María Inés Terra

The Effects of Increasing Openness and Integration to the MERCOSUR on the Uruguayan Labor Market: A CGE Modeling Analysis

Uruguay is a small economy. Its integration into MERCOSUR has increased its exposure to regional macroeconomic instability. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of regional integration on the countrys labour market and poverty. We estimated wage differentials between labour categories, finding a 60 percent wage gap between formal and informal workers. A CGE model with an efficiency wage specification for unskilled labour was built, with results showing that regional shocks deeply affect the Uruguayan economy. The consideration of an efficiency wage model is particularly important when shocks lead to a reallocation of resources towards sectors intensive in unskilled labour. A subsidy on formal, unskilled labour could contribute to decrease informality and therefore increase GDP, but this type of policy needs to be carefully implemented because it may have negative effects on investment. Finally, the effects on poverty and income distribution obtained through microsimulations are consistent with the results of the CGE experiments.

Trade Openness and Gender in Uruguay: A CGE Analysis

Survey results from Uruguay show that there is gender discrimination in the private labor market, and that women spend more time than men doing domestic work and less time in the labor market. We take these and other features of the survey into account to build a gender aware CGE model with endogenous labor supply and a home production function. This kind of model is a useful tool to evaluate the impact of different policies, in particular those relating to gender. In this paper we analyze the gender-differentiated impacts of trade openness in Uruguay on employment, wages and time allocation. We simulated different scenarios of tariff changes. Greater trade openness improved the situation of women in terms of employment and wages, but the impact on gender gaps depends on how trade openness affect trade flows. If net exports to Argentina increases, demand for female labor increases and the gender gap goes down. However, if net exports to Brazil and the rest of the world increase, unskilled male demand expands. When considering time distribution, the impact also depends on the elasticity of labor supply, which differs by skill.

Fighting Informality in Segmented Labor Markets A General Equilibrium Analysis Applied to Uruguay

As in other Latin American countries, labor informality in Uruguay mainly affects less educated workers, who are also more vulnerable to poverty. We analyze the impact of some policies against informality in Uruguay, applying a general equilibrium model with a segmented labor market specification. We simulate two sets of policies: payroll tax cuts and increased enforcement in the informal sector. Both sets of policies are effective in reducing informality, but the effect on poverty is not straightforward. Poverty falls as informality is reduced; however, as enforcement policies increase hiring costs for informal firms, wages of low-skilled workers decline and poverty increases.