Mitchell B. Chamlin

The effects of the 2006 Russian alcohol policy on alcohol-related mortality: An interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUNDnThe aim of this study was to determine the impact of a set of 2006 Russian alcohol policies on alcohol-related mortality in the country.nnnMETHODSnWe used autoregressive integrated moving average interrupted time series techniques to model the impact of the policy on the number of sex-specific monthly deaths of those aged 15+ years due to alcohol poisoning, alcoholic cardiomyopathy, alcoholic liver cirrhosis, and alcohol-related mental and behavioral disorders. The time series began in January 2000 and ended in December 2010. The alcohol policy was implemented in January 2006.nnnRESULTSnThe alcohol policy resulted in a significant gradual and sustained decline in male deaths due to alcohol poisoning (ωo = -92.631, p < 0.008, δ1 = 0.883, p < 0.001) and in significant immediate and sustained declines in male (ω0 = -63.20, p < 0.05) and female (ω0 = -64.28, p < 0.005) deaths due to alcoholic liver cirrhosis.nnnCONCLUSIONSnThe 2006 suite of alcohol policies in Russia was responsible for an annual decline of about 6,700 male alcohol poisoning deaths and about 760 male and about 770 female alcoholic liver cirrhosis deaths. Without the alcohol policy, male alcohol poisoning deaths would have been 35% higher and male and female alcoholic liver cirrhosis deaths would have been 9 and 15% higher, respectively. We contextualize our findings in relation to declining mortality in Russia and to results from recent studies of the impact of this law on other causes of death.

The impact of a national alcohol policy on deaths due to transport accidents in Russia

AIMSnTo determine the impact of a suite of 2006 Russian alcohol control policies on deaths due to traffic accidents in the country.nnnDESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTSnWe used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) interrupted time-series techniques to model the impact of the intervention on the outcome series. The time-series began in January 2000 and ended in December 2010. The alcohol policy was implemented in January 2006, providing 132 monthly observations in the outcome series, with 72 months of pre-intervention data and 60 months of post-intervention data.nnnMEASUREMENTSnThe outcome variables were the monthly number of male- and female-specific deaths of those aged 15+ years due to transport accidents in Russia.nnnFINDINGSnThe 2006 set of alcohol policies had no impact on female deaths due to traffic accidents (ω0 u2009= -50.31, P = 0.27). However, the intervention model revealed an immediate and sustained monthly decrease of 203 deaths due to transport accidents for males (ω0 u2009= -203.40, P = 0.04), representing an 11% reduction relative to pre-intervention levels.nnnCONCLUSIONnThe implementation of the suite of 2006 Russian alcohol control policies is partially responsible for saving more than 2400 male lives annually that would otherwise have been lost to traffic accidents.

Aggregation bias and the benign neglect hypothesis

The results from prior examinations of the benign neglect hypothesis are mixed. The current research seeks to determine the extent to which aggregation bias can account for these inconsistencies. Guided by insights from the policing literature, characteristics of the social contexts of police districts in a Midwestern city are used to explore the relationship between racial conflict and police behavior. The results from autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analyses of the influence of a race riot on arrests fail to produce evidence of benign neglect at the city level. However, when data are disaggregated to the police district level of analysis evidence of benign neglect is found in the area of the city where the least powerful, black residents reside. The implications of these findings are discussed.

An assessment of the intended and unintended consequences of Arizona's Self-Defense, Home Protection Act

On 24 April 2006 the Governor of Arizona signed into law a series of amendments to Title 13 of the Arizona Revised Statutes (Senate Bill 1145 2006). A key feature of this legislation, the so-called ‘stand your ground’ provision, states that individuals have no duty to retreat before opting to use deadly physical force to thwart the commission of a variety of violent offenses (Senate Bill 1145, Section 13–411 2006). The purpose of the study is to determine whether or not the modification of the criteria for the justification for the use of deadly force by civilians achieved its manifest goal of making individuals more capable of resisting violent crime or had the unintended consequence of increasing the likelihood that individuals would experience a violent death. The interrupted time series analyses indicate that, contrary to legislative intent, the implementation of Arizonas Self-Defense, Home Protection Act made life more dangerous for those living within the state.

Falsifying Merton's Macro-Level Anomie Theory of Profit-Motivated Crime: A Research Note

The objective of our article is straightforward. We seek to derive, and to confront with data, an empirical model of Robert K. Mertons macro-level, anomie theory of profit-motivated crime. We use Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression equations to estimate the joint effects of measures of the acceptance of material success goals and absolute and relative deprivation, respectively, on cross-national rates of drug trafficking. Consistent with the predictions derived from Mertonian anomie theory, the coefficients for the product terms (the acceptance of success goals × absolute deprivation and the acceptance of success goals × relative deprivation) are significant and positive. This investigation provides what we believe is the first evaluation of the Mertonian proposition that the cultural (goals) and structural (means) components of social systems operate together to increase the level of profit-motivated crime. What is missing, of course, is a measure of anomie. We are forced to infer that anomie is the causal mechanism that links the joint influence of culture and social structure on pecuniary crime. Admittedly, this is an unavoidable limitation of the current investigation.

Extending the Hours of Operation of Alcohol Serving Establishments: An Assessment of an Innovative Strategy to Reduce the Problems Arising From the After-Hours Consumption of Alcohol

On May 11, 2009, the City of San Marcos, Texas adopted an ordinance that allowed local bars to extend their hours of operation from midnight until 2 a.m. The objective of this initiative, which went into effect on June 4, 2009, was to minimize the problems that arise from the consumption of alcohol. The present investigation uses interrupted time series autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA]) modeling techniques to analyze weekly data to assess the impact of the ordinance, along with a limited increase in patrol strength in the downtown district, on the number of calls for service involving verbal disturbances, physical disturbances, public intoxication, and driving under the influence of alcohol. Overall, the interrupted time series analyses indicate that neither the city council’s nor the police department’s strategies for mitigating some of the negative consequences of the consumption of alcoholic beverages in bars and taverns were successful. The implications of these findings for lessening alcohol-related conflicts between bar patrons and other residents of the community are discussed.

An interrupted time series analysis of the differential impact of New Jersey’s BAC legislation on driver and passenger crash fatalities

Abstract Most research, drawing on deterrence and rational choice models of social action, examines the effects of reductions of blood alcohol concentration [BAC] limits to secure drunk driving convictions on the total volume of crash fatalities. This paper extends this work by investigating the impact of New Jersey’s BAC legislation on total and disaggregated crash fatalities. The results from the interrupted times series analyses show that reducing the BAC limit to 0.8 has no effect on total or driver fatalities, but has a negative and lasting effect on passenger fatalities. The implications of these findings for future research are discussed.

Pharmaceutical sales of pseudoephedrine: the impact of electronic tracking systems on methamphetamine crime incidents.

BACKGROUND AND AIMSnElectronic tracking systems (ETS) are used extensively in pharmacies across the United States and Australia to control suspicious sales of pseudoephedrine. This study measures the impact of one ETS-Project STOP-on the capacity of police to reduce production, supply and possession of methamphetamine.nnnDESIGNnUsing official police data of incidents of production, supply and possession from January 1996 to December 2011 (nxa0=xa0192 data points/months over 16xa0years), we used a quasi-experimental, time-series approach.nnnSETTINGnThe State of Queensland, Australia.nnnPARTICIPANTSnNo individual participants are included in the study. The unit of analysis is reported police incidents.nnnMEASUREMENTSnThe study examines the impact of the ETS on production (nxa0=xa05938 incidents), drug supply and trafficking (nxa0=xa020u2009094 incidents) and drug possession or use (nxa0=xa0118u2009926) of methamphetamine.nnnFINDINGSnIntroduction of the ETS in November 2005 was associated with an insignificant decrease (Pxa0=xa00.15) in the production of methamphetamine. The intervention was associated with a statistically significant increase in supply incidents (Pxa0=xa00.0001). There was no statistically significant effect on the incidence of possession (Pxa0=xa00.59).nnnCONCLUSIONSnElectronic tracking systems can reduce the capacity of people to produce methamphetamine domestically, but seem unlikely to affect other aspects of the methamphetamine problem such as possession, distribution and importation.

Use of Force and Home Safety: An Impact Assessment of Oklahoma’s Stand Your Ground Law

ABSTRACT Subsequent to Florida’s enactment of the first castle doctrine law in 2005, no less than 22 additional states have passed some sort of legislation that allows civilians to use deadly force to protect their property from violent and nonviolent offenders. Given the pervasiveness of these legislative acts, it becomes increasing important to find out whether or not they achieve their manifest goal of reducing the amount of crime within a jurisdiction. Toward this end, we employ interrupted time series modeling techniques to assess the impact of Oklahoma’s Stand Your Ground Law on the number of residential and non-residential burglaries. The findings indicate that while the legislative initiative achieved its manifest goal of reducing the number of residential burglaries, it simultaneously had the unintended consequence of increasing the number of non-residential burglaries.

A time series factor analysis of integrative and coercive social control

Most research, drawing on the conflict perspective of social control, examines the causal influence of integrative control (welfare, racial residential segregation) on coercive control (police resources, incarceration). Unfortunately, the results from these studies tend to be inconsistent; often varying across eras, research designs, model specifications, and outcome variables. The present investigation, which is also rooted in conflict theory, attempts to make sense of these disparate findings. Toward this end, we use factor analytic, time series procedures to determine whether or not there is a single underlying dimension of macro-social control (the Quinney hypothesis) or if there are two dimensions of macro-social control (Blauner–Spitzer hypothesis). In brief, the results from the factor analyses of annual, national-level measures of welfare recipients, military personnel, psychiatric hospital patients, policing expenditures, and imprisonment fail to confirm either hypothesis concerning the interrelationships among differing mechanisms of macro-social control.