estimate life expectancies for individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy in 1996-99, 2000-02, and 2003-05, and stratified by sex, baseline CD4 cell count, and history of injecting drug use. The average number of years remaining to be lived by those treated with combination antiretroviral therapy at 20 and 35 years of age was estimated. Potential years of life lost from 20 to 64 years of age and crude mortality rates were also calculated. FINDINGS 18 587, 13 914, and 10 854 eligible patients initiated combination antiretroviral therapy in 1996-99, 2000-02, and 2003-05, respectively. 2056 (4.7%) deaths were observed during the study period, with crude mortality rates decreasing from 16.3 deaths per 1000 person-years in 1996-99 to 10.0 deaths per 1000 person-years in 2003-05. Potential years of life lost per 1000 person-years also decreased over the same time, from 366 to 189 years. Life expectancy at age 20 years increased from 36.1 (SE 0.6) years to 49.4 (0.5) years. Women had higher life expectancies than did men. Patients with presumed transmission via injecting drug use had lower life expectancies than did those from other transmission groups (32.6 [1.1] years vs 44.7 [0.3] years in 2003-05). Life expectancy was lower in patients with lower baseline CD4 cell counts than in those with higher baseline counts (32.4 [1.1] years for CD4 cell counts below 100 cells per muL vs 50.4 [0.4] years for counts of 200 cells per muL or more). INTERPRETATION Life expectancy in HIV-infected patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy increased between 1996 and 2005, although there is considerable variability between subgroups of patients. The average number of years remaining to be lived at age 20 years was about two-thirds of that in the general population in these countries.

Effect of Early versus Deferred Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV on Survival

BACKGROUND The optimal time for the initiation of antiretroviral therapy for asymptomatic patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is uncertain. METHODS We conducted two parallel analyses involving a total of 17,517 asymptomatic patients with HIV infection in the United States and Canada who received medical care during the period from 1996 through 2005. None of the patients had undergone previous antiretroviral therapy. In each group, we stratified the patients according to the CD4+ count (351 to 500 cells per cubic millimeter or >500 cells per cubic millimeter) at the initiation of antiretroviral therapy. In each group, we compared the relative risk of death for patients who initiated therapy when the CD4+ count was above each of the two thresholds of interest (early-therapy group) with that of patients who deferred therapy until the CD4+ count fell below these thresholds (deferred-therapy group). RESULTS In the first analysis, which involved 8362 patients, 2084 (25%) initiated therapy at a CD4+ count of 351 to 500 cells per cubic millimeter, and 6278 (75%) deferred therapy. After adjustment for calendar year, cohort of patients, and demographic and clinical characteristics, among patients in the deferred-therapy group there was an increase in the risk of death of 69%, as compared with that in the early-therapy group (relative risk in the deferred-therapy group, 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26 to 2.26; P<0.001). In the second analysis involving 9155 patients, 2220 (24%) initiated therapy at a CD4+ count of more than 500 cells per cubic millimeter and 6935 (76%) deferred therapy. Among patients in the deferred-therapy group, there was an increase in the risk of death of 94% (relative risk, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.37 to 2.79; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS The early initiation of antiretroviral therapy before the CD4+ count fell below two prespecified thresholds significantly improved survival, as compared with deferred therapy.

Risk of Anal Cancer in HIV-Infected and HIV-Uninfected Individuals in North America

BACKGROUND Anal cancer is one of the most common cancers affecting individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), although few have evaluated rates separately for men who have sex with men (MSM), other men, and women. There are also conflicting data regarding calendar trends. METHODS In a study involving 13 cohorts from North America with follow-up between 1996 and 2007, we compared anal cancer incidence rates among 34 189 HIV-infected (55% MSM, 19% other men, 26% women) and 114 260 HIV-uninfected individuals (90% men). RESULTS Among men, the unadjusted anal cancer incidence rates per 100 000 person-years were 131 for HIV-infected MSM, 46 for other HIV-infected men, and 2 for HIV-uninfected men, corresponding to demographically adjusted rate ratios (RRs) of 80.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 42.7-151.1) for HIV-infected MSM and 26.7 (95% CI, 11.5-61.7) for other HIV-infected men compared with HIV-uninfected men. HIV-infected women had an anal cancer rate of 30/100 000 person-years, and no cases were observed for HIV-uninfected women. In a multivariable Poisson regression model, among HIV-infected individuals, the risk was higher for MSM compared with other men (RR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.8-6.0), but no difference was observed comparing women with other men (RR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.5-2.2). In comparison with the period 2000-2003, HIV-infected individuals had an adjusted RR of 0.5 (95% CI, .3-.9) in 1996-1999 and 0.9 (95% CI, .6-1.2) in 2004-2007. CONCLUSIONS Anal cancer rates were substantially higher for HIV-infected MSM, other men, and women compared with HIV-uninfected individuals, suggesting a need for universal prevention efforts. Rates increased after the early antiretroviral therapy era and then plateaued.

Continued CD4 cell count increases in HIV-infected adults experiencing 4 years of viral suppression on antiretroviral therapy

Objective: To determine the extent to which HIV-infected patients, including those with advanced immunodeficiency, can reverse peripheral CD4 T-cell depletion while maintaining long-term viral suppression on highly active antiretroviral therapy. Design: Cohort study. Participants: Four-hundred and twenty-three HIV-infected patients who initiated HAART prior to 1998 and achieved a viral load ⩽ 1000 copies/ml by 48 weeks were evaluated for up to 4 years or until plasma HIV RNA levels increased to > 1000 copies/ml. Main outcome measure: CD4 count changes. Results: Among patients who maintained plasma HIV RNA levels ⩽ 1000 copies/ml, CD4 counts continued to increase through year 4 of HAART. In the last year examined, from year 3 to 4 of HAART, mean CD4 count gains were +89 × 106, +86 × 106, +95 × 106, and +88 × 106/l in patients with pre-therapy CD4 counts of < 50 × 106, 50 × 106–199 × 106, 200 × 106–349 × 106, and ⩾ 350 × 106/l, respectively (all gains were significantly greater than zero; P < 0.05). Among those with a pre-therapy CD4 count of < 50 × 106/l, 88% achieved a CD4 cell count of ⩾ 200 × 106/l and 59% achieved a count of ⩾ 350 × 106/l by year 4. Factors associated with increased CD4 cell count gains from month 3 to year 4 included lower pre-therapy CD4 cell count, younger age, female sex, and infrequent low-level viremia (versus sustained undetectable viremia). Conclusions: Most patients who achieve and maintain viral suppression on HAART continue to experience CD4 T-cell gains through 4 years of therapy. The immune systems capacity for CD4 T lymphocyte restoration is not limited by low pre-therapy CD4 counts.

Late Presentation for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Care in the United States and Canada

BACKGROUND. Initiatives to improve early detection and access to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) services have increased over time. We assessed the immune status of patients at initial presentation for HIV care from 1997 to 2007 in 13 US and Canadian clinical cohorts. METHODS. We analyzed data from 44,491 HIV-infected patients enrolled in the North American-AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. We identified first presentation for HIV care as the time of first CD4(+) T lymphocyte (CD4) count and excluded patients who prior to this date had HIV RNA measurements, evidence of antiretroviral exposure, or a history of AIDS-defining illness. Trends in mean CD4 count (measured as cells/mm(3)) and 95% confidence intervals were determined using linear regression adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, HIV transmission risk, and cohort. RESULTS. Median age at first presentation for HIV care increased over time (range, 40-43 years; P < .01), whereas the percentage of patients with injection drug use HIV transmission risk decreased (from 26% to 14%; P < .01) and heterosexual transmission risk increased (from 16% to 23%; P < .01). Median CD4 count at presentation increased from 256 cells/mm(3) (interquartile range, 96-455 cells/mm(3)) to 317 cells/mm(3) (interquartile range, 135-517 cells/mm(3)) from 1997 to 2007 (P < .01). The percentage of patients with a CD4 count > or = 350 cells/mm(3) at first presentation also increased from 1997 to 2007 (from 38% to 46%; P < .01). The estimated adjusted mean CD4 count increased at a rate of 6 cells/mm(3) per year (95% confidence interval, 5-7 cells/mm(3) per year). CONCLUSION. CD4 count at first presentation for HIV care has increased annually over the past 11 years but has remained <350 cells/mm(3), which suggests the urgent need for earlier HIV diagnosis and treatment.

Early Retention in HIV Care and Viral Load Suppression: Implications for a Test and Treat Approach to HIV Prevention

BackgroundAfter HIV diagnosis and linkage to care, achieving and sustaining viral load (VL) suppression has implications for patient outcomes and secondary HIV prevention. We evaluated factors associated with expeditious VL suppression and cumulative VL burden among patients establishing outpatient HIV care. MethodsPatients initiating HIV medical care from January 2007 to October 2010 at the University of Alabama at Birmingham and University of Washington were included. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards and linear regression models were used to evaluate factors associated with time to VL suppression (<50 copies/mL) and cumulative VL burden, respectively. Viremia copy-years, a novel area under the longitudinal VL curve measure, was used to estimate 2-year cumulative VL burden from clinic enrollment. ResultsAmong 676 patients, 63% achieved VL <50 copies per milliliter in a median 308 days. In multivariable analysis, patients with more time-updated “no show” visits experienced delayed VL suppression (hazard ratio = 0.84 per “no show” visit, 95% confidence interval = 0.76 to 0.92). In multivariable linear regression, visit nonadherence was independently associated with greater cumulative VL burden (log10 viremia copy-years) during the first 2 years in care (Beta coefficient = 0.11 per 10% visit nonadherence, 95% confidence interval = 0.04 to 0.17). Across increasing visit adherence categories, lower cumulative VL burden was observed (mean ± standard deviation log10 copy × years/mL); 0%–79% adherence: 4.6 ± 0.8; 80%–99% adherence: 4.3 ± 0.7; and 100% adherence: 4.1 ± 0.7 log10 copy × years/mL, respectively (P < 0.01). ConclusionsHigher rates of early retention in HIV care are associated with achieving VL suppression and lower cumulative VL burden. These findings are germane for a test and treat approach to HIV prevention.

Antiretroviral medications associated with elevated blood pressure among patients receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy.

Objective:To examine the effect of antiretroviral agents and clinical factors on the development of elevated blood pressure (BP). Methods:Observational cohort study of patients initiating their first HAART regimen. We evaluated mean BP prior to HAART and while receiving HAART in relation to antiretroviral classes and individual agents, and demographic and clinical characteristics including change in body mass index (BMI) while on HAART. We used logistic regression analysis to examine factors associated with elevated BP [≥ 10 mmHg increase in systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP) or new diagnosis of hypertension]. Results:Among 444 patients who had 4592 BP readings, 95 patients developed elevated SBP (n = 83), elevated DBP (n = 33), or a new diagnosis of hypertension (n = 11) after initiating HAART. In multivariate analysis, patients on lopinavir/ritonavir had the highest risk of developing elevated BP [odds ratio (OR), 2.5; P = 0.03] compared with efavirenz-based regimens. When change in BMI was added to the model, increased BMI was significantly associated with elevated BP (OR, 1.3; P = 0.02), and the association between lopinavir/ritonavir and elevated BP was no longer present. Compared with lopinavir/ritonavir-based regimens, patients receiving atazanavir (OR, 0.2; P = 0.03), efavirenz (OR, 0.4; P = 0.02), nelfinavir (OR, 0.3; P = 0.02), or indinavir (OR, 0.3; P = 0.01) had significantly lower odds of developing elevated BP. Conclusions:Treatment with lopinavir/ritonavir is significantly associated with elevated BP, an effect that appears to be mediated through an increase in BMI. Patients receiving atazanavir were least likely to develop elevated BP. The impact of antiretroviral medications on cardiovascular disease risk factors will increasingly influence treatment decisions.

Cohort profile: the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) delays disease progression and death. However, the treatments incompletely control HIV replication, only partially restore immune function, have significant shortand long-term toxicities, and eventually fail in many patients with consequent development of HIV drug resistance. Thus, there is increasing need for information to guide HIV-infected patients and their providers in making decisions regarding optimal use of antiretroviral therapies. Although clinical trials provide valuable information about efficacy and side effects of antiretroviral treatment, they have limited size, duration and power to detect effects on clinical outcomes, focusing instead on surrogate endpoints such as virologic failure, treatment discontinuation or composite outcome measures. Outside the clinical trial setting, there is tremendous heterogeneity among HIV-infected patients. The prevalence and impact of important health conditions such as hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection, mental illness and substance abuse likely contribute to increased toxicity and decreased clinical effectiveness of HAART regimens among the broader spectrum of patients treated in routine care. Cohorts with significant diversity in HIV disease severity, comorbidities and demographic distributions are required to provide information regarding long-term outcomes and complications of HIV infection in the modern HAART era. The Centers for AIDS Research (CFAR) Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) was created to better define the relationship between patient and treatment factors and long-term clinical outcomes among HIV-infected patients in the HAART era. The CFARs are a national network of centres of excellence for HIV care and research established by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) whose mission is to support a multi-disciplinary environment for basic, clinical, epidemiologic, behavioural and translational research in the prevention, detection and treatment of HIV infection and AIDS. There are 19 CFARs located at academic and research institutions throughout the United States. The objective of the CNICS project is to integrate clinical data from the large and diverse population of HIV-infected persons receiving care at CFAR sites to investigate questions related to HIV disease management that cannot be readily addressed through traditional randomized controlled clinical trials and other cohort studies. Investigators with expertise in basic, clinical, translational and epidemiologic research, in addition to medical informatics, are collaborating on the CNICS project. The potential to build a comprehensive clinical data repository for HIV disease was greatly advanced by the work of CFAR investigators at the participating CNICS sites who had instituted point-of-care electronic medical record systems (EMRs) with the dual purpose of providing real-time clinical information to facilitate the delivery of HIV care and capturing standardized clinical data to support populationbased HIV research. The initial four CNICS sites were Case Western Reserve University, University of * Corresponding author. Center for AIDS Research, University of Washington, 325 9th Ave, MS 359931, Seattle, WA 98104, USA. E-mail: kitahata@u.washington.edu 1 Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, 98195, USA. 2 Department of Medicine, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, 44106, USA. 3 Department of Medicine, University of California, San Diego, 92110, USA. 4 Department of Medicine, Harvard University, Boston, 02115, USA. 5 Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, 21218, USA. 6 Department of Medicine, University of Alabama, Birmingham, 35209, USA. 7 Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, 94143, USA. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

The effect of mental illness, substance use, and treatment for depression on the initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected individuals.

Information regarding the prevalence of mental illness and substance use among HIV-infected patients and the effect of these problems on HIV treatment is needed. We conducted an observational study of patients in the University of Washington (UW) HIV Cohort to determine prevalence rates for mental illness and substance use. Cox regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between mental illness and substance use, pharmacologic treatment for depression/anxiety, and initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) within 9 months of becoming eligible for HAART. Among 1774 patients in the UW HIV cohort during 2004, 63% had a mental illness (including mood, anxiety, psychotic, or personality disorders), 45% had a substance use disorder, and 38% had both. There were 278 patients who met criteria for HAART eligibility. After controlling for other factors, patients with depression and/or anxiety were significantly less likely to initiate HAART compared with patients without a mental illness (hazard ratio [HR] 0.4, p = 0.02). However, patients with depression/anxiety who received antidepressant/antianxiety medications were equally likely to initiate HAART as patients without a mental illness (HR 0.9, p = 0.5). We found that patients with mental illness or substance use disorders receive HAART at lower CD4+ cell counts and higher HIV-1 RNA levels than patients without these disorders. However, HAART initiation among patients who receive treatment for depression/anxiety is associated with no delay. Screening for these disorders in primary care settings and access to appropriate treatment are increasingly important components of providing care to HIV-infected patients.

Pharmacy-based assessment of adherence to HAART predicts virologic and immunologic treatment response and clinical progression to AIDS and death.

Although adherence to HAART at a level above 95% has been associated with optimal viral suppression, the impact of different levels of adherence on long-term clinical outcomes has not been determined. We used an objective pharmacy-based measure to examine the association between three levels of adherence to HAART and disease progression among a population-based cohort of HIV-infected patients attending an urban HIV specialty clinic. Higher levels of adherence to HAART were significantly associated with longer time to virologic failure (P < 0.001), greater increase in CD4 cell count (P = 0.04), and lower risk of progression to clinical AIDS or death (P < 0.007). After controlling for other factors, patients with low adherence had over five times the risk of disease progression than patients with moderate adherence (P = 0.007) or patients with high adherence (P = 0.001). There was no significant difference in the risk of progression between patients with moderate and high levels of adherence (P > 0.2). Patients who progressed to AIDS or death had significantly higher viral loads (P = 0.01) and lower CD4 cell counts (P = 0.03) than patients who experienced virologic failure, but did not progress.