Maria Emilia Camargo

Sales forecasting using time series and neural networks

Abstract This paper presents the use of time series ARIMA model with interventions, and neural network backpropagation model in analyzing the behavior of sales in a medium size enterprise located in Santa Maria (RS), Brazil for the period January 1979 - December 1989. The forecasts obtained using the backpropagation model were found to be more accurate than those of ARIMA model with interventions.

A influência da perícia contábil nas decisões judiciais

Accounting expertise is the finding tool that assists the judge in fact investigation linked to the patrimony to a correct judgment of the case. Its result is the skillful accounting that exposes content everything that was investigated during the making of the work and the conclusion reached on the subject. For this purpose it is necessary that the expert do the determining the Brazilian Accounting Standards and the code of Civil procedure, working in a suitable, clear, objective and impartial, always seeking to improve their knowledge in order to achieve excellence in their work. This context, the objective of this work was to determine if the accounting expert reports were being developed in accordance with the norms established and what influence they wield within the judiciary. The methodology used for the development of the study was descriptive and bibliographical research was used for the justification of the above. It was used a questionnaire to obtain the opinion of the judges of the Civil Courts of the counties of Cork and Lagoa Vermelha, in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The survey results revealed that the expert report has been used by the magistrate and serves as an important part in the decisions. It is worth noting that the research found that there are points where the reports can be improved, as the basis, content and conclusions.

Application control charts for analysis of quality in industrial painting

In the last years many areas in the productive section have experienced fast technologic progress and, this way, demanding even more specific tools to control and assess these processes. Significant improvement in the processes of quality characteristics measurements has been noted. Regarding the process control, in 1924, Walter Shewhart (1931) developed the statistic concept of control letters construction. This article has the goal to show the process statistic control charts, in the painting sector of the Company Metasa, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, which process characteristic of industrial painting analyzed was the paint coat thickness. The data were collected taking into consideration, the sequences that form the paint application process (painting coating), searching to offer a sensible improvement in the quality levels of this sector, with the objective of reducing production costs. The results found are of great importance to the company, since limits of control were established that will allow monitor the processes. For the cases where the analysis, otherwise, diagnosed the process permanence out of control, the study of their variability causes was necessary.

Fatores que influenciam o padrão radiológico de densidade das mamas

The density pattern of the breasts should be reported to the clinician in view of the possible difficulties in the diagnosis of mammary disease due to reduced sensitiveness and specificity in patients with dense breasts. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper was to correlate the different mammography density patterns with possibly modifying factors such as age, parity and body mass index. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eight hundred and forty-nine women and their respective mammography examinations were evaluated in order to identify the density pattern of the breasts, age, parity and body mass index. Chi-square test, contingency coefficient and logistic regression were used for the statistical analysis. RESULTS: Most women were 36 to 55 years old. There was predominance of low density (73.7%) over high density (26.3%) patterns. Multiparity was observed in 69.8% of the women whereas 16.5% were nulliparous and 13.7% had only one child. The body mass index was normal in 53.3% of the women. Overweight was observed in 26.1% of the women, 9.5% were obese and 11.3% were below the ideal weight. CONCLUSION: Dense breast patterns were influenced by young age, nulliparity and reduced body mass index. Low density breast patterns were more frequent with increasing ages, number of children and body mass index.

Statistical quality control: A case study research

In this paper, statistical quality control of a production line has been presented using the classical method Shewhart, cumulative sum method (CUSUM) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). The Shewhart technique can be utilized in controlling the process in which there are big changes in mean. The cumulative sum method is more efficient in detecting small changes in the mean. The EWMA includes the two techniques, as limited cases, since when lambda = 1 the exponential smooth model is equivalent to the Shewhart technique, and when lambda = 0 equivalent to the cumulative sum technique.

Relationship between sustainable operations practices and performance: a meta-analysis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between sustainable operations practices (SOP) and performance. Design/methodology/approach This study was conducted through a systematic literature review followed by a meta-analysis of correlations. Findings In the results, 14 of the relationships examined showed a positive relationship and 12 the presence of moderators. The study findings indicate that contingency affects the relationship between SOPs and performance. Research limitations/implications The research presented in this paper is mainly limited to databases that were searched. Among the quantitative articles selected from the databases, many did not have the data needed to conduct the meta-analysis, which may have limited the results of this study. Practical implications Using the results of this study, practitioners can become aware of to the occurrence of moderating factors in the relationships, which can range from interference from other practices and variables to characteristics of the organization itself or the market in which organizations operate. Originality/value This study uses a multidimensional approach for both SOP and performance. This approach allowed a more complete and comprehensive result, showing how these SOPs influence the different categories of performance, expanding the understanding of the relationship between practices and performance.

The role of technological capability in the internationalization of the company and new product success: a systematic literature review

As constantes mudancas existentes no ambiente corporativo exigem que as organizacoes apresentem alta velocidade de adaptacao aos cenarios hipercompetitivos. A capacidade tecnologica pode favorecer a internacionalizacao da empresa, uma vez que possibilita a formacao de parcerias estrategicas, investimento em PD capacidade tecnologica e considerada um importante elemento de crescimento economico; facilita a internacionalizacao da empresa; pode proporcionar o sucesso de novos produtos; a transferencia de tecnologia auxilia na formacao de capacidade tecnologica, por meio do conhecimento tacito, habilidades e competencias dos funcionarios; em regra, empresas exportadoras apresentam maior capacidade tecnologica. Por fim, foi proposto um framework teorico, limitacao do estudo e sugestoes para pesquisas futuras.

Configuração das práticas de inovação na atenção primária à saúde: estudo de caso

The objective of this study was to identify the practice of innovation in primary healthcare in the second-largest county, by population, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The methodology employed case studies of multiple units of analysis, where various studies were simultaneously conducted. Forty-five semi-structured interviews were carried out with the directors of basic health clinics, followed by content analysis, beginning with the construction of a system of categories based on the literature. Fifty-six innovations in total were identified: Eighteen were innovations of products (goods and/or services), fifteen in processes, eleven in marketing, and twelve were organizational innovations. Studies that focus on and highlight innovation in primary healthcare facilitate changes, improvements, and alternatives in the form of services provided to the population, serving as a basis for the formulation of public health policy. Finally, we also highlight the limitations and opportunities of future research.The objective of this study was to identify the practice of innovation in primary healthcare in the second-largest county, by population, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The methodology employed case studies of multiple units of analysis, where various studies were simultaneously conducted. Forty-five semi-structured interviews were carried out with the directors of basic health clinics, followed by content analysis, beginning with the construction of a system of categories based on the literature. Fifty-six innovations in total were identified: Eighteen were innovations of products (goods and/or services), fifteen in processes, eleven in marketing, and twelve were organizational innovations. Studies that focus on and highlight innovation in primary healthcare facilitate changes, improvements, and alternatives in the form of services provided to the population, serving as a basis for the formulation of public health policy. Finally, we also highlight the limitations and opportunities of future research.

Forecast models and the nature of the decision process: The case of a Brazilian electricity distribution company

Needs for adequate long-term planning in the execution of energy generation to meet growing demand leads to intense regulation on energy distributors. A research was realized by a Brazilian distribution company to identify the consumption prediction methods, the nature of the decision process and their specific interaction scheme. Were initially identified the models already used by other distribution companies. After, were studied the accuracy of the models and the models were adjusted based on the industrial consumption, with the use of Box-Jenkins methodology. Finally, were established criteria which have an impact on the decision process, using Herbert Simons theory; demonstrating the limited value of any existing tool, and the importance of using more than one, integrating quantitative to qualitative analysis.

ESTUDO DE CASO DOS IMPACTOS DA CRISE GLOBAL NOS CRITÉRIOS COMPETITIVOS ESTRATÉGICOS DE EMPRESAS

No segundo semestre de 2008 iniciou a crise economica que provocou a influencia nos resultados organizacionais de diversas empresas. Os gestores tiveram que ser ageis em analise, para decidir em quais criterios competitivos as empresas estavam ameacadas e definir estrategias para estas permanecerem no mercado globalizado. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi diagnosticar quais foram as acoes adotadas por duas empresas no periodo de crise, sob a otica dos criterios competitivos repensando suas estrategias de operacao. A metodologia utilizada foi classificada como pesquisa exploratoria (estudo de caso) atraves de entrevistas com questoes semi-estruturadas. Para esta pesquisa utilizou-se os cinco criterios competitivos abordados por Paiva et al (2004). Como objetos desta pesquisa foram selecionadas duas empresas exportadoras: uma do segmento de alimentos e outra de autopecas. Os resultados mostraram que apesar das diferencas de natureza e atuacao destas empresas, as mesmas apresentaram acoes com grau de significância comum e por ja terem estrategias definidas antes do periodo da crise foram afetadas superficialmente.