Maria T. Kaylen

The effects of the 2006 Russian alcohol policy on alcohol-related mortality: An interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to determine the impact of a set of 2006 Russian alcohol policies on alcohol-related mortality in the country. METHODS We used autoregressive integrated moving average interrupted time series techniques to model the impact of the policy on the number of sex-specific monthly deaths of those aged 15+ years due to alcohol poisoning, alcoholic cardiomyopathy, alcoholic liver cirrhosis, and alcohol-related mental and behavioral disorders. The time series began in January 2000 and ended in December 2010. The alcohol policy was implemented in January 2006. RESULTS The alcohol policy resulted in a significant gradual and sustained decline in male deaths due to alcohol poisoning (ωo = -92.631, p < 0.008, δ1 = 0.883, p < 0.001) and in significant immediate and sustained declines in male (ω0 = -63.20, p < 0.05) and female (ω0 = -64.28, p < 0.005) deaths due to alcoholic liver cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS The 2006 suite of alcohol policies in Russia was responsible for an annual decline of about 6,700 male alcohol poisoning deaths and about 760 male and about 770 female alcoholic liver cirrhosis deaths. Without the alcohol policy, male alcohol poisoning deaths would have been 35% higher and male and female alcoholic liver cirrhosis deaths would have been 9 and 15% higher, respectively. We contextualize our findings in relation to declining mortality in Russia and to results from recent studies of the impact of this law on other causes of death.

The Association Between Social Disorganization and Rural Violence Is Sensitive to the Measurement of the Dependent Variable

A widely cited study by Osgood and Chambers appeared to extend the generalizability of social disorganization theory to youth violence in rural areas. The results of a very similar study we conducted, however, did not show support for social disorganization, and we concluded that the theory may not be as robust an explanation for rural youth violence as believed. In the current article, we take an important first step in addressing the conflicting findings by examining three likely methodological reasons for the inconsistent results: spatial autocorrelation, sample composition, and measurement of the dependent variable. Multiple tests suggest the first two explanations do not influence the results. Our analyses do indicate, however, that the association between social disorganization and violence in rural areas is sensitive to how the dependent variable is measured. We conclude that scholars should not rely solely on official crime data from rural areas when testing sociological and criminological theories.

Societal Heavy Drinking and Suicide Mortality among Russian Youth

Research has found an aggregate association between heavy drinking and suicide rates in general, and in Russia specifically. Alcohol is one of the most serious drug problems facing Russian youth, yet the aggregate alcohol-suicide association has not been tested for this population. Aggregate mortality data for Russian regions (n = 78) for the year 2000 were used to measure youth (age 10–19) suicides and a proxy for societal heavy drinking. We employed the negative binomial estimator to test the heavy societal drinking-youth suicide hypothesis, controlling for other structural factors thought to influence suicide rates. The results showed a positive and significant association between the two for overall, male, and female rates. These results are consistent with studies of alcohol and suicide in Russia, suggesting youth suicide rates are influenced by levels of heavy drinking among youth and those close to them.

The Impact of Changing Demographic Composition on Aggravated Assault Victimization During the Great American Crime Decline: A Counterfactual Analysis of Rates in Urban, Suburban, and Rural Areas

The United States experienced a dramatic decline in interpersonal violence rates between the early 1990s and mid-2000s. This decline, however, was much steeper in urban and suburban relative to rural areas. Prior research showed changing demographic composition can account for a substantial amount of change in inequality in victimization rates. We employed National Crime Victimization Survey data and counterfactual modeling to determine if changes in demographic composition—including proportion of population young, unmarried, male, unemployed, and in several income groups—of urban, suburban, and rural areas were partially responsible for changes between 1993 and 2005 in (1) area-specific aggravated assault victimization rates and (2) urban–suburban, urban–rural, and suburban–rural victimization rate ratios. Results showed changes in individual demographic characteristics played a very minor role in changes in area-specific assault rates. The one exception was income, which explained a substantial amount of change in victimization rates across all three areas. Changes in demographic composition explained a greater amount of change in rural relative to urban and suburban victimization rates. Changes in demographic composition across these three area types were also responsible for a small proportion of the large changes in the urban–rural and suburban–rural victimization rate ratios over time.

Serious Assault Victim and Incident Characteristics Associated With Police Notification and Treatment in Emergency Rooms in Rural, Suburban, and Urban Areas

Two common sources of violence rates are police data and hospital data on injuries. It is unclear, however, if violence rates calculated using these sources have the same meaning across location types like rural, suburban, and urban areas. We know that characteristics of assault victims and incidents are associated with whether or not the victim reports the incident to the police. If community type moderates this help-seeking behavior—for example, if the impact of sex, age, race, victim–offender relationship, or injury severity on reporting to the police or being treated in an emergency room (ER) is different in rural relative to urban areas—then this selection bias is problematic for comparisons across location type and for including different location types in the same sample. The goal of this study was to determine which victim and incident characteristics are associated with police notification and ER treatment and to see if these characteristics are the same across rural, suburban, and urban areas. We used National Crime Victimization Survey data on reporting serious assaults to the police and being treated in an ER as a result of a serious assault. Results revealed that (1) police notification is much more likely to occur than ER treatment, (2) a majority of victim and incident characteristics are significantly associated with police notification, (3) few victim and incident characteristics are significantly associated with ER treatment, and (4) there is only chance moderation by location type. Findings suggest that both police and hospital data on serious assaults can be used to make comparisons across rural, suburban, and urban communities without being limited by disproportionate inclusion or exclusion of incidents associated with victim and incident characteristics. However, comparisons between the two data sources should be made with caution due to the different victim and incident characteristics associated with police notification and ER treatment.